If Beijing goes through with the reported plan to replace Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam, it could help ease tensions in the semi-autonomous region as the pro-democracy protests turned more violent in recent weeks, experts told Sputnik
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 23rd October, 2019) If Beijing goes through with the reported plan to replace Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam, it could help ease tensions in the semi-autonomous region as the pro-democracy protests turned more violent in recent weeks, experts told Sputnik.Triggered by a controversial extradition bill, massive protests in Hong Kong continued after Lam agreed to officially withdraw the proposed legislative amendments in early September, as protesters expanded their demands towards investigation into alleged police brutality and greater democratic rights such as universal suffrage. Lam also became the target of protesters, who call for her resignation over her inaction in responding to their demands.
During a leaked speech with business leaders in the city in late August, Lam admitted that she could not go out to visit shopping malls or hair salons, because her whereabouts would be published on social media. The chief executive was forced to deliver her annual policy speech by video last week, after being heckled by pro-democracy lawmakers when she began speak in the city's legislature.
Since the beginning of October, a small group of radical protesters started to escalate their violent tactics by targeting the city's subway system and businesses believed to be operated by Beijing-friendly owners. During the protests in recent weeks, the entrances of a number of subway stations were set on fire and several stores and banks were vandalized. Without further concessions from local authorities, protesters showed no sign of backing down.
As the political crisis dragged on for more than four months in Hong Kong, Chinese authorities in Beijing started to contemplate a plan to replace Lam with an "interim" chief executive, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday citing "people briefed on the deliberations." The report said Lam's successor could come into office by March next year, if the plan received approval from Chinese President Xi Jinping.
If Beijing does move forward with the plan to replace the embattled Hong Kong leader, such changes could indeed help ease tensions and convince some of the demonstrators to go home, political analysts suggested.
"I don't know how reliable the sources are from the Financial Times and I don't want to speculate on how truthful it will be. But for the potential impact, I think it will surely be a plus for some protesters. Whether it will appease everyone, it'll be very difficult to say. I think there'll be some positive progression towards resolving the issue. But I don't think it'll be a one-off cure for everything in Hong Kong," Mathew Wong, a political science professor at the education University of Hong Kong, told Sputnik.
The expert explained that some protesters could view the replacement of Lam as a sign of good faith from Beijing.
"Some of them [the protesters] will not be entirely pleased. But I think this [replacing Lam] will surely be positive for some protesters who do not see any progression towards the situation. If at least we can get rid of her [Lam], it will probably be a sign of good faith that Beijing is willing to make some concessions. That's definitely a good thing I think," he said.
However, the leadership change in Hong Kong may not be enough to satisfy protesters whose ultimate goal is universal suffrage, other political analysts argued.
"If replacing the top leader in Hong Kong could help resolve the crisis in Hong Kong, I believe Chinese authorities in Beijing wouldn't hesitate with such a move. It's absolutely possible. But I think the biggest issue is that even if they change the leader in Hong Kong, it won't be very helpful because the problem is not about who the leader is, but about universal suffrage," Li Datong, a Beijing-based political analyst who served as an editor at the Communist Party newspaper China Youth Daily, told Sputnik.
After the ongoing political crisis in Hong Kong started in June, Chinese authorities in Beijing have always voiced support for the beleaguered chief executive.
But Professor Wong from the Education University of Hong Kong pointed out that Lam had become a liability for Beijing because of her missteps in handling the crisis.
"I think Carrie Lam has committed too many blunders during the handling of the situation for Beijing to bail her out. She's become more of a liability for Beijing. I think Beijing may have some incentives to remove her," he said.
The Hong Kong scholar suggested that it would be best if Lam could confirm her planned departure by early next month than waiting until March, because the news of her proposed removal could help pacify some of the protesters.
By offering concessions such as replacing Lam, Beijing could be trying to avoid ending the political crisis in Hong Kong with a heavy handed military crackdown, Li, the Beijing-based political analyst, noted.
"I think Beijing is facing limited options, if it doesn't want to offer concessions like this. The situation has become almost unsolvable. It's impossible for Beijing to send in the army to enforce martial law in Hong Kong," he said.
The expert, who witnessed China's bloody military crackdown in 1989 firsthand, explained that military crackdowns would not be very effective in dealing with massive protests in big cities like Hong Kong.
"Even if Beijing deployed troops into the streets of Hong Kong, it wouldn't be very effective. We have all seen how thousands of Chinese soldiers poured into Beijing in 1989. But once the military moved in, they were swarmed and almost disappeared among the large number of protesters. That's why the soldiers had to open fire against innocent civilians to keep them off the streets. If the Chinese military does the same in Hong Kong, the global responses today would be catastrophic for Chinese authorities," he said.
Facing a similar pro-democracy movement in China in 1989, Chinese authorities mobilized the military to crack down on the protesters, who were mostly led by university students, in Beijing. Thousands of demonstrators were allegedly killed as tanks and live ammunition were used against them. Chinese authorities defended their bloody crackdown as necessary to prevent the country from descending into chaos triggered by a "counter-revolutionary riot."
If Beijing decides to replace Lam, it could be viewed as a sign of weakness by offering further concessions to the protesters. When Lam decided to withdraw the extradition bill officially, that decision drew criticism from online commentators from mainland China, where many people supported the central government's narrative that the protests in Hong Kong were part of a separatist movement.
Li, the Beijing-based political analyst, explained that Beijing did not have to worry about nationalistic sentiment from people in mainland China, because the government could easily silence any alternative views.
"There won't be any domestic pressure for Beijing [from nationalists]. If the central government decides to support universal suffrage in Hong Kong, you won't see any opinions against such a decision online in China the next day. Most of the Chinese nationalists only follow directives and guidance from authorities. The recent controversy related to the NBA is a good example of how Chinese authorities could easily manipulate and then silence the nationalistic sentiment," he said.
After Houston Rocket General Manager Daryl Morey posted a picture on Twitter in support of the protesters in Hong Kong last week, the post triggered a firestorm in China where both state media and angry basketball fans demanded an apology from Morey for violating the nation's sovereignty by supporting what they viewed as a separatist movement.
When Morey and the NBA expressed regrets over the post but refused to issue a formal apology, Chinese tv channels halted the broadcast of NBA games and a number of Chinese companies also decided to suspend their partnerships with the NBA. Nationalistic basketball fans also called on others to stop watching NBA games.
After the initial nationalistic response from China triggered further backlash against Beijing in the United States, Chinese authorities decided to rein in the nationalistic sentiment against the NBA to avoid risking an international boycott of the upcoming Winter Olympics scheduled to be held in the country in 2022.
As a result, police in Shenzhen confiscated banners saying "Hong Kong belongs to China forever" from angry Chinese basketball fans who wanted to protest during the NBA preseason games being played in the city.
