WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 03rd November, 2022) The outcome of the US midterm elections on November 8 could pose challenges to the passage of future funding for Ukraine amid reluctance by some Republicans about continuing the foreign aid, although the support is likely to continue in the next Congress.
Both the House of Representatives and Senate are up for grabs, with Democrats seeking to retain control of both chambers while Republicans seek to obtain a majority of their own. All 435 House seats will be contests alongside 35 Senate seats to determine control of Congress for the latter half of US President Joe Biden's term.
The conflict in Ukraine and related funding from Congress has been among the major policy issues heading into midterms,
Since the beginning of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, Congress has approved approximately $70 billion in aid to Kiev, a massive spending spree that both parties initially backed, including anti-war progressives, although the sentiment seems to have recently changed on at least one side of the political aisle.
In October, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy pledged that if Republicans obtain a majority in the lower chamber, Ukraine would not get a "blank check" for aid. He also said the public will not be willing to continue extraordinary funding to Ukraine amid concerns about a recession.
Following the statement, Biden said he worried about the future of congressional aid to Ukraine.
"These guys (Republicans) don't get it. It's a lot bigger than Ukraine. It's Eastern Europe. It's NATO. It's really serious, serious consequential outcomes," Biden said.
Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rejected the idea that Congress is providing Ukraine a blank check.
"If the Republican Party takes the House of Representatives, more funding will be more difficult to get, but the Biden administration will not change course as they are convinced the Ukraine proxy war is serving their interests by weakening Russia, even under heightened threat of nuclear war," Beau Grosscup, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at California State University, Chico, told Sputnik.
However, Republican reluctance to continue funding Ukraine is not ubiquitous across the party. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said a Republican majority in the upper chamber will focus on ensuring timely delivery of weapons to Ukraine, as well as greater allied assistance.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken cited bipartisan support for Ukraine aid as a source of his confidence in the continuation of assistance from Congress even if Republicans gain control in the midterms.
Support for Ukraine is more uniform among Democrats, although 30 Democratic House lawmakers drafted a letter to Biden urging him to change the administration's approach towards diplomacy and direct negotiations with Russia. The letter was later withdrawn after Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal claimed the letter was months-old and released without vetting.
"I think that support for the Ukraine war is weakening, although the tendency is still in its earliest stages. The disastrous letter signed by 30 members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus - both the text and the cowardly backpedaling that followed - is a sign of how tentative the process still is," historian and political commentator Dan Lazare told Sputnik.
Anti-war sentiment will strengthen the longer the conflict continues and as economic consequences intensify, Lazare said. Due to the unpredictable nature of the conflict and potential escalations, US policy is likewise difficult to predict, Lazare added.
The uncertainty is leaving Ukrainian officials concerned about the future of assistance to their country, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. Kiev is working with both Republicans and Democrats to ensure aid continues, Kuleba said.
In contrast to Ukrainian officials, only 1-2% of voters say the conflict in Ukraine is a significant issue in determining who to vote for in the midterms, Quinnipiac University Poll Director Doug Schultz said in October.
On Tuesday, a new Rasmussen Reports survey showed only two percent of voters polled named Ukraine as the most important issue for them in the midterms.
Although congressional support for Ukraine appears widespread, the willingness to involve US resources in the conflict may stem more from a desire by lawmakers to counter Russia rather than to aid Ukraine.
"The original goal that was widely accepted, at first, was to assist Ukraine in pushing back against Russian incursions into Ukrainian territory. Very quickly, this goal has evolved into working with Ukraine and with western allies, potentially, to topple the duly elected administration in Russia," political commentator and former hedge fund manager Charles Ortel told Sputnik.
Regime change is a policy of suspect merit that does little to advance US strategic interests, Ortel added.
Moreover, prolonging the conflict between Ukraine serves to help sustain the political unity of the collective West around the fight against Russia, University of Rhode Island Professor of Peace Studies Nikolai Petro told Sputnik.
"The overwhelming majority still views the main goal of this war as not to help Ukrainians, but to weaken Russia while using Ukraine as a country of mercenaries and its citizens as cannon fodder to achieve this goal," Professor Edward Lozansky, President of American University in Moscow, also told Sputnik.
However, almost half of Americans, 47%, oppose sending military aid to Ukraine without engaging in diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, a poll by the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft found in September.
Moreover, the poll found that roughly 58% of Americans would oppose current Ukraine aid levels if gas prices and goods continue to rise in price, and 57% support immediate peace negotiations.
Biden administration officials have repeatedly said that the onus to end the war is on Russia, and that the US's role in the conflict is to set Ukraine up for a well-positioned spot at the negotiation table. Russia shows no signs of interest in such dialogues, the administration claims.
Officials from countries including Turkey, India, Hungary, Italy and the Holy See have recently advocated for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
However, former Virginia State Senator Richard Black told Sputnik in August that the Biden administration is unlikely to allow peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to occur ahead of midterm elections.
A potential peace plan proposed by billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, which would leave Crimea under Russian control and hold UN-monitored referenda in other regions seeking to leave Ukraine, was condemned by US and Ukrainian officials.
One-third of eligible US voters say they agree with Musk's plan, according to a Redfield and Wilton Strategies/Newsweek poll released Monday. Over half of respondents, 52%, believe that Ukraine should focus on recovering territories lost since the start of Russia's special military operation on February 24 instead of trying to recover Crimea, the poll also said.
In comparison, around 26% of Ukrainians believe the conflict should be diplomatically resolved as soon as possible, while around 70% support fighting to victory, which 91% of respondents said would entail retaking territory lost since 2014, including Crimea, a Gallup poll released in October found.
