According to provisional results by the National election authority (l'ANE), the Central African Republic's incumbent president, Faustin-Archange Touadera, is headed toward winning a second term in last month's ballot getting 53.9 percent of the votes in the first round of elections, but no prospects for national reconciliation are looming, experts told Sputnik
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 11th January, 2021) According to provisional results by the National election authority (l'ANE), the Central African Republic's incumbent president, Faustin-Archange Touadera, is headed toward winning a second term in last month's ballot getting 53.9 percent of the votes in the first round of elections, but no prospects for national reconciliation are looming, experts told Sputnik.
The country is still awaiting the Constitutional Court's confirmation of the provisional results while the security situation remains tense. Meanwhile, 10 candidates out of 17 have called for a repeat election citing a low turnout as only half of the country's voters were able to register in light of the continued violence.
DISTURBED VOTE AND LEGITIMACY OF ELECTIONS
As the voting was disturbed in the Central African Republic due to violence and attacks perpetrated by armed groups ahead of the presidential and legislative elections, which allowed just over 55 percent of polling stations to remain open, questions remain whether the results of the ballot could be considered legitimate.
"There are two theories about legitimacy: one says that it is a decision eventually reached by the community of states and in this case one may believe that the unity of the international community to get the elections achieved in car would translate into a recognition of the legitimacy of the winner, i.e. Mr. Touadera. There is another one that is not well considered in Central Africa (beyond CAR): it is up to the people to give or refuse legitimacy to its ruler. In this second case, one may easily dispute the legitimacy of the elections winner since the conditions of the electoral process were very bad, long before the day when people cast their votes," Roland Marchal, a political scientist specializing in African studies at the Centre for International Studies (CERI) at Sciences Po, Paris, said.
Crepin Marius Mouguia, a researcher at the University of Leiden, Netherlands, believes that the results in the regions where the voting took place as scheduled, like in the capital Bangui, could be trusted.
"The elections remain legitimate in the zones where the voting was not disturbed. The largest part of the population has actively participated in elections despite the threats of the armed groups," the expert said.
He added that the new presidential elections are unlikely.
"I don't predict the new presidential elections in CAR. The National election authority will focus on organizing partial legislative elections in the zones that haven't voted," Mouguia said.
Marchal in his turn pointed out the fact that the (l'ANE) did not act independently.
"The civilian opposition was rightly concerned by the fact that the freedom for campaigning was very restricted by the armed groups that were allied with Touadera until the two last weeks before the election day and that the ANE (National Authority for Elections) was not free of political interferences. Although one should be careful with the current surge of many allegations, it seems clear that the independence of the ANE was notional and that many illegal steps were taken the day of the elections to have the incumbent as the winner," Marchal said.
"I still do not understand why the international community has pushed so strongly to get the elections in time while it was clear that the security situation was shaky and many questions were raised on the quality of the electoral process. One thing is to avoid a political vacuum; another one is to allow elections to get rigged and neither free nor fair," Marchal added.
Experts believe that the opposition in CAR could have good chances in this election if it had more unity and focused more on election preparation, rather than trying to prove possible election fraud.
"The opposition was right to protest but missed a unified front with a clear political agenda that would have convinced the international community," Marchal said.
In turn, Mouguia argued that the opposition should have been focused on the election itself and not on assumptions that the vote would be rigged.
"The opposition would have stand real chances if it was concentrated on the elections and worked for it. But it wasn't what it has been doing. It was rather contributing to assumptions that the vote will be stolen and relied on hypothetical transition," Mouguia argued.
The Central African opposition coalition, COD20, has stated that it will not recognize the election results and stage protests, but they would not attract many followers among the population, Mouguia believes.
"The opposition seems weakened following the silence it kept regarding the killings in the provinces and its proximity to [former CAR President Francois] Bozize who joined the rebellion. The results of the vote in Bangui prove it. Therefore I think that they will contest (and they do it already) the results of the elections, which it boycotted in the meantime. But it will not be followed by the population, which seeks peace to attend to its preoccupations," he said.
On January 4, the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CDC) rebels took control of Bangassou city some 750 kilometers away from the capital Bangui, which remains their target. CDC consists of a dozen of rebel groups, supported by Bozize, who was invalidated from the presidential race.
Marchal believes that despite the large presence of troops in the capital, including from the UN mission (MUNISCA), the Central African military (FACA) and the country's Domestic Security Forces (FSI), the situation remains unstable and the protests may erupt.
"While MINUSCA, FACA and FSI are numerous in Bangui, many sectors of the population are upset by the results of the election. Nothing is impossible," the expert said.
Experts believe that CAR will continue plunging into insecurity, engulfed in war with the numerous rebel groups, which would mean that the Khartoum peace deal, signed nearly two years ago and expected to reconcile the different ethnic groups in the country, have failed.
According to Marchal, it seems that "troubles inside Bangui" may occur sooner than later.
"Touadera's inner circle seems to beat the war drum and the Khartoum peace agreement signed in February 2019 is over. The question is what kind of political process is possible in such a situation? I doubt any. I also doubt that war can be won in this country for many reasons linked to the nature of armed groups, the number and quality of international forces and the mere geography," Marchal argued.
Mouguia also believes that Touadera could again start a dialogue with the armed groups, but the involvement of different foreign powers in the conflict in CAR further complicates the situation.
"I very much fear that yes [security situation will get worse]. The forces in place (the armed groups vs the opposition vs the government) seem to be relying on foreign powers, which makes believe that the conflict is fed by external interests and everyone would stubbornly defend his interests. The future doesn't seem reassuring," Mouguia said.
According to the researcher, the elected president may engage in dialogue with the armed rebel groups.
"I think that the elected president could engage in discussion with the armed groups. It was his bid at the beginning of his first mandate. This is the solution also advocated for by the heads of states of the [Economic Community of Central African States] ECCAS. Meanwhile, the dialogue will be interrupted again if the attacks continue, given that the president has the new allies in terms of security and that he started sanctioning the leaders of the armed groups who deviate from the Khartoum agreement," Mourguia added.
