LONDON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 08th August, 2019) To seek independence will be an "obvious" choice for Wales in an event of Scotland's exit from the United Kingdom and major consequences of a no-deal Brexit for the wider fabric of the UK society, with a possible result being the end of the UK system of devolved governance within a decade, Sion Jobbins, the chairman of the pro-Welsh independence group YesCymru, told Sputnik.
"Looking at that Wales has a choice. Devolution won't hold, so if Scotland and [Northern] Ireland go, then devolution will be dead within ten years. So the choice for me is an obvious one, which is independence. There'll be power grabs, lots of words like 'cooperation' and claims that Westminster has our back. At the moment devolution makes sense with Scotland, Northern Ireland having devolved governments, but it won't hold if Scotland goes, and if that happens, Northern Ireland will certainly unite. So you can't have devolution then with just Westminster and Wales," Jobbins said.
It is particularly the new UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, who can lead to more people taking independence from Westminster more seriously as, given his insistence on being prepared for a no-deal scenario and its arguable impact on the UK economy, the Welsh think they could govern themselves better than Westminster, Jobbis claims.
"There are people who support Johnson here, so there are people who will vote for him and support him. But there's polarization and a lot of people who are dismayed with the situation and the prospect of a general election and his inadequacy for high public office," the Welsh politician added.
Fear of a no-deal Brexit was also arguably a factor, he said, given that it was "absolute madness" to exit the EU without a deal, with areas that voted for Brexit likely to be "the ones that are going to be left behind" economically.
"We're very suspicious that Westminster will essentially use the excuse of Brexit to try a power grab, which we think will happen if the UK leaves the EU where the upper class, the oligarchy in the UK, will try to grab more powers for Westminster," Jobbis said.
His comments come in wake of what appears to be renewed interest in Welsh independence as the United Kingdom edges closer to its likely exit from the European Union on October 31. Over 8,000 pro-independence activists marched through the Welsh town of Caernarfon on July 27.
In Scotland, too, renewed interest for independence has surfaced, with a sizable 47 percent of respondents of a recent Lord Ashcroft Poll saying they would want to hold a second referendum within the next two years.
Although support for a continued union with Scotland, England and Northern Ireland appears to remain decisive in Wales overall, arguments for independence seem to be on the increase, with a North Wales Live poll involving over 2,200 respondents in May revealing a pro-independence majority of 59 percent.
While it is premature to speak of Welsh seceding in the near future, the discussion of the subject has become more mainstream over the past half a year, so Wales has to be prepared when time comes to start the independence movement, the YesCymru leader is convinced.
"What's starting to happen is a development, a discussion... and people are starting to seriously think that it'll be too late the day after Scotland votes for independence for Wales to only just start talking about independence. We need to start this movement now. Unless we start campaigning now on the case for independence we're going to be too late. So it's early days but it is quite exciting and things are starting to move here," Jobbis said.
In September 2014, Scotland voted by 55 percent to 45 percent to stay in the United Kingdom. In April, First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon said that Scotland might hold another independence referendum until the end of the current parliament's term in 2021 if Brexit is not revoked. A month later, the Scottish Government published the legal framework for future referendums, including a potential independence vote "to allow the Scottish people to choose our own future rather than having a Brexit future imposed on us," in Sturgeon's words.
During the 2016 Brexit referendum, 62 percent of voters in Scotland decided to remain part of the European Union, while 52.5 percent of voters in Wales chose leaving. Across the United Kingdom, the Leave vote won.
