MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 09th May, 2020) The United States is likely to fail in its pursuit to extend the international ban on arms sales to Iran beyond the October expiration date as neither retrieving its membership in the nuclear deal nor attempting to initiate a vote in the UN Security Council appear to be a viable option, experts told Sputnik.�
Last week, State Secretary Mike Pompeo said that the United States would do what it takes to make sure that Iran cannot buy or sell conventional weapons after the UN embargo expires on October 18 this coming fall.
One such way would be to convince the UN Security Council to extend the embargo � a shady avenue, given that Russia and China, both set and ready to sell weapons to Iran, have a veto power to block any of the US' resolutions.
Another way would be to trigger the snapback mechanism under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which enables any one signatory to punish any other signatory for breaching their commitments. The controversy here is that Washington is formally no longer a party to the deal as US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew his country back in May 2018.
Playing ambiguity of legal interpretations, Pompeo said the US remained a party to the nuclear accord because it was still listed as such in UNSC Resolution 2231 in which the JCPOA is enshrined.
"It makes no sense to have publicly withdrawn from the JCPOA and then seek to claim that they are still part of the agreement as a way to impose sanctions," M. V. Ramana, Simons Chair in Disarmament, Global and Human Security with the University of British Columbia's Liu Institute for Global Issues, told Sputnik.
All the more so at a time when Iran, much like the rest of the world, has thrown all efforts at fighting the coronavirus pandemic, the expert opined.
"I do think this will be vetoed at the UN Security Council and so I don't expect the United States to succeed in this effort," M. V. Ramana said.
According to the expert, despite the JCPOA "not doing very well," it is still better to have at least some sort of a framework for regulating Iran's nuclear program than none at all.
Lajos Szaszdi Leon-Borja, a lecturer at the Inter-American University of Puerto Rico, concurred, saying that it appears to be a loose-loose situation for the US.
"The US will not be able to renew the Iran arms embargo that ends in October. Russia and China as permanent members of the UN Security Council will veto any attempt by the US and its allies in the Security Council to extend the arms embargo. The US will attempt to unilaterally impose more sanctions, but Washington will not be able to renew the UN-mandated arms embargo against Iran. I believe that in terms of new sanctions, the US has no more shots left, so to speak, and in that regard it cannot influence Iran, for Tehran has already worst US sanctions like those that forbid other countries from buying its exports of oil and minerals," Leon-Borja told Sputnik.
Additionally, there will apparently be a legal tangle around who violated what if the US where to reclaim its membership in the JCPOA.
"Any US attempt to claim it never left the JCPOA would instantly mean it violated it when it did not remove sanctions as per agreement. It's one thing not to remove sanctions and introduce new ones if you are outside the deal and quite another to openly violate your obligations. I do not think Pompeo and his advisers seriously considered it: more likely, they prefer their membership to be selective: only at times and on issues when it's to their advantage," Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Nonproliferation, told Sputnik.
"Theoretically, US can claim that it never left the JCPOA, but it would be a long shot," Sokov said.
For one thing, it will cause a drift within the Security Council, may be even a "serious conflict," it was argued.
"Perhaps [the US] can muster some support and it will be a VERY hard decision for European countries, but Russia will veto any such claims if it ever came to a vote. I am less certain about China, which seems pretty happy to abstain knowing Russia will take the political prices of veto, though lately China seems more inclined to make its position clear," Sokov said.
According to the disarmament expert, the European members have no legal grounds to object ending the arms embargo as scheduled, but they will most probably not sell arms to Tehran anyways, fearing a backlash from the US.
It means that most supply will likely come from Moscow and Beijing. However, the volume of trade should not be expected to be significant as Iran simply does not have much money after sanctions and COVID-19, the expert said.
"Still, even limited deals will create a new US backlash and new sanctions - not only on Iran, but also on countries that trade with Iran. Arms embargo may legally end, but this will not stop US from seeking to introduce it de facto. This will also be one of the reasons why Europeans will not sell arms to Iran," Sokov said.
While this backlash will likely scare off the European countries, as opined by Sokov, they will be of little importance for Russia, according to Lajos Szaszdi Leon-Borja from the Inter-American University of Puerto Rico.
"Russia as a potential exporter of weapons will not be intimidated by the threat of US sanctions, with Russia already under U.S. sanctions intended to impact its arms exports by sanctioning those countries that would buy Russian weapon systems," he said.
While it is hard to forecast consequences of this scenario on the regional level, Sokov said he'd expect the situation to worsen in the middle East, while Leon-Borja argued the opposite � that a better-armed Iran would mean deterrence against an attack by the US and its regional allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, and consequently a preventive force a regional war that could become a world war.
"Through conventional deterrence, dissuading others from attacking Iran to try to conduct regime change by destroying its infrastructure - like they did in Syria - or to destroy its nuclear program, the Near Eastern region and the world would be a safer place," Leon-Borja said.
