WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 25th January, 2019) The Trump administration may move to impose sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas line, but it will fail to prevent the project from being completed and going into service, Democracy Institute Founder and Director Patrick Basham told Sputnik on Thursday.
"I think sanctions are certainly on the table, could be employed and as is usually the case in a majority of cases with sanctions, the relationship with Russia being a good example, they are usually ineffective, counter-productive and I imagine that would be the case here as well," Basham said.
Sanctions could also be eventually imposed on companies participating in the project because there was such a powerful consensus in favor of imposing and increasing them on Russia in Washington at the moment, Basham cautioned.
When asked if he thought the dispute could escalate to the level of sanctions, Basham replied, "It could."
One of the under-reported stories in the United States was how the Trump administration has been quite enthusiastic in certain areas to apply sanctions on Russians, he noted.
"That is an instrument that they are happy to use and there is for a variety of reasons there is quite a bit of bipartisan support in America right now for 'anti-Russian' sanctions and the devil is always in the details," he said.
US opposition to Nord Stream 2 was really based around its concern that a successful project gives Russia a great deal of economic influence over Europe, especially Germany, Basham explained.
Following Russian economic influence on Europe, "the Americans fear will be at some point in time, that there will be political influence. America fears that in a hypothetical dispute in the future between the US and Russia, that ... it would be harder for the Germans to back American [interest]," he said.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is competition or potential competition for US liquefied natural gas (LNG) interests, Basham acknowledged.
"When you look at it in terms of American domestic politics or transatlantic politics between America and its European allies, it all comes down to energy - energy dependence, energy independence, which means we are talking about money," he said.
There was no question that the United States was primarily concerned about Russian influence, Basham emphasized.
"But secondarily [Washington] is also looking to leverage the position of the American energy industry vis a vis Europe," he said.
Basham expressed skepticism that the US criticism of Nord Stream 2 could potentially disrupt the project.
"I don't think it will prove actually to be that effective at all. If we were talking about a hypothetical project that was going to get off the drawing board in five or ten years, then maybe American criticism could prove somewhat effective. But we're talking about a project that is up and running," he said.
The Nord Stream 2 project was a private enterprise and while there was some European support for the US position, there was also some strong European opposition to it, Basham pointed out.
"The timing is poor. I know the Americans have been critical of this for a while, but as of today, the timing is bad for the Americans to win this fight. The economics are now against them because the money has been spent ... It's one of these cases where the horse has bolted the stables," he said.
US criticisms of the pipeline would likely continue but would remain ineffective, Basham predicted.
"It doesn't mean that the Americans, clearly, they're not going to stop criticizing this, but I think with the Americans the rhetoric is largely sincere rhetoric but it's not going to have a tangible impact for which Washington would hope," he said.
The United States will continue, in her view, to defend its interests in Europe and defend what it believes, whether its allies agree or not, and Washington will stand up to Moscow when necessary, Basham assessed.
"That posturing, that positioning will be necessary from Washington's point of view to continue to bang that drum that from the Trump administration's point of view that America is no longer a pushover in terms of its European interests," he observed.
Washington claims the Nord Stream 2 pipeline will increase Europe's dependence on Russian gas. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Trump is pursuing the interests of US companies to sell more LNG on world markets, including Europe.
