A proposed military agreement between India and Japan, which allows navies of both nations to share their military bases for logistics support purposes, could offer the Indian navy a unique opportunity to boost its presence in the West Pacific to deter China's growing influence in the region, experts told Sputnik.
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 24th October, 2018) A proposed military agreement between India and Japan, which allows navies of both nations to share their military bases for logistics support purposes, could offer the Indian navy a unique opportunity to boost its presence in the West Pacific to deter China's growing influence in the region, experts told Sputnik.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are expected to hold the 13th India-Japan summit in Tokyo on October 28 and 29. The leaders could discuss the proposal on an agreement that would lay the framework to allow the armed forces of both nations to provide logistic supplies and services on the principle of reciprocity, Indian press reported.
According to media reports, the agreement would allow armed forces of India and Japan to help each other with logistic supports, including food, water, billet, transport (airlift, if necessary), petroleum, oils, lubricants, clothing, communications, medical services, base support, storage, use of facilities, training services, spare parts, repair and maintenance and airport and seaport services.
Military analysts suggested that the new deal with Japan would allow India to increase its naval presence in the West Pacific regions, as part of the deterrence strategy against China's growing influence.
"The agreement's advantage for India is that it would offer greater access to logistic supplies in the Southern Indian Ocean. The ASEAN countries have always been saying India is not doing enough in terms of having their naval presence in the east of the Malacca Strait. If the Indian navy uses it [the agreement] constructively, it could enhance its presence in the West Pacific under the new concept of mission-based deployment. India can really capitalize upon that. But if it chooses to do so, the fingers will be pointing more toward India. I'm sure the Indian navy is gearing up more units in order to be deployed. It's a good opportunity for us," Gurpreet Khurana, an Indian Navy captain and executive director of the National Maritime Foundation in New Delhi, India, told Sputnik.
The expert stressed that the proposed deal between India and Japan fits both nations' shared goal of seeking strategic deterrence against China's growing military ambitions in the region.
"The proposed India-Japan logistic exchange agreement is a seminal development of a high strategic import for both countries. It is an effort to give effect to the contemporary 'Indo-Pacific' concept articulated by Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the Indian Parliament in August 2007. Preceding this, in 2006, Indian and Japanese analysts had discussed China's increasing politico-military assertiveness in the Indian Ocean. The proposed India-Japan agreement is, therefore, closely related to strategic deterrence against China," he said.
Other political analysts noted that the proposed agreement could have the effect of pushing India closer toward the US-Japan military alliance network.
"Yet having access to a base alone does not necessarily equate to an ability to counter China. What this does however is to further cement India into US-Japan alliance network where India actually helps Japan out in terms of her ability to refuel and resupply when taking far flung operations offshore, and also maintain a certain presence in the Indian Ocean," Dr. Victor Teo, an assistant professor at the Department of Japanese Studies at the University of Hong Kong, told Sputnik.
NO FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION MISSION
Despite the Indian warships' presence in the West Pacific carries the purpose of strategic deterrence against China, India would unlikely to conduct Freedom of Navigation missions, similar to the missions of US naval warships, to avoid escalating regional military tensions, Captain Khurana from the Indian Navy suggested.
"The agreement is very symbolic. The Indian navy would like to show its commitment to countries in the region, especially the ASEAN countries. But it would not conduct Freedom of Navigation missions, because that is something that would be escalating [the tension]. The US navy has already been undertaking such missions. For India, there's a difference in in terms of interpretation of the international law. India would not do that. India would probably enhance its presence with ports visits or missions to help resolve the region's piracy related problems," he said.
In recent years, US warships have conducted regular Freedom of Navigation missions in close proximity to disputed islands in the South China Sea, after the United States accused China of escalating tensions in the region by building military installations on those islands.
At the same time, Professor Teo from the University of Hong Kong foresees increased presence of Japanese navy in the Indian Ocean.
"It [the proposed agreement] marks the forthcoming of a more entrenched Japanese presence in the Indian Ocean region - a move welcome by India has she has expressed concerns about China. Personally I think having the bases will be a further step for Japan to increase other related activities such as joint naval operations such as search and rescue or patrols. In particular, the Nicobar Islands where the bases are supposed to be shared is near to China and Myanmar, and it would also provide for further electronic intelligence enhancement for the Japanese navy. In terms of logistic support and future operation support, the bases make an ideal staging base. So I suppose it is only logical that once the base agreement is signed, we can expect to see Japanese naval presence in the region more often," he said.
Captain Khurana from the Indian Navy pointed out that the proposed agreement between India and Japan should not be interpreted as both countries seeking to build military alliance with each other.
"It is not very accurate to say both nations plan to 'share naval bases.' That's because a naval base has plenty of high-end military facilities, and the current proposal is limited to providing merely replenishment of low-end stores and some essential services on a reciprocal basis. Therefore, the phrase 'share naval bases' may lead to an incorrect perception among the polity in India and Japan that the two countries are building a kind of military-alliance, which is certainly not so. With the political opposition parties looking out for 'ammunition' against Prime Minister Modi, this will be a delightful piece of 'news', but will be very misleading," he said.
Nevertheless, Professor Teo expects further military cooperation between India and Japan in the future.
"I do expect to see as military cooperation long as politicians of the same shade (like-minded like Abe and Modi come and stay in power) are leading the two countries. There actually isn't one country around China that is not concern with China's growing military presence. Therefore we can expect an increase in military cooperation and alignment, particularly between India and Japan - not only because of the China factor, but also because of the fact that these two countries do not actually have conflicting interest," he said.
The expert noted that India may try to avoid moving too close to Japan or the United States, because of its reliance on arms sales from Russia.
"Even though India and Japan might have these political partnerships and strategic rhetoric, India would actually be a lot more circumspect when dealing with China on a one-on-one basis. Beyond that, India still buy arms from Russia - and the Russian factor (particularly with her arms sales) will prevent India from cozying up too much to Japan and the United States," he said.
The expert added that it still remained to be seen to what extent India will be willing to openly challenge China just to make a political alliance with Japan.
