From the rapid change of power by mobs and the storming of the presidential palace in Kyrgyzstan to the mass rallies against the government called for by the president-elect in Moldova and months-long nationwide protests in Belarus in defiance of the president - the post-Soviet space has become one simmering hotbed of unrest in 2020
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 06th January, 2021) From the rapid change of power by mobs and the storming of the presidential palace in Kyrgyzstan to the mass rallies against the government called for by the president-elect in Moldova and months-long nationwide protests in Belarus in defiance of the president - the post-Soviet space has become one simmering hotbed of unrest in 2020.
Mass protests in Belarus started after the presidential election on August 9, which, according to the official results, incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been governing the country since 1994, won by a landslide, securing a sixth consecutive term in office. Lukashenko's main opponent, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a political novice who decided to run only after her husband, Sergei Tikhanovsky, a popular blogger, was jailed in May, rejected the results and called for a recount of the vote with the participation of independent observers.
Shortly after the announcement of the results, Tikhanovskaya fled to Lithuania, from where she continues rallying support from European leaders. She has already met with many EU heads of state who refuse to recognize Lukashenko as president and have already imposed targeted sanctions against Belarusian officials.
Four months after the announcement of the results of the presidential election, Belarussians continue to hit the streets weekly on Sundays for mass rallies, each resulting in multiple detentions. Lukashenko's backers have also organized rallies in his support.
Lukashenko initially announced that there would be no re-elections. Later, however, he said that an early presidential election could possibly be held after a constitutional reform. The incumbent leader has repeatedly said that protests in the republic were being coordinated from abroad, noting Poland, the Czech Republic, Lithuania and Ukraine among the countries playing an active role in the interference. In particular, Lukashenko accused Western countries of directly interfering in the situation in Belarus, noting that the unrest was being coordinated by the United States, and that the EU nations have expressed solidarity with such meddling.
Lukashenko has expressed the belief that those behind the protests were in fact targeting Russia. However, Tikhanovskaya and the Belarus opposition have repeatedly stressed that the protests ongoing in her country were targeted exclusively against the government, not Russia, and pointed to the need to maintain good relations with the eastern neighbor.
Kyrgyzstan, another former Soviet republic, became swept by unrest roughly two months after the start of the Belarussian rallies. The demonstrators poured into the streets of the country's capital of Bishkek on October 5 to express their discontent with the parliamentary election that was held a day earlier. The protesters accused the government of falsification of the election results and buying votes. They demanded that the results be canceled and a fresh election be held.
While clashes raged on between the protesters and the security forces, supporters of opposition parties seized the parliament building, where the presidential administration is located. Kyrgyzstan's Central Election Commission later announced that it had annulled the election results. Stability was only restored after the voluntary resignation of then-President Sooronbay Jeenbekov ten days later. The power and responsibilities of the head of state were transferred to Sadyr Japarov, who later resigned so he could contest the presidential vote in January 2021. Japarov, a controversial figure in Kyrgyz politics, has seen a meteoric rise to power. When the protests began, he was serving time in prison, which began in 2017, and faced the prospect of spending several years in jail after his conviction for taking a government official hostage in 2013. He was freed by the demonstrators.
Unlike Belarus, protests in Kyrgyzstan are not unusual and are commonly marked by political volatility. In 2005, the Tulip revolution, which was initially hailed by many as a promising triumph of democracy in Central Asia, ousted the country's first president, Askar Akayev. However, the following years have seen Kyrgyzstan backsliding toward authoritarian rule by Akayev's successor, Kurmanbek Bakiyev. Bakiyev, in his turn, was ousted in 2010 in the wake of violent mass rallies. The country's fourth leader, Almazbek Atambayev, was imprisoned after he left office. He was charged with organizing mass riots, murder, attempted murder and taking hostages. During the 2020 protests, he was freed by protesters but then imprisoned again.
After the resignation of Jeenbekov, who had been in office since 2017, the country will have the sixth president in its post-Soviet history.
Against the backdrop of unrest in Belarus and Kyrgyzstan, the rallies in Moldova stand apart because the demonstrators do not pursue a complete overhaul of power. The year 2020 was marked by the presidential election, which led to the victory of Maia Sandu over incumbent president Igor Dodon. Ahead of her inauguration, Sandu locked horns with the country's parliament, which backed an amendment - introduced by Dodon's party - to strip Sandu of control over Moldova's intelligence and security service. Sandu called it an attempt by Dodon to "usurp" power.
Following Sandu's calls, the supporters of the president-elect gathered in the streets in early December to call on the country's prime minister, Ion Chicu, to resign to trigger early parliamentary elections. Sandu previously called on the European country's residents to take to the streets in protest against the cabinet's handling of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic crisis. Leaders of Moldova's opposition parties have given their support to the president-elect's calls. The rallies, fueled by calls from Sandu in early December, gathered over 20,000 people who demanded the dissolution of parliament and the resignation of the government.
In the wake of the protests, Moldova's Constitutional Court suspended the amendments that restricted presidential powers.
Sandu had a tough path to power. In 2016, she lost the presidential election to Dodon by a low margin. In 2019, she obtained the position of the country's prime minister. Under her premiership, Moldova began taking steps toward the European Union, as Sandu herself is a pro-European politician, putting herself in opposition to Dodon, who maintained contacts with Russia and regularly spoke with and met Russian officials, including Vladimir Putin. Five months after her appointment, Sandu was ousted as prime minister, following a vote of no-confidence in her government. She remained in a caretaker role until the formation of a new government.
Since the announcement of the results of the election, Sandu has sent mixed signals about her future policies. She announced that she wanted to build a good relationship with Russia and that Chisinau wants to open export to Russia and take care of its citizens who work there. However, she also raised eyebrows from Moscow after she announced that the Russian peacekeepers should leave, adding that the weapons themselves should be moved from Transnistria, and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe-linked civilian observers should be deployed in the region instead. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov responded by saying that the move would not bring peace to Moldova's breakaway region.
Transnistria, which is mostly populated by ethnic Russians and Ukrainians, seceded from Moldova in 1990, fearing the latter's possible reunion with Romania. The split led to an armed conflict that ended in a 1992 ceasefire. De facto, Transnistria has become a territory out of Chisinau's control. The Russian peacekeeping force has been present in Transnistria for 28 years.
Meanwhile, since mid-summer, the country's agriculture industry workers have been staging protests, criticizing the government's lackluster support throughout the year, which is marked by bad harvest, as well as a planned increase in value-added tax (VAT) on agricultural products.
COVID-19 CRISIS MAY BE CATALYST, YET REASONS ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
While the reasons for the protests in all three former Soviet states were different, the COVID-19 pandemic may have become a catalyst for the public's general discontent with the government's handling of the crisis, Talgat Kaliyev, the director of the Institute of Applied Ethnopolitical Research, who also holds Ph.D. in political science, told Sputnik.
"Along with a general slowdown in the growth of the world economy, this [COVID-19 crisis] led to a drop in the standard of living, a tangible decrease in income, which in itself sharply increases the degree of [public] discontent," he added.
Yet, the similarities - discontent over the government's handling of the COVID-19 crisis and the fact that they are all former Soviet republics - between the protests in these three nations end there. Maxim Vilisov, Director of CENTERO, an Independent Think Tank (Moscow) and Deputy Director at the Department of Public Policy at Lomonosov Moscow State University, believes that the protests in Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Moldova are entirely different, and each of them has its own reasons, background and goals.
"The three countries have totally different political and social orders, nor only regimes. Therefore, the protests should be viewed in their contexts.... They are just a political tool, and we don't have to overweigh the geopolitical reasons - the domestic politics play a crucial role," he told Sputnik.
'FALL-SPRING' STORMING OF GOVT PREMISES NOT SURPRISE FOR KYRGYZSTAN
Rigid forms of violence were seen in Kyrgyzstan from the early hours of the demonstrations, with both protesters and police resorting to force. Officers deployed tear gas and stun grenades as the Kyrgyz capital descended into chaos, with many cases of looting reported.
Meanwhile, Kaliyev noted that the traditional "fall-spring" storming of government premises has not been a surprise for the Central Asian nation.
"There are many people in Kyrgyzstan who condemn the marginal behavior of the protesters and the unreasonable storming of the White House [presidential palace in Bishkek], mainly because the destroyed premises will have to be restored at the expense of taxpayers," he said.
Kaliyev believes that the threat of new tensions in the country remains quite high since it experiences difficult socio-economic problems and issues with the external debt, which is over $4 billion.
"I don't think that the Kyrgyz experience deserves to be imitated by any other society. By all indications, the Belarusian society now demonstrates the presence of a higher level of political culture, in contrast to the rude one in Kyrgyz. Moreover, the Bishkek events look like a fight of criminal clans, and not a political process," he said.
PEACEFUL TACTIC BY BELARUSSIAN PROTESTERS
The protests in Belarus, in contrast, were peaceful. Many demonstrations involved retirees and women who descended on the streets to support the victims of clashes between protesters and the police. Tikhanovskaya, as well as the opposition leaders, have repeatedly called upon the demonstrators to abstain from violence and provocations.
However, the response by Belarusian law enforcement - mainly in the first days of the demonstrations - was far from peaceful, with officers deploying tear gas, rubber bullets and stun grenades against the protesters. After the worldwide condemnation, including the criticism from human rights groups and the UN's calls to halt the torture of people in the hands of the officers, Belarussian police stopped the excessive use of force. However, in early December, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said that violations of human rights in Belarus amid the ongoing opposition protest movement continued and were particularly troubling.
According to statistics from the Minsk-based Viasna Human Rights Centre, over 30,000 protesters have been detained and at least 20 died since August. The Belarusian Interior Ministry says that over 120 security officers were injured in the clashes. Lukashenko later admitted that there were excesses during harsh arrests at opposition rallies across the country, adding that these cases will be dealt with.
Meanwhile, Kaliyev agrees that the use of violence by the protesters in Belarus would have led to a tough reaction from the police, as well as from the public and foreign observers.
"In Belarus, the peaceful nature of the protests and how well-behaved the protesters were have aroused the deep sympathy of the audience. And in particular, it became one of the reasons why the demonstrations were joined by many people," Kaliyev said.
According to Vilisov if the protesters in Belarus chose to use the tactics of the Kyrgyz protesters, the outcome of the rallies would have been the opposite.
"The use of violence by the protesters in the very beginning would [have] delegitimized them in front of the state, society and foreign political actors, that would lead to a rapid end of the protests," he explained.
Vilisov also believed that the core difference between the protests in Belarus and Kyrgyzstan lies in the position taken by the political elite.
"In Belarusian case, the political elite is consolidated and none of the elite representatives have openly joined or supported the protesters. That is why the protests in Belarus still have no political consequences, but the movement itself is increasing its political influence and may finally (sooner or later) produce quite strong counter-elite, ready to dismiss and substitute the existing one," he said.
Commenting on the future for Kyrgyzstan, Kaliyev recalled that many Kyrgyz presidents did not leave office by their own will or in line with the constitution.
"The new president, who is likely to become Sadyr Japarov, will inevitably have problems with achieving legitimacy which, given the difficult economic situation and the urgent need for emergency financial assistance, is a top priority. In addition, now the new president is not immune from repeating the sad fate of his predecessors," he said.
As for Belarus, its fate depends on the ability of the official Minsk to reach compromise with the protesters and involve them in the negotiation process, "since so far the statements on the constitutional reform have been unilateral," Kaliyev concluded.
Now, the political future of all the three post-Soviet nations is in uncertainty, as they are functioning in a very complex context, according to Vilisov.
"On the one hand, they are all limitrophes of greater powers, therefore cannot avoid the geopolitical reasons. On the other hand, they failed to build a stable political system and social order, as well as a more or less productive and independent economy. Given that the entire world is facing a huge crisis, the prospects of those countries are very uncertain," he said.
Vilisov says that the selection of choices for the political elites of these countries is based on several constraints, which include getting maximum external support without high risks for their sovereignty.
"This kind of strategy is usually called 'a multivectoral approach.' A 'multiplicity' means a more sophisticated game, not just with two external actors (like the EU and Russia). The players are China, the US, Turkey and some other countries (Ukraine, for example). That all makes the situation more complicated and less predictable," he said.
Yet, the most important thing for the political elites is to preserve the statehood of the country, he said, adding that a "deeper integration" with Russia, as well as any kind of similar integration with other powers, "is almost impossible" for these countries.
While vast integration seems impossible, the connections between the nations are hard to destroy entirely. Kaliyev, in his turn, does not believe that the pro-European course is the direct opposite of the pro-Russian one. He also thinks that close relations with Russia do not exclude the cooperation of these three nations with the European Union.
"It is unprofitable for any of these republics to destroy economic ties with Russia and abandon long-term friendly or fraternal relations," he concluded.
