The increasing uncertainty in relations between the United Kingdom and China, brought about by rapidly escalating tensions over Huawei, Hong Kong and the coronavirus pandemic, could still improve if Beijing were to change the tack of foreign policies vis-a-vis Western counterparts, experts told Sputnik
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 22nd July, 2020) The increasing uncertainty in relations between the United Kingdom and China, brought about by rapidly escalating tensions over Huawei, Hong Kong and the coronavirus pandemic, could still improve if Beijing were to change the tack of foreign policies vis-a-vis Western counterparts, experts told Sputnik.
Political tensions between the UK and China worsened after the latter imposed a controversial security law in Hong Kong, a former UK colony handed over to China under the condition that it would enjoy special freedoms and privileges. Beijing has now established its own watchdog in Hong Kong to oversee crime and punishment with regard to subversion, separatism and terrorism.
The diplomatic strife was further exacerbated this month over London's decision to ban Chinese tech giant Huawei from partaking in the development of national 5G networks until 2027 and to suspend the extradition agreement with Hong Kong. The UK also reportedly plans to send a UK carrier, due to become operational this year, to attend military drills in the Far East.
'GREAT UNCERTAINTY' THAT CAME AS NO SURPRISE
Banning Huawei is a political decision that seems to have dealt a "huge blow" to the telecom giant, Junhui Qian, a professor of economics at Shanghai Jiao Tong University's Antai College of Economics and Management, told Sputnik.
"But the deadline of 2027 is pretty distant. It's not clear how much immediate damage Huawei will have to endure. The only thing certain is that there is now great uncertainty on Huawei's business in the UK and the future of China-UK relations," Junhui added.
The UK's decision comes on the heels of intense lobbying by the United States, which has for over a year claimed that letting Huawei into national networks is a security risk associated with the fact that the company allegedly spies on its users for the Chinese Communist Party. US President Donald Trump seemed to have taken credit for London's move, tweeting that Washington had "convinced many countries" not to do business with Huawei.
"I think the US government has been trying to give pressure to the British government when it comes to the case of Huawei. Remember, not a long time ago the British policy regarding 5G and Huawei was quite different. I think, this U-turn ... was also a prompt act of pressure from Washington," Ming-chin Monique Chu, a lecturer in Chinese Politics at the University of Southampton, told Sputnik.
Still, the ban of Huawei and suspension of the extradition treaty did not come as a surprise, according to the expert.
"There were already a lot of tensions between the British and the Chinese sides for some time, and most recently, I think, the COVID-19 developments have actually cast doubt about the credibility and the legitimacy of the Chinese government's handling of the crisis," Chu said.
According to Rana Mitter, the director of the University of Oxford China Centre, the clash between London and Beijing fits into China's growing diplomatic estrangement from the West, which could have resulted from the Chinese leaders' new approach to the coronavirus pandemic.
"I don't think it was intentional. I think that China's leaders needed to build a strong sense of nationalist identity at home to gain popularity after COVID. They probably did not think about the diplomatic repercussions. There are some signs now that they want to rethink the strategy but I think it will take quite a long time now," Mitter told Sputnik.
With its post-epidemic economy running at 20 percent below what it was this time last year, China will likely be looking for trade opportunities and ways to boost its economy, the expert argued, adding that this could lead to a reset in the UK-Chinese relationship.
"I think both the UK and China are quite pragmatic countries. And I think both sides are looking for business opportunities and both have a very strong sense of their own identity in the wider world. So I wouldn't be surprised to see in a few months' time an attempt at diplomatic resets of sorts," Mitter said.
According to Chu, on the other hand, the economy is what Beijing is likely to bet on in asserting its line in dealings with the West.
"Given the global economic recession due to COVID-19, a lot of Western countries are in a very precarious economic position. Of course, China's economy has also been naturally impacted by COVID-19. But assuming that China's economic power is still scheduled to rise over time, I think, the Chinese officials will be very smart to try to play the game of economic statecraft, namely to use Chinese rising economic power to force Western powers to make further concessions," Chu said.
China, understanding that the UK's hostile lead might be followed by a handful of like-minded countries, is most likely to retaliate, the expert opined, adding that Beijing has many tools for potential diplomatic retaliation.
CHINA-WEST STRIFE NOT MATTER OF EITHER-OR
Beijing needs to find a way to deal with this new "common voice" among the Western countries, as argued by Mitter.
"I think the idea of the partnerships [among Western countries] are not necessarily formal. I think the democratic countries want to create a shared knowledge and a shared strategy when it comes to China. China will be very aware of it I think. Therefore, the next big strategic decision for China is how to deal with that changing world," Mitter said.
Although the US-China confrontation is unlikely to subside in the near future, there is still room for Chinese leaders in Beijing to try to improve diplomatic relations with the West, whereas other Western countries do not necessarily have to pick a side between the United States and China, the expert argued.
"They offer different things. The US is more of a security actor these days. China is trying to be more of an economic actor. The problem is many countries want both security and a strong economy. They'll have to work out how to navigate between the two. It's not a question of choosing sides. It's a question of working out which side can offer a better proposition to your country and then being able to balance," Mitter said.
Chu, in turn, opined that the estrangement was likely to only grow in time on all three vectors � China-UK, China-US and China-West � unless the sides manage to find common grounds in areas other than those where they clashed, such as climate change.
"In less contentious areas, there will still be room for cooperation, but when it comes to sensitive issues such as Huawei, Hong Kong, human rights and high technology in general, I think, the promise for cooperation will be quite slim," Chu said.
