MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 13th July, 2020) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday revised down its forecast for GDP fall in the middle East and Central Asia by 2 percent, to 4.7 percent in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and volatility of the oil market.
"A sharp decline in oil prices together with production cuts among oil exporters and disruptions in trade and tourism added further headwinds. As a result, growth in the region is now projected at -4.7 percent in 2020, 2 percentage points lower than in April 2020. The unusually high level of uncertainty regarding the length of the pandemic and its impact on firm closures, the resulting downside risks (including social unrest and political instability), and potential renewed volatility in global oil markets dominate the outlook," the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook Update for Middle East and Central Asia read.
However, the GDP fall in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has been revised down only by 0.5 percent and is expected to stand at some 1-1.5 percent due to reflecting stronger policy response in some countries and lower oil production cuts than in the Middle East, the IMF added.
