WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 03rd July, 2020) Timely introduction of a vaccine to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and a strong economic re-opening will be crucial for US President Donald Trump to get re-elected in November, analysts told Sputnik.
Trump has been falling behind in some major polls ahead of the November 3 presidential election. On Thursday, a Monmouth University poll revealed that if the election were held today, Democratic presumptive nominee Joe Biden would win by 12 points - one point higher than the same survey reported in the previous month.
Although the US economy saw depression-type losses due to lockdowns at the onset of the pandemic, Trump lauded a Labor Department report on Tuesday that revealed the US added nearly 5 million jobs in June. Trump said the June employment numbers represent a record rebound after the loss of more than 20 million jobs in the March-April period.
Experts believe the president must balance public safety and economic recovery in the coming months.
"If the economy will come back amazingly and we have a vaccine by the end of the year, you can imagine that Trump will win," University of New Mexico Political Science Professor Lonna Atkeson told Sputnik.
However, if the economy fails to come back, Atkeson added, which is a real possibility given the parameters, it would be a huge negative for Trump. And, in any scenario, Trump will be blamed if efforts to keep this balance fail.
Eurasia Center Vice President Ralph Winnie told Sputnik Democrats also must work on maintaining the right balance.
"That is the challenge for Democrats: the longer they extend the lockdown, the harder it will be for people to support them, because they have to work and make money," Winnie said. "On the other side, the president cannot rush into reopening the economy. At the same time, the states have to reopen, so people can work."
The experts said while the economy is a key driver, caution will also be needed.
"The president has to make sure that the economy is moving forward, that people can work and make money. At the same time, if the states reopen too soon, people will die, and Trump will be blamed," Winnie said. "That is going to be a major thing for reelection, and given the whole issue with the coronavirus, everything is problematic."
Atkeson said the current situation impels people to be more concerned about the economy than about the virus.
"I suppose we should move on a cautious speed but people have to figure out the personal risks and respond to them," she said, assuming that most of the states are coming out from the lockdown slower than expected.
Consultant to Democratic Party candidates Anton Konev said, however, that Trump has mishandled the health care crisis and must take responsibility for that.
"The Democrats are going to say that Trump had intelligence warnings in December 2019 and early January of this year," Konev told Sputnik.
Trump, he added, knew that there was a successful model for fighting this virus and should have closed down the country.
The expert accused Trump of leaving the initiative to the state governments instead of taking decisive steps by himself. Each state, he said, made steps in a different timeframe which resulted in more casualties from this virus.
Trump also failed to secure much needed personal protective equipment (PPE), he said. This forced states to spend more money and bid against each other and the Federal government, Konev added.
"So many people died because they did not have PPE, and this is the fault of the federal administration," he said.
Trump has blamed China for allowing the virus to spread and has defunded the World Health Organization (WHO), accusing them of covering up for Beijing. Chinese and WHO officials have denied Trump's accusations.
While the US constitution does not make provisions for rescheduling the election date, most Americans would exercise the right to vote remotely in current circumstances, experts suggested.
"It is in the constitution: the presidential election has to be [held] the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November," Atkenson said, noting that rescheduling would be unprecedented.
Winnie said he doubted the November election would be delayed because there would be a lot of mail-in voting.
Bill Boerum, a civic leader who served as an official election inspector in California's Sonoma County, said there could be many challenges with counting mail-in ballots. The ballots are sent out a month before the election date but it takes a long time to count them, he added.
Mail-in voting may be preferable for Democrats who know how to "harvest" ballots, while Trump believes it leads to fraud, he said.
"In-person voting has been going down in recent years and the current situation will increase the trend," Boerum told Sputnik, pointing out that several states, including California and Michigan, already announced that all voters will receive mail-in ballots.
Atkeson agreed the method was "going to be very popular," but some states will face challenges. Currently only about six states do all voting via mail-in ballot and another 10 do small amounts.
"It is not an easy task for them. Having voting by mail in all 50 states is probably not likely," Atkeson concluded.
