GENOA (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 26th June, 2020) ENOA, Italy, June 26 (Sputnik), Anastasia Levchenko - The United States is betting on Poland as part of its "offshore balancing" strategy, implying support to regional powers that would further act as watchdogs for US interests, which is amplified in the case with Poland by the country's own will to take such a role and its readiness even to pay for it, Adriel Kasonta, a foreign affairs analyst, founder of AK Consultancy and former project manager at the British Polish Chamber of Commerce, told Sputnik.
Following a summit with Polish President Andrzej Duda in Washington, US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that Poland was willing to pay for the presence of additional US troops on its territory and that soldiers already stationed in Germany would likely be moved to Poland. Trump said earlier in June that he was planning to reduce the number of US troops stationed in Germany from 35,000 to roughly 25,000, and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has said that he hopes Washington will relocate the troops to Poland.
Trump also said he and his Polish counterpart look forward to signing the Defense Cooperation Agreement between the two countries. It will build on the two joint declarations signed in 2019, that boosted US-Poland military cooperation.
"The United States somehow puts a bet on the horse, which is willing to win. When it comes to Germany and to the public opinion, Germans gradually became very reluctant to participate in United States adventurism, US wars and significant commitments all over the world, which are not in line with the national interests of German state and German people," Kasonta, who is also an editorial board member at the peer-reviewed Central European Journal of International and Security Studies (CEJISS) in Prague, and former chairman of the International Affairs Committee at Bow Group, the oldest conservative think tank in the UK, said.
He added that, in his opinion, when it comes to Poland this sort of reluctance is not seen at the moment.
"The current [Polish ruling] party and numerous other parties are somehow selling this American dream to Polish people, which are willing to move along by being somehow bought on the topic of economic advancement and improved business and trade relations between the United States and Poland, which is the most important thing for the rationale of the societies in the post-communist countries," Kasonta continued.
On Tuesday, Polish media reported that the United States would deploy 2,000 servicemen to Poland instead of the 1,000 initially planned. According to Warsaw's Gazeta Prawna newspaper, in addition to the troops, the command of the V Corps of the US Armed Forces, which is now in Germany, will be also relocated to Poland.
"Donald Trump and his administration pursue the so-called offshore balancing strategy, which will put a strong emphasis on the countries which have so far not been fully appreciated by the Western commune," Kasonta said, adding that it is combined with Trump's desire to turn upside down all the international commitments of his predecessors and to establish the world order that would be more responsive to American interests.
The motivation behind the offshore balancing strategy is to prevent the rise of superpowers in the face of China or Russia.
"The US strategy is to have regional powers which are checking for the United States, in the United States' interests, whether any hegemon is emerging. In that sense, Poland will be the watchdog of Washington, let us say, to see whether Moscow is not emerging as a hegemon in this part of the world. In Asia, we'll see other watchdogs of Washington, which will be checking and offshore balancing whether China is emerging or not," Kasonta said.
However, the intention to relocate the troops from Germany to Poland is seen as surprising by many in Europe and in the United States itself, according to the analyst.
"It is a slap in the face towards Germany, because this is a significant movement of troops from Germany, from their territory, and also the headquarters, which will put a strong emphasis on new country, not Germany, but Poland, and it will also be aligned with the investment, improving the infrastructure and business links between both countries, United States and Poland, which is a significant civilizational and cultural achievement for the post-communist country like Poland to be in this very close synergy with the fading or still relevant hegemon," Kasonta said.
However, by the ruling Law and Justice party in Poland, the possible movement of troops and cemented defense cooperation with the United States is seen as an opportunity to advance its political agenda and to portray the security guarantees from across the ocean as the party's achievement, the analyst believes.
"It is very peculiar for the ordinary person, for ordinary Kovalsky in Poland, to see that the government is subsidizing the stay of the US troops on Polish soil," Kasonta said.
"Which is very crucial to add is that the US troops which will station in Poland will not be accountable to the Polish law, they will be taken out from the Polish jurisdiction and they will solely be responsible towards the national law and order. It also creates a very peculiar situation where now the country is, let us say, maybe not occupied by the foreign force, but indeed we can see the presence of the foreign forces stationing on the Polish soil, which are not accountable to the law and justice in the particular country, in Poland, and are even paid by the hosting country" he continued.
Russia is closely following the US' plans to move part of its troops from Germany to Poland and will implement all the needed measures to ensure its national security, as the country does not rule out that the US may violate the 1997 Russia-NATO Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said on Thursday.
RISK TO LOSE ALLIES IN NEIGHBOURS
Apart from military cooperation, Poland is eager to sign a nuclear energy deal with the United States. On Tuesday, a senior US administration official told reporters that the United States is taking steps that will allow Poland to build a nuclear plant using US technology.
"The plan is to create a Poland which will be similar in its capacity to Israel in the middle East, so the very eager and very good partner of the United States on the one hand and on the other hand, a partner which is fully able to execute any wish coming from Washington by threatening its neighbors, potential enemies and also to deter not only Russia, but it also goes to the threat to Germany, Russia and China as well," Kasonta said.
He noted that though such a plan will lead to Poland's security, it will further deteriorate the country's relations with Germany and Russia, which should be mended rather than escalated.
"However Poland will find itself in a situation where because of strictly aligning and solely aligning its security and defense and international relations future with the foreign hegemon like the United States, Poland perhaps will be secure, but at the same time, it will have no friends in closer proximity, and I'm having there in mind Germany and also Russia, which with we have a very, very bad relationship, which should be, in my opinion, rather changed," he continued.
Such US-Polish nuclear cooperation is also likely to dissatisfy France, which is the nuclear power in Europe, according to the analyst.
Trump and Duda met in Washington on Wednesday to discuss bilateral interests on trade, military, energy and other matters.
