MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 23rd June, 2020) Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi is unlikely to act on his recent threat to invade Libya in light of escalation in the strategic coastal Libyan city of Sirte and Al Jufra Airbase in the country's center due to logistical and a variety of political reasons, Sputnik has learned from experts on Monday.
This past Saturday, The Egyptian president said that his country had an internationally legitimate right to intervene in Libya should its internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) seize control over Sirte and Al Jufra, currently controlled by the rival Libyan National Army (LNA). Sisi also voiced an offer of help to Libyan tribes by training and equipping them. The statements came as the president was carrying out an inspection of Egyptian troops near the border with Libya and told them to be ready to fight abroad, should the need arise.
"An Egyptian military intervention is very unlikely. Despite the bravado, no regional power wants to be dragged fully or directly into the Libyan conflict in this way. Rather, they will prefer to continue to run the war through proxies and from behind," Alison Pargeter, a senior research fellow at King's College London's school of Security Studies, told Sputnik.
The expert pointed out that given the logistical difficulty of such an intervention Cairo is unlikely to follow through and send troops to Libya.
According to the expert, Sisi's statement was a mere way for Egypt to "assert its position and bolster support for [LNA Commander Khalifa] Haftar."
"However, Sisi's assertion that he was ready to train and arm Libyan tribes indicates that Egypt may be willing to provide the LNA with more military assistance and to do so in a more overt fashion that hitherto," Pargeter said.
Whether or not this warning scares off the GNA is another matter, as the internationally-recognized Libyan government will not accept victory as victory without control over both Sirte and Al Jufra, the expert argued.
"The GNA is not going to give up on retaking Sirte regardless of what Sisi might demand. Sirte is important both strategically and symbolically and most importantly, is the gateway to the Oil Crescent. By taking these areas, the GNA will be able to curtail Haftar's power and diminish him even further, putting it in a better bargaining position for if and when negotiations finally take place," the expert said.
What is more important, the military action in Sirte might not be even up to GNA head Fayez Sarraj, as, according to Pargeter, "the GNA is not its own master, and whether or not it presses ahead and attacks Sirte will be down to Turkey rather than Egypt."
"My perception is that both sides are digging into entrenched positions because both sides believe they have the upper hand militarily," Kanishkan Sathasivam, a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science at Salem State University, told Sputnik.
"A very small window of opportunity for diplomacy does still exist. But the problem is deciding on a venue through which it can happen that is acceptable to all sides," Sathasivam said.
This problem, as elaborated by the Salem State University professor, stems in the distrust of bias perceived by either of the Libyan warring parties towards the United Nations, the Arab League, the European Union, major powers such as the United States and Russia, which makes the choice of an acceptable neutral aegis a difficult endeavor.
Pargeter, too, believes that there is still a window of opportunity for a diplomatic solution here, but according to the King's College London senior research fellow, it will depend specifically on Russia, Turkey and the United States.
"If Ankara and Moscow can find a way to resolve the Sirte and Al-Jufra issue, then there is a good opportunity to bring the warring factions together. However, as things currently stand, Turkey looks to be intent on maximising its territorial gains ahead of any potential negotiations, something that could make the chances of a peace deal more remote," Pargeter said.
