US authorities could have prevented up to 54,000 COVID-19 deaths had they implemented coronavirus mitigation measures just two weeks earlier, Columbia University research has shown
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 21st May, 2020) US authorities could have prevented up to 54,000 COVID-19 deaths had they implemented coronavirus mitigation measures just two weeks earlier, Columbia University research has shown.
Released publicly on the medical portal medRxiv on Wednesday, the paper is largely based on the estimates on existing research on the effectiveness of the social distancing guidelines which were issued in mid-March. According to the simulations, 55 percent of infections and 61.6 percent of deaths as of early May could have been avoided if lockdown measures went into effect just seven days earlier. If the measures were put in place two weeks earlier, coronavirus statistics on May 3 could have shown drastically lower figures: 960,000 fewer cases of infection and nearly 54,000 fewer deaths, which is a full 82 percent of the COVID-19 death toll registered on May 3.
"Counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same control measures been implemented just 1-2 weeks earlier, a substantial number of cases and deaths could have been averted ... A more pronounced control effect would have been achieved had the sequence of control measures occurred two weeks earlier: a reduction of 960,937... cases and 53,990 ... deaths in the US," the paper's abstract read.
The paper estimates that US authorities could have nipped the contagion in the bud around late February and early March. At that time, sports and entertainment events were taking place, albeit with reduced crowds, and presidential election rallies carried on.
The US coronavirus response has been marred with dubious policy, disorganization and disagreements between the Federal and states level.
US President Donald Trump has consistently downplayed the severity of the disease, likening it to the flu as late as March 9 when Italy, South Korea and Iran were in the throes of the virus.
As of Thursday, the US counts nearly 1.6 million coronavirus infections and almost 94,000 deaths.
