The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is unlikely to give terrorist groups opportunities to conduct new attacks, particularly as social distancing measures enforced to curb the spread of the disease have left public places deserted, however, the epidemiological crisis may allow militant organizations to regroup and recruit more followers, experts told Sputnik
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 15th May, 2020) The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is unlikely to give terrorist groups opportunities to conduct new attacks, particularly as social distancing measures enforced to curb the spread of the disease have left public places deserted, however, the epidemiological crisis may allow militant organizations to regroup and recruit more followers, experts told Sputnik.
In a leaked confidential briefing seen by the AP news agency on Wednesday, European Union counterterrorism chief Gilles de Kerchove stated that right-wing and Islamist militants could potentially view attacks on health care facilities amid the ongoing health crisis as a highly effective method of spreading panic in society.
However, according to experts, the likelihood of an uptick in terrorist attacks, especially when many countries are already past the peak of their coronavirus disease outbreaks, seems unlikely.
ATTACKS UNLIKELY, BUT RECRUITMENT CONTINUES
Terrorist organizations have frequently taken the opportunity to exploit any situation for their benefit, and this could include the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, Dr. David Lowe, senior research fellow at Leeds Beckett University Law school, told Sputnik.
"History has shown us that terrorist groups take advantage of any situation to carry out attacks that promote their cause and it is not just the far-right or Islamist groups who do this," the academic said.
Citing de Kerchove, Lowe stated that if an attack were to happen on medical facilities, the responsible group would likely be Islamic State (terrorist organization, banned in Russia).
"As Counter-Terrorism Coordinator Gilles de Kerchove says, an attack on hospitals or medical staff, who are currently being held as heroes in society, would be an enormous shock. It is more likely to be an Islamist group like Islamic State who will inspire attacks among its followers as the ideology they follow does include the use of violence on those they see as heretics, non-believers," Lowe remarked, added that de Kerchove's warnings should be taken seriously.
Terrorist organizations, whether Islamist, far-right or far-left, have all been making efforts to increase recruitment over recent months, the academic added.
"This pandemic is an opportunity for Islamist, far-right, far-left, and nationalist groups to either recruit individuals to their cause or to gain sympathy for their cause. Already I have noticed that some groups have been trying to influence people to their cause as they have been highly critical of state government policies, stirring unrest with protests against lockdown restrictions, and there has been an increase in conspiracy theories espousing that the world population is entering a new world order with more state control," Lowe said.
Dr. Anthony Glees, director of Buckingham University's Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies agreed with Lowe and told Sputnik that terrorist groups may be able to recruit more members amid the current health crisis but added that the likelihood of an attack taking place is unlikely.
"The UK threat level, set at substantial, meaning an attack is likely, is, in fact, only at the third level; this means that whilst we should not be surprised in the UK if there were a terror attack from Islamists, one is in no way imminent. And whilst de Kerchove is obviously right in thinking that since western states everywhere are under attack from COVID-19, an Islamist attack might prove devastating, I myself would caution those who think the COVID-19 disaster will encourage the most committed and serious IS terrorists to do harm," Glees said.
This opinion was shared by Dr. Max Abrahms, associate professor of political science at Northeastern University, who stated that the idea that terrorists would exploit the current pandemic to launch attacks shows a poor understanding of their activities.
"In general, stories of terrorists exploiting the coronavirus reflect a poor understanding of them. Relatively few terrorists are interested in inflicting indiscriminate harm. They usually prefer to attack police forces, for example, or a particular minority. Spreading the virus cannot be done without putting a larger section of society at risk. Also, the so-called audience costs of spreading the virus are high. Militant groups will lose international and local support from stoking the mass illness," Abrahms told Sputnik.
The Northeastern University academic added that the social distancing measures currently in force, which have left public places devoid of people, have reduced the number of targets for terrorist attacks.
"The lockdown orders in many countries have thinned out large gatherings of people, giving terrorists fewer choice targets to strike," he said.
According to Glees, the general disruption and instability caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the potential for terrorist attacks to create disorder.
"Serious, organized terror attacks are launched to sow disorder, chaos, and fear into orderly society. If society is already disordered, deeply uncertain, and fearful there is, in effect, little room to be afraid of Islamism," the academic stated.
According to the UK's Office of National Statistics, which published a study of the impact of COVID-19 on the country's different ethnicities on May 7, minority groups have an increased risk of death from the disease. Glees asserted that this could lead to Islamist terrorist groups waiting until the end of the pandemic to launch attacks.
"It is also possible that inasmuch as Islamists tend to come from BAME [Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic] communities, they may themselves have contracted the virus and are lying low," Glees said.
In conclusion, Glees stated the global health crisis may have seriously inhibited militant groups' capabilities of carrying out a successful attack.
"To succeed, terrorists need to have an intention and a capability. The intention is certainly not absent but COVID-19, one way or another, may well have had a strong inhibiting impact of their capability, both in terms of balancing the impact against the loss of terrorists' lives and in inhibiting their ability to move around as we know they like to do," the academic stated.
ARRESTS CONTINUE POTENTIALLY REDUCING MORALE
Over recent weeks, national police forces have stepped up their efforts to arrest those accused of belonging to terrorist organizations or those who are believed to be planning attacks. In mid-April, German police arrested four men from Tajikistan who were accused of being members of Islamic State and were believed to have been planning attacks in Germany.
According to Buckingham University academic Anthony Glees, the United Kingdom has also stepped up arrests on alleged militants.
"UK counterterror police reported a 33 percent increase in terror-related arrests at the end of March 2020, the highest number of arrests since 2017," he said.
Glees added that the uptick in arrests may lead to a lowering of morale and reduce the likelihood of an attack taking place.
"A high number of arrests as in Germany and the UK is deeply demoralizing for Islamist terrorists because it demonstrates that the authorities are actually in possession of good, actionable intelligence about them. That makes the terrorists fearful rather than the other way round, which is good news for the rest of us," he said.
Alongside increased surveillance, governments across the world can take decisive action to prevent terrorist organizations from gaining the sympathy of followers, Leeds Beckett University academic David Lowe stated.
"Crucial in neutralizing terrorists' propaganda is for relevant state agencies, politicians, and medical professionals to also send online messages to counter the terrorists' narrative. In relation to politicians, what doesn't help is when opposition party leaders try to point score against the government, as seen in the UK," the academic said.
He added that political leaders must come together and work across party lines, not only to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease but to also protect their citizens from potential attacks.
"At this time, it would be preferable for the politicians to work on the pandemic issue like a coalition and once the danger of the pandemic subsides, then start to challenge government actions. Bickering between politicians is only adding fuel to the fire for terrorist groups' propaganda," Lowe remarked.
It remains to be seen if governments across the globe will be able to take the required action to curb the threat of terrorism, at the same time as the bulk of their attention is turned to fighting the ongoing health crisis.
Earlier this week, Islamic State militants in Afghanistan conducted attacks on a maternity ward in the capital of Kabul and a funeral ceremony in the eastern province of Nangarhar, resulting in multiple casualties.
On May 1, a man in France was charged with terror offenses after ramming three police officers in a motor vehicle. Prosecutors allege that he had a letter bearing allegiance to the Islamic State in his car.
These events demonstrate that the specter of terrorism is never far away, and governments must remain vigilant.�
