The official data on the number of coronavirus cases in Italy should possibly be multiplied by 10-20 times to even have a clue about the real level of the spread and transmission rate of the infection, Stefano Merler, an Italian mathematical modeler of infectious diseases transmission at Bruno Kessler Foundation, said on Thursday
ROME (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 30th April, 2020) The official data on the number of coronavirus cases in Italy should possibly be multiplied by 10-20 times to even have a clue about the real level of the spread and transmission rate of the infection, Stefano Merler, an Italian mathematical modeler of infectious diseases transmission at Bruno Kessler Foundation, said on Thursday.
Speaking online at a press conference organized by the Higher Health Institute, Merler admitted the reality of the estimates of the London Imperial College, according to which 3-5 percent of the entire population could be infected with the coronavirus.
"Our monitoring system has detected about 5-10 percent of the total number of cases," Merler, who conducted a relevant study for the Italian government, said.
The total official number of COVID-19 cases in Italy has topped 204,000, with over 27,600 deaths, according to the latest official estimates. Nearly 71,000 patients have recovered, leaving currently about 105,000 active cases in the country.
According to Merler, the total number of coronavirus cases in Italy could be around 2 million, or over 3 percent of the population.
A similar opinion was expressed in late March by Italian Civil Protection Department chief Angelo Borrelli when the pandemic was at its peak. According to him, the ratio of one confirmed case to 10 unregistered could be quite probable.
