MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 10th March, 2020) Intra-Afghan negotiations are expected to open on Tuesday amid uncertainty as the Taliban are stepping up attacks on country's forces and US warplanes are carrying out airstrikes on the group's positions, yet hopes for long-awaited peace became possible after President Ashraf Ghani finally agreed to a prisoner swap.
The long-awaited historic accord between Washington and the Taliban group that set the stage to terminate the longest war in American modern history and paved way for the intra-Afghan talks was signed on February 29. The deal laid out a timetable for the withdrawal of some 8,600 troops out of the current 13,000 stationed in Afghanistan within 135 days. The full pullout is expected in 14 months.
However, the events that followed clearly indicated that the promising agreement paved a rocky road to the intra-Afghan talks.
Last week, the US Forces in Afghanistan said that the US forces carried out an airstrike against the Taliban in the Afghan province of Helmand in retaliation for the group's attack near a football stadium in Khost province. It was the first US strike against the Taliban in 11 days.
An attack on Friday targeting a ceremony attended by top Afghan political leaders and Ghani's presidential rival Abdullah Abdullah once again raised questions whether peace in the war-ravaged country was possible. The Taliban quickly distanced themselves from the attack that claimed the lives of over 30 people, saying that was not carried out by their fighters. It was later claimed by the Islamic State group (IS, terrorist group, banned in Russia).
What added to the already fluid situation was an attack during the swearing-in ceremony of Ghani on Monday. One rocket struck near the presidential palace as the newly inaugurated president was speaking. The attack was later claimed by IS.
While hopes were high on the day of the signing of the deal, later days showed that not all promises were kept. Even the date of the upcoming intra-Afghan talks - March 10 - which was agreed on during the signing of the US-Taliban deal was a very big "if."
"Now the tentative date (10March) is questionable with the latest developments. It would be interesting to see if Mr. [US Special Representative Zalmay] Khalilzad could persuade all sides to make the above happen," Nadir Naim, deputy chairman of the Afghan High Peace Council, told Sputnik when asked if the US strike on the Taliban positions could affect the talks.
Reacting to the media reports claiming that Oslo may be the venue to host the upcoming negotiations, Naim said that the Norwegian capital "was certainly on the table" but was "never officially confirmed by all sides."
Meanwhile, Afghan media reported that both Ghani and his arch-rival Abdullah, who refused to recognize the results of the presidential vote and proclaimed himself president, are preparing their separate delegations for the talks.
The joy after the US-Taliban peace deal was clouded the next day after the accord was signed. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who was not present at the signing ceremony in Doha, said that US President Donald Trump had not asked for the release of the 5,000 Taliban prisoners and added that the issue should be a part of the upcoming negotiations.
On Friday, the Taliban said that the movement was ready to begin peace talks with the country's government once all preconditions are fulfilled clearly indicating that the release of the prisoners was a necessary condition of the talks. Reacting to the group's statement, Ghani clarified that the release of Taliban prisoners as part of a peace deal between the US and the militant group required a transparent mechanism.
However, during his inauguration on Monday, Ghani vowed to release the imprisoned Taliban fighters in an encouraging sign for the peace process. He explained that a mechanism for the release of the Taliban prisoners had finally been reached and added that he would issue a presidential decree on Tuesday.
Abdul Hadi Jalali, co-founder and director of the Afghanistan Center for Policy Studies, told Sputnik that the release of the Taliban was an important step to create an environment for peace.
Speaking with Sputnik ahead of Ghani's inauguration, he stressed that if the prisoners were not freed this would "create an initial mistrust between the Afghan Government and the Taliban, which can create further disagreements during the intra-Afghan dialogue process."
"This can also lead to a delay in the commencement of the intra-Afghan talks," he added.
The weight of actual peace and stability in the conflict-affected nation rests on the upcoming talks that are due to address a number of issues in the society and will provide an opportunity to negotiate the agenda put forth by the Afghans concerning their freedoms and problems.
Asked how the US-Taliban agreement can affect the level of opium production which has been flourishing since the start of the 2000s in the country, Jalali told Sputnik that the reduction in opium levels requires "farther strategic intervention."
"A multifaceted central policy, well-coordinated and implemented at the concerned provincial levels between the relevant security, development and service delivery institutions, will ensure growth in production of alternative crops, which can address national needs and boost Agricultural products' exports," he said.
According to Jalali, the post peace accord scenario, peacebuilding and development agenda of the next decade "must include comprehensive, targeted and effective focus and investments on job creation in local markets and industries of the most affected provinces, to ensure sustainable livelihood for the concerned communities and individuals."
"The peace agreement must lead to the establishment of a strong central Government backed by its international partners and continued international development assistance," he added.
