MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 10th October, 2019) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may see a short-term boost in his popularity at home after starting yet another military operation in Syria that is likely to come at the expense of a long-term economic impact of US sanctions, an expert told Sputnik.
Erdogan announced the start of the long-awaited operation on Wednesday to push the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US-allied Kurdish-majority armed group, away from the Turkish border and create a buffer zone where millions of Syrian refugees could be moved to.
The so-called safe zone along in Syria is expected to lift economic pressure from Turkey, which has been hosting 3.7 million Syrians for years, while stopping Kurdish militants from allegedly staging attacks on its territory. Ankara regards Syrian Kurds as terrorists.
Erdogan has been struggling to stop his popularity at home from plummeting for more than a year after the national Currency plunged in value causing inflation and interest rates to soar, while domestic demand fell.
Gareth Jenkins, a senior research fellow with Turkey Center at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm, said that Erdogan had long deduced that his rating rose whenever he presented himself as protecting the country. But that effect is not likely to last.
"Any boost to Erdogan's popularity as a result of staging a new invasion of Syria is likely to be relatively short-lived, particularly as it is ultimately an unwinnable war," he predicted.
A limited operation was Erdogan's best bet as it would lessen the chance of US retaliation, while making him appear defiant and determined to conduct a foreign policy that is independent of the United States.
"The current expectation is that Turkey will launch a relatively limited operation, which will enable President Erdogan to try to stop the decline in his domestic popularity by boasting that he has defied the US but will stop short of doing anything that would trigger crippling sanctions," he said.
The target of the operation also signals that it is a "product of Erdogan's domestic political considerations." The SDF has never attacked Turkey, Jenkins argued. The blame lies entirely with the PKK, an Iraq-based group of Kurdish separatists.
"But the terrain there is extremely difficult for military operations. Erdogan is attacking the SDF because it is an easier target and because he hopes eventually to bring as much of Syria as possible under Turkish control," he opined.
US President Donald Trump threatened over the weekend that if Turkey did anything that he considered "off limits" he would "totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey."
Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations at middle East Technical University in Ankara, argued that the tweet meant nothing because the policy of the US under Trump changed "like weather."
Trump said over the weekend that US troops would step aside to let Turkey conduct the operation but was apparently pressured by US lawmakers from both sides of the aisle to reassure SDF allies. He did also invite Erdogan to come to Washington next month.
"It is not rational by the US president then to invite Turkish president to Washington DC on November 13 for talks if you want to destroy the economy of your guest," Bagci suggested.
He stressed that the Turkish economy was "widely integrated" into the world economy and, although the United States could always hurt it � like it did last year when Washington raised tariffs on Turkish goods � a destruction was too strong a word and "not believable."
But Jenkins speculated that US sanctions Turkey were long overdue after its purchase of Russia's S-400 missile systems that was banned under the US's CAATSA act. And Trump would be even more pressured to take action against Ankara if it becomes involved in a war with the SDF.
So it would be in Erdogan's best interest to keep the operation short.
"In addition to the measures that are already pending, there is a high risk that, if Turkey becomes engaged in a prolonged war with the SDF, the US could increase tariffs on Turkish goods or impose an embargo on defence sales to Turkey," he said.
Any US sanctions on Turkey would not only damage the US-Turkish economic relationship but deal a huge blow to Erdogan's hopes of bringing the Turkish economy out of recession, Jenkins stressed, which is the main reason behind his sinking popularity.
Apart from hurting its ties with the US, Turkey is now risking getting bogged down even deeper in the Syrian war and making its inevitable retreat more humiliating, Jenkins added.
"The more territory Turkey takes now, the more it will eventually have to give back � and the more difficult and humiliating its withdrawal will be," he said.
The operation has also put Turkey on a collision course with its allies in Syria � Russia and Iran, who sided with the Syrian government. The Syrian Foreign Ministry warned Ankara shortly before the incursion began that it risked being ejected from the Astana peace process.
"The collision may not be imminent and may only occur after the US has withdrawn from Syria � which it is expected to do eventually � but it will happen," Jenkins predicted.
Bagci argued that Turkey, as one of the three guarantor states of the Syrian ceasefire, was entitled to protecting the Syrian territory under the Astana agreement, but admitted that it needed the support of Russia and Iran. Turkey has been backing anti-Damascus armed groups.
"Turkey needs the green light of Russia and Iran to enter into this territory as the guarantee power of Astana treaty," he said.
But Jenkins argued that any Turkish involvement in the eight-year-long Syrian war had made the situation worse, rather than better, and the new operation would not change that.
