MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 27th June, 2019) Victory of Ekrem Imamoglu from the Turkish main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) in the rerun of Istanbul mayoral election over Binali Yildirim, a member of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), signifies that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's political career enters its final stage, experts told Sputnik.
Imamoglu defeated Yildirim on Sunday, winning 54 percent of the vote. The rerun was ordered after the AKP claimed the vote in March was fraught with irregularities. Imamoglu won the March election by a slim margin.
Gareth Jenkins, a non-resident senior research fellow with the Joint Center Silk Road Studies Program and Turkey Center at the Institute for Security & Development Policy in Stockholm, characterized the results of the rerun in his comments to Sputnik as a "devastating blow" to Erdogan's positions.
"Imamoglu's victory in the rerun of the Istanbul mayoral election was a devastating blow to President Erdogan, particularly as Imamoglu increased his margin of victory from 13,000 to 800,000 votes. It has reinforced the sense both among the AKP's opponents and inside the AKP itself that � even if his departure is not imminent, Erdogan's career has now entered an irreversible decline," the expert said.
According to Jenkins, Imamoglu's victory is a remarkable demonstration of the Turks' commitment to the electoral process.
Dr. Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations at middle East Technical University in Ankara, echoed Jenkins, saying that Yildirim's defeat had undermined Erdogan's political positions.
"Everybody in Turkey is proud of Turkey's democratic results, and politically speaking both president Erdogan and AKP are not so strong anymore as before. It is not expected that AKP will recover from this defeat," the expert stressed.
A similar point of view was expressed by Seda Demiralp, an associate professor of political science at the Isik University in Istanbul, who highlighted symbolic significance of Istanbul for Erdogan's political career.
"As Erdogan often proudly expressed, his rise to power began with his success in 1994 Istanbul municipal elections. His post as the mayor of Istanbul was a turning point in his political career. Thus, many people rightfully believe that this electoral loss is the first in Erdogan's long political career. Even though so far the loss is at local level, it may very well signal the beginning of his fall from power. Imamoglu's success as the mayor of Istanbul would most likely work against Erdogan," the expert said.
AKP UNLIKELY TO CONTEST RESULTS OF RERUN
Jenkins opined that the AKP was unlikely to contest results of the rerun as Yildirim's performance in the second voting was worse than in the first one.
"I think the scale of Imamoglu's victory makes it very difficult for the AKP to try the same tactic again. Significantly, despite all of the AKP's efforts to get its supporters to vote on June 23, its candidate's vote still fell by 200,000, compared with March 31. This suggests that many AKP supporters were uncomfortable with the party forcing a rerun," Jenkins said.
Bagci shared this point of view, saying that people got tired of political games.
"I do not expect [new appeals]. The difference [between the two candidates] is too big and Turkish people are tired with this game. The president stated already that there will be no objection and 'he accepts the will of the people' what means that he accepted already the defeat in Istanbul," the expert noted.
Demiralp also believed that the AKP would not try to contest the results again since it had already lost a lot of votes.
"I do not expect the ruling party to contest the mayor elections again. The AKP elites already showed signals of acceptance, as they probably saw that their prior choice of contesting election cost them votes," the expert said.
UNCLEAR PROSPECTS FOR AKP-IMAMOGLU COOPERATION
The experts have different opinions about the prospects for cooperation between the new mayor of Istanbul and the AKP.
"In the medium and longer term, I think it is impossible for there to be fruitful cooperation between Erdogan and Imamoglu. Erdogan will try to undermine and weaken Imamoglu. The only question is whether he directly targets him or launches a campaign of attrition, such as by making it difficult for Imamoglu to run Istanbul," Jenkins said, asked if the AKP would cooperate with Imamoglu.
An opposite point of view was expressed by Bagci, who was far more optimistic about the further cooperation between the AKP and the opposition mayor of Istanbul.
"I do expect [such a dialogue] because Ekrem Imamoglu offered just an hour later in his speech that he wants to cooperate and visit the president. Both are [eager] to cooperate because it is a matter of the country, not of two political opponents. Also president stated very positively. I think more important is that Istanbul is the driving force of Turkish economy and the economic problems can be solved only by cooperation between two. We will see how this cooperation will evolve but any of them, who rejects to cooperate, will be the loser also in the next elections," the expert said.
Demiralp, in turn, gave cautious predictions regarding the prospects for cooperation between the new mayor and Erdogan.
"Erdogan has reasons to not cooperate with Imamoglu. However, non-cooperative behavior would also have a cost for Erdogan. Recent elections showed that Erdogan's strategy to directly confront Imamoglu backfired and only increased the votes of the latter. Thus, to avoid losing his own popularity by confronting Imamoglu, Erdogan may choose to work with him after all," the expert added.
Erdogan has been heading Turkey as prime minister, or president since 2003.
