ROME, (Pakistan Point News - 04th Jul, 2026) The food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) today released updated forecasts for 2026 harvests in its Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, with production seen on course to be the second-highest in history, although 1.9% below last year’s record high.
Global total cereal output is now pegged at 2 983 million tonnes. Coarse grain production forecast is close to the previous year’s level, buoyed by recent official estimates from Argentina, Brazil, China (mainland) and Zambia, all pointing to stronger harvests than previously anticipated.
Global wheat output is expected to decline by 4.3% to 806.5 million tonnes, as recent official data from Australia point to El Niño driving output below the five-year average. World rice production is now anticipated to dip by 1.8 percent from its all-time high in 2025/26.
FAO lowered its forecast for world cereal utilization in 2026/27 to 2 961 million tonnes, due an expected reduction in global wheat utilization. FAO’s forecast of world cereal stocks at the close of seasons in 2027 now stands at 957.8 million tonnes, leaving the global cereal stock-to-use ratio largely unchanged in 2027 at 32.0%. FAO’s forecast for world trade in cereals in 2026/27 is little changed at 507.6 million tonnes.
