ISTANBUL (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 13th July, 2023) Researchers are predicting the possibility of a powerful earthquake of magnitude 7 or more in Istanbul and the Sea of Marmara, with its economic aftermath expected to affect the whole of Turkey, Haluk Eyidogan, seismologist and member of the Istanbul earthquake council, told Sputnik on Thursday.
"According to forecasts, a powerful earthquake would occur if there is an activation of faults in the Sea of Marmara. The likelihood of this earthquake happening by 2030 is about 50%. The conclusion is based on studies of a 2,000-year history of earthquakes in this area and the analysis of geophysical and seismological research," the expert said.
Eyidogan added that the whole country would be affected by an earthquake with its epicenter in Istanbul, since the city accounts for around 35% of Turkey's gross domestic product.
In the event of such a disaster in Turkey's largest city, there is also the risk a tsunami might flood several districts there, the seismologist told Sputnik. He said that in 2019, a plan was developed to ensure the safe evacuation of city residents from affected areas and eliminate the consequences of the disaster.
At the same time, there are around 350 buildings in Istanbul that could collapse during an earthquake, with some 35,000 cultural heritage sites at risk, Eyidogan said. He urged the city authorities to strengthen these buildings and facilities against earthquakes to avoid devastating consequences.
On February 6, two earthquakes of magnitudes 7.7 and 7.6 hit the southeastern regions of Turkey at a nine-hour interval, toppling thousands of homes. The underground tremors, followed by hundreds of aftershocks, were felt in 11 Turkish provinces and in neighboring countries, including Syria. The earthquakes in Turkey caused over 50,000 fatalities.
Following these earthquakes, seismologists have started warning Istanbul residents about a possible disaster in their city, since it is located right near the North Anatolian Fault, which could potentially spark a major earthquake.
