Still vivid memories of the most terrible battles of World War II override Germany's dependence on the United States and make its leaders determined to avoid being drawn by Washington into a dangerous conflict with Russia over Ukraine, analysts told Sputnik
WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 07th February, 2022) Still vivid memories of the most terrible battles of World War II override Germany's dependence on the United States and make its leaders determined to avoid being drawn by Washington into a dangerous conflict with Russia over Ukraine, analysts told Sputnik.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and US President Joe Biden will discuss economic ties, tensions around Ukraine, European security and other issues during their talks in Washington on February 7.
The still vividly remembered traumatic experiences of World War II continue to guide Germany's leaders today in seeking caution and stability in their relations with Russia, political commentator and historian Dan Lazare said.
"Memories of Stalingrad and Kursk still linger, not to mention the Battle of Berlin: Hence (the danger of conflict with Russia) is verboten to the first degree," Lazare said. "Besides, the ruling SPD (Social Democratic Party) knows that the Kremlin is not the main problem. Rather, it's the White House."
The cautious mainstream German leaders and policymakers do not share radical US dreams of surrounding and crushing Russia, Lazare said.
"The US neocon goal of incorporating Georgia and the Ukraine into NATO so as to encircle Russia is a recipe for war, and absolutely the last thing Germany wants is to be dragged into another conflict in the east," he said.
Scholz recognized that Biden's latest decision to send 3,000 additional troops to Eastern Europe would not deter a collision with Russia over Ukraine but would make it far more likely, Lazare said.
"Five thousand helmets (Berlin has offered to Kiev over reluctance to send weapons) may sound like a joke, but Germany's desire not to be entangled in a conflict that has 'Made in the USA' written all over it is perfectly understandable," he said.
Germany needed to stand up for its own interests and those of its European partners rather than allow itself to be sucked into a potentially catastrophic conflict by reckless US policies, Eurasia Center Vice President Earl Rasmussen said.
"Europe needs to stand up for Europe's needs and pull away from their reliance on the United States. The United States does not care about Europe let alone Germany. I would agree with both France and Germany and there needs to be rapprochement with Russia if Europe is to move forward," he said.
The track record of US mismanagement in all its unnecessary wars fought over the past 20 years gave German leaders and their European colleagues ample cause for concern over similar behaviors and worse outcomes in Ukraine, Rasmussen warned.
"The United States has blundered into one military misadventure after another since 2001 and there is no reason to think Ukraine will be any different. ...Berlin is therefore right to exercise a maximum of caution. Let's see if Scholz has the gumption to stay the course," he said.
Rasmussen emphasized that Germany had not sought to break away from the United States, but it needed to protect itself against selfish irresponsible US actions.
"The West is not unified and rightly so. Rather than screaming that Germany is not a reliable partner, one should look closer at the US care only about themselves and no one else's interests: That includes not only Russia but Ukraine and Europe as well. Germany needs to make a decision for Germany and its citizens," he said.
If Germany and EU member states continued to passively follow disastrous US policies, the results would be disastrous for them, Rasmussen said.
"They will suffer a disastrous economic collapse that may pull us not only into a global financial crisis, but may result in a devastating war," he added.
In fact, under Scholz and his new SPD-led, center-left coalition government, Germany had already begun the process of reassessing its role in the world, veteran senior CIA analyst Ray McGovern, who briefed four US presidents on Russia, told Sputnik.
"At a press conference in Washington in 2015, (then-German chancellor Angela) Merkel told (then-US President Barack) Obama twice that providing arms to Ukraine was a bad idea. ...Now, the Germans are smart enough to have grasped that the international correlation of forces has profoundly changed," he said.
McGovern noted Germany's leaders understand that the relationship between Russia and China now exceeds, in closeness and effectiveness, an alliance.
"Calmer heads in Berlin are sensible enough to trim their sails accordingly. (German policies on) arms to Ukraine and Nord Stream 2 are only a part of it. Economic ties with China are another part," he said.
The gap between the United States and Germany on a number of issues was therefore inevitably going to grow far wider, McGovern also said.
"The current divide between what Washington seems to want and what the Germans will fall in line with: that divide is growing from a fissure to a crevice, to a crevasse. But can the Germans really act as adults now, 77 years after World War II? Well, I guess there is always a first time - and if not now, when?" he asked.
Historian, political commentator, antiwar activist and Nobel Peace prize nominee David Swanson pointed out that the clash between Washington and Berlin was taking place because Germany was sincerely trying to apply the very rules-based international order that US leaders had proclaimed for so long but broke whenever they wanted to.
"Germany is, I think, very obediently complying with the US government's demand for democracy and a rule-based order. The rule is that you don't threaten war. It's written in the UN Charter and re-stated in the treaty that created NATO. The rule is that you don't send weapons to war zones," he said.
Swanson noted that the current Biden administration policy on sending arms to Ukraine violated globally signed and respected treaties going back more than a century.
"The rule is that you don't send weapons to where they will violate human rights. It's in the Arms Trade Treaty," he said.
To comply with the Hague treaties of 1899 and 1907, the statute creating the International Criminal Court and the German Constitution, Germany was obliged - in order to uphold the Rule Based Order decreed by the United States - to reject any US demands to send weapons or troops to Ukraine, Swanson added.
US leaders were already infuriated by Germany's determination to adhere to the very principles of international law and coexistence that Washington had lectured on them for so long, University of Pittsburgh Professor of International Affairs Michael Brenner observed.
"The Biden people are demonizing the Berlin government because of its refusal to follow Washington over the cliff on Ukraine. The American response to any sign of diminished prowess is hyperbolic rhetoric," he said.
Brenner noted that Biden and Scholz also faced an underlying divergence of policy on relations with Russia and China.
"That will have to be thrashed out on a multilateral basis within the Alliance," he said.
However, Scholz was very unlikely to risk any open break with Washington, Brenner also said.
"The West Europeans still find it psychologically impossible to cross swords with the U.S. or to chart their own course on international matters. That holds for the new German government. When the Ukraine crisis cools, German-American relations will return swiftly to the status quo ante," he added.
Nevertheless, the damage already done to Washington-Berlin relations was real and lasting, University of Rhode Island Professor of International Relations Nikolai Petro said.
"No, the US-German strategic alliance is not falling apart. It is, however, becoming increasingly obvious to America's allies that simply parroting US officials is not always in their national interest," Petro added.
