MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 07th February, 2022) German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is about to be hosted by US President Joe Biden in Washington on Monday as the two countries need to figure out a way to address the ongoing crisis surrounding Ukraine, which will please the United States and also accommodate German energy interests, specifically the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
In late January, both Germany and the US confirmed that the new German chancellor will visit the US capital in February. The visit will be taking place against the major geopolitical crisis in Eastern Europe, as Russian stands accused of preparing to invade Ukraine, despite Moscow's multiple claims to the contrary.
Despite declaring its complete solidarity with Kiev, Berlin has been subjected to much criticism from its NATO allies, especially after refusing to send weapons to Ukraine as well as wanting to keep Nord Stream 2 out of the current tensions.
The pipeline itself is currently having trouble getting certified in Germany even after Nord Stream 2 AG has established a subsidiary - Gas for Europe GmbH - in the country, as regulators are expecting more documents to be submitted in order to complete the process within the specified four-month time frame.
According to Paul Poast, an assistant professor in the department of political science at the University of Chicago, Germany has to take a softer approach to Russia as it is too weak militarily and is closer to the location of a potential conflict, even though such stance provokes US anger over Berlin's policy.
"It (the US) would obviously want Germany to take a harder line, but so long as the US can still use Germany as a base of operations, any other contribution would be a 'nice to have,' rather than necessary," Poast explained to Sputnik, citing the experience of the George W. Bush administration in 2003 when the US carried on with the invasion of Iraq despite German and French opposition.
Nevertheless, Germany reportedly assured the United States that in the event of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, gas would not run via Nord Stream 2. This was confirmed by US Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, who said that Washington will work with Berlin to make sure that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline does not move forward should Russia take hostile actions against Ukraine.
Riccardo Alcaro, the research coordinator and head of the Global Actors Program of the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, thinks that Germany is committed to the Atlantic framework and will go along with the US if push comes to shove.
"I think the US and Germany will put up a display of transatlantic unity (during Scholz's visit). Differences on the means, or the severity of the economic sanctions, will remain, but fundamentally Germany will remain aligned with the US. If Russia does escalate in Ukraine, Germany will agree to an economic retaliation, and will likely put Nord Stream 2 on hold indefinitely," Alcaro told Sputnik.
Meanwhile, Alan Cafruny, a professor of international affairs with the Department of Government at the Hamilton College, told Sputnik that powerful forces in the US, such as exporters of liquefied natural gas, would like to terminate the pipeline, creating tensions between the two countries that predate the crisis over Ukraine.
"Their voices are becoming louder as tensions with Russia intensify. However, Scholz would probably agree to restrict Russian gas exports only in the event of a significant Russian military incursion into Ukraine that seems unlikely at the present time," Cafruny said.
Some, however, think that it is the pipeline itself that may play a constructive role in alleviating the tensions, including Roderick Kiewiet, a professor of political science at the California Institute of Technology.
"I think the Germans will do whatever they think is in their best interests with respect to Nordstream 2. Nordstream 2 is actually the main source of optimism I have about this situation being resolved. I think it is in the best interests of both Russia and Europe that the gas gets turned on, so I'm hopeful they will reach some kind of rapprochement," Kiewiet told Sputnik.
