MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 15th September, 2021) With its recent cruise missile test, North Korea is showing off its military capabilities and trying to attract Washington's attention, but prospects for future denuclearization talks remain dim, experts told Sputnik.
State-run Korean Central news Agency reported on Monday a successful test of a cruise missile. North Korean experts reportedly conducted ground thrust, flight tests, control and guidance tests, and a number of others. Cruise missiles hit targets at a distance of 1,500 kilometers (932 miles). The specifications of the new weapon are said to meet the design requirements.
The reports about the tests coincided with the beginning of the Tokyo visit of US Special Envoy for the North Korea Sung Kim, who later discussed them with the head of the Japanese Foreign Ministry's Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, Takehiro Funakoshi, and the South Korean Foreign Ministry's special envoy for peace and security on the Korean Peninsula, Noh Kyu-duk.
While the testing may simply be a part of the weapon development cycle, the recent one may also be a warning to the outside world not to underestimate its current arsenal, compared to South Korea, according to Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Nonproliferation.
"Since cruise missiles are typically more difficult to detect and intercept, the new capability is a powerful political-military statement," Sokov stated, while also describing the launch as a testament that the arms race on the Korean Peninsula continues and Pyongyang can hit far-way targets.
This sentiment is echoed by Marc Finaud, the head of arms proliferation at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, who described the launch as "yet another demonstration of North Korea's capabilities," noting that the cruise missile is capable of reaching various Japanese and South Korean targets while having higher maneuverability than ballistic missiles.
"It is a way of sending a signal to the international community, and particularly, to the United States, that North Korea still has a nuisance value and that the only effective way of stopping this evolution is to negotiate a comprehensive agreement with Pyongyang," Finaud explained, adding that "at every stage in the escalation, the price to pay for New Korean disarmament becomes higher."
Joshua Pollack, a senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California, suggested that it could be a dual-capable system, serving as a counterpart to a similar South Korean cruise missile as well as a nuclear weapon to deter a US attack.
"This event is part of a trend that extends back a few years now. North Korea is still not testing ICBMs, and is keeping its testing to a moderate pace. I tend to think that Kim wants to avoid trying the patience of the Chinese, who continually urge the two Koreas not to do things that raise tensions, like missile tests in North Korea or combined exercises with the US in South Korea," Pollack said.
US DOES NOT SEEM TO BE INTERESTED
The Pentagon responded to Pyongyang's tests by claiming they threaten the neighboring countries and the international community. At the same time, the White House reaffirmed its commitment to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
"My sense is that everyone in appropriate policy making circles in the United States does their planning based on the assumption that North Korea will continue to develop its arsenal in different ways. So while there will be formal registrations of disapproval, I don't think the test is going to result in U.S. policy changing significantly," M. V. Ramana, the Simons Chair in Disarmament, Global and Human Security at the school of Public Policy and Global Affairs and the director of the Liu Institute for Global Issues at the University of British Columbia, said.
The expert went on to express his doubts that there will be negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang any time soon, as the administration of US President Joe Biden does not want to be perceived as engaging with North Korea in the manner of Donald Trump's White House.
Finaud is of a similar opinion, noting that while the Biden administration has been hinting at its readiness to negotiate with Pyongyang, it is more focused on other issues such as domestic affairs, Afghanistan, the Iran nuclear deal and the middle East in general.
"Learning the lessons from the Trump administration, Biden will probably avoid an early photo opportunity and rather explore, at expert level, ways of achieving the step-by-step negotiation of a comprehensive agreement that will include gradual disarmament steps in exchange for a peace treaty, sanctions relief, and economic assistance," Finaud opined.
Pollack is also skeptical that the recent tests will provoke a meaningful US response, especially since "there is nothing in UN Security Council resolutions that actually prohibits cruise missile testing in any case."
"I don't expect talks to resume anytime soon. Neither side appears genuinely interested," Pollack concluded.
