SOCHI (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 16th February, 2021) The three guarantor nations of the Astana format - Russia, Turkey and Iran - are set to hold a round of talks in the Black Sea port city of Sochi starting Tuesday.
Scheduled for two days, the fifteenth round of talks aims to discuss the work of the UN-brokered Syrian Constitutional Committee, following a recent breakdown in the negotiations between the Syrian loyalist and opposition members.
RED LINES AN IMPEDIMENT IN GENEVA
Despite receiving strong support in a joint statement by the Astana format delegations on the eve of its fifth conference, the Syrian Constitutional Committee did not see any tangible progress.
"What has been proved so far is that a large amount of the pro-Assad and anti-Assad coalitions remains stuck to their red lines - a situation that is also obvious in the field," Ioannis-Sotirios Ioannou, a cofounder of the Geopolitical Cyprus website, told Sputnik in comments on the deadlock.
Held earlier in January under the auspices of the UN in Geneva and facilitated by UN Secretary-General's Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, the latest round of the Constitutional Committee faced a deadlock after both sides proved unable to agree on a number of key issues.
"Astana Process has proven to be a difficult equation when it comes to a comprehensive solution that will end the Syrian war. Especially at a timing when small conflicts within the big Syrian conflict are occurring on several fronts," Ioannou added.
COMMUNICATION IS KEY FOR ASTANA
Best illustrated by the ongoing situation in Syria's northern Idlib province, the rivalries amongst the Syrians themselves are shadowed by a larger geopolitical rivalry afoot in the region, with Russia and Turkey remaining at odds on a number of issues.
"The Idlib issue will be still on the agenda. Also, the YPG issue will be one. The Russian support to YPG is an issue Turkey does not like... Idlib issue is the most complicated one for all sides. But I do not expect any de-escalation. It will remain a thorny issue," Huseyin Bagci, President of the Turkish Foreign Policy Institute and a professor of international relations at the middle East Technical University in Ankara, told Sputnik.
Notwithstanding their disagreements, the volatility of the situation in Idlib has prompted both Turkey and Russia to opt for negotiations, particularly within the framework of the Astana format.
"Despite the tensions between different Jihadist factions in Idlib and the strong re-appearance of al Qaeda [terrorist organization, banned in Russia] in the area, the de-escalation mechanism agreed between Turkey and Russia, last March is still in effect and generally working," Ioannou said.
While proving to be a tried and tested de-escalation platform, the Astana format is by no means a magic bullet, with a comprehensive settlement of the decade-long Syrian civil war remaining unlikely in the short term in light of the multiple conflicting interests at play, both domestic and regional.
"Keeping channels of communication open and having interlocutors to speak with is often critical to deconfliction and de-escalation. I think that, for the moment, there is a greater chance of the meeting providing interim benefits than realizing its ultimate goal of a comprehensive settlement," Gareth Jenkins, a non-resident senior research fellow with the Joint Center Silk Road Studies Program and Turkey Center at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm, told Sputnik.
While it remains too early to speculate as to the exact outcome of the upcoming talks, the Astana format remains a dynamic platform that has so far managed to prevent the situation in Syria from spiraling out of control despite the seemingly irreconcilable differences voiced by the parties involved, instilling hope for a political resolution to Syria's civil war.
