WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 10th February, 2021) The United States and Russia must include artificial intelligence (AI) weapons within the scope of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) if the pact is to remain relevant beyond 2026, former US Air Force Lieutenant Colonel and Defense Department official Karen Kwiatkowski told Sputnik.
Last week, Russia and the United States extended the New START treaty, the last remaining arms control pact between the two nuclear powers, until 2026. Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov has said the five-year period could provide a window for talks on all factors that affect strategic stability. The pact limits each country's strategic nuclear arsenals to 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 deployed missiles and heavy bombers.
"The strategic (long range) nuclear warheads [vector]... is actually somewhat old-fashioned, and in many ways not as significant as newer advances in defense and offense [such as] computer and AI driven network and denial of use attacks," Kwiatkowski, who served as a political-military affairs officer on Mideast policy at the Pentagon, said.
Kwiatkowski said most believe New START will not survive beyond 2026 because of this, along with the fact that President Joe Biden's administration is unlikely able or willing to muster the creativity - and trust - that would be needed to extend the pact.
"Verification of this cornucopia of techniques, software and weapons types are more difficult, and require far more trust between negotiating partners," she said. "If Biden was more energetic, aware, and more interested in government accountability within the US security state, that could lead to more trust between potential signatories, and with more trust, more innovation."
Other problems the two nuclear powers face include modern advances in conventional weapons, above, on and under the sea, often conducted at a more tactical range beyond the New START's strategic concerns, she added.
"One sticking point on renewal of New START by the previous administration was enhancing verification protocols," Kwiatkowski said. "Biden's continuation of the existing treaty leaves verification methods limited and status quo, even as both side believe the other is violating the spirit, if not the letter, of the treaty."
Nevertheless, Kwiatkowski hailed the renewal of New START as "a positive sign," even though it came with very little effort on the part of the United States or Russia.
"The US Senate was not involved, and the extension by design, took only a signature by President Biden. It is a positive sign that the Biden Administration is interested in arms control treaties - however, actually reducing nuclear weapons is not anticipated under this particular treaty," she said.
In addition to political hurdles, she added, the US military-industrial complex could also derail efforts to extend the pact beyond 2026.
"One problem is that the United States has evolved, or perhaps degenerated, into the kind of state in which this administration may be constrained by the interests of the security and intelligence apparatus, much as it was under President Trump," she said.
Biden might slow down any further increases in US military spending but he was very unlikely to reverse or cut any of the budget increases and new programs that were launched by the Trump administration, Kwiatkowski advised.
"The Pentagon is well invested in a future that includes sea, land, air and space launched weapons of all types, indicative of where we are today and also where Russia and other countries are to a similar extent," she said.
