Projections suggest that prolonged relaxed COVID-19 policies could lead to daily mortality in January being four or five times higher than in April, WHO Regional Director for Europe Hans Kluge said Thursday
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 15th October, 2020) Projections suggest that prolonged relaxed COVID-19 policies could lead to daily mortality in January being four or five times higher than in April, WHO Regional Director for Europe Hans Kluge said Thursday.
"Projections from reliable epidemiological models are not so optimistic. These models indicate that prolonged relaxing policies could propel by January 2021 daily mortality at levels four to five times higher than what we recorded in April," Kluge told a virtual press briefing.
However, the same projection models suggest that simple measures, such as systematic wearing of masks at 95 percent rate from now instead of less than 60 percent currently seen as well as strict control over social gatherings can "save up to 281,000 lives by February 1 across our 53 member states region."
"Under proportionally more stringent scenarios, the model's reliable is much more optimistic, yet with slightly higher levels of morbidity and mortality than in the first wave, but with a lower slope - as if we should rather expect a higher and longer swell instead of a sharp peak giving us more reaction time," Kluge said.
The regional chief said the model underscored the idea that the pandemic would not reverse on its own, but people could influence its course by "proportional and target response."
