WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 05th October, 2020) Democratic presidential challenger Joe Biden expanded his lead both nationally and in two critical swing states less than one month before election day, largely due to last week's chaotic first presidential debate and President Donald Trump testing positive for COVID-19.
According to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on Sunday, Biden's lead nationally has nearly doubled since Tuesday's presidential debate, growing from 8 to 14 percent, surpassing the previous high of 11 points in July. The former vice president is now leading 53% to 39%, the poll revealed, in the wake of a debate in which Trump continually interrupted his rival.
One of the pollsters who conducted the survey, Hart Research's Jeff Horwitt, said the presidential debate clearly damaged Trump's standing against Biden, at least in the short term. 49% of voters said Biden won the debate compared to 24% for Trump with 17% who called it a tie.
Trump lost ground to seniors and suburban women, who now back Biden by 27% and 25% respectively. Trump's 1-point pre-debate lead among men over 50 has turned into a 13-percent advantage for Biden, according to the survey.
Biden's lead grew a couple points to 10% in a Reuters-Ipsos poll released on Sunday, which was taken after Trump announced that he tested positive for COVID-19. About 65% of respondents said if Trump had taken the pandemic more seriously he probably would not have been infected, including 90 percent of Democrats and 50 percent of Republicans.
On October 2, Trump announced via Twitter that he and his wife tested positive for the coronavirus, after which he checked into the Walter Reed hospital just outside the US capital in the state of Maryland. Trump's doctors on Sunday said the president is doing well, although he began a steroid treatment after his oxygen dropped twice.
Based on the average of the ten most recent surveys posted on Realclearpolitics (RCP), as of Sunday evening, Biden leads Trump by 8.1 percent nationally, a 1.1-point bump from last week's RCP average.
Moreover, Biden has expanded his lead in a couple crucial so-called "swing" states, which is even more important because the Electoral College format requires candidates to win statewide votes, not national popular vote.
Biden now leads in nine of the top 10 largest of these battleground states, the sum of which account for nearly 70% of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the race (538 electoral votes are apportioned across 50 states).
The three biggest prizes include Texas (38 electoral votes), Florida (29), and Pennsylvania (20). Trump has a 3.2% lead in Texas, down by less than a point from last week, while Biden's edge in Florida slightly expanded to 2 percent.
Biden's lead grew by nearly two points in Pennsylvania, where the former vice president now leads by 6.5%. Biden has "flipped" the state of Georgia slightly into his favor within the past week, where Trump's 1.3% lead in the RCP average has turned into a 0.3% edge for the former vice president.
Biden's lead has remained relatively flat in Ohio, where he is up 2.5%, as well as Michigan (+5.5%), North Carolina (+0.5%), Arizona (+0.3%), and Minnesota (9.4%).
The only good news for Trump is in the state of Wisconsin, where he narrowed Biden's lead by 1.5 points to 5.5 percent.
It is important to note that Biden's lead in five of these states is less than five percent. So, a path to victory certainly exists for Trump especially given wildcard factors such as the potential for chaos due to a massive influx of mail-in ballots amid the pandemic. Not to mention, the risk of undercounting Trump voters who are less likely to participate in polls, which happened in 2016 in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
If the election were held today, the Democrats would end up with a 51 to 49 majority in the Senate, where the Republicans currently control 53 seats, the same scenario as last week. Eight of the 35 Senate races up for grabs on the November 3 ballot are in the "toss-up" category, seven of which involve Republican incumbents.
In South Carolina, Senator Lindsey Graham is now tied after leading by a point last week, according to the RCP. In Arizona, Democratic challenger Mark Kelly has grown his lead over Republican incumbent Martha McSally by nearly a point to 6 percent. North Carolina's Thom Tillis has seen his deficit grow by two points, with challenger Cal Cunningham now ahead by 8%.
Republican Join Ernst in Iowa saw her deficit nearly double to 5% since last week, while Oregon Senator Susan Collins remains 6.5 points behind. Two other Republican senators have maintained tight leads including Georgia's David Perdue (+2.8%) and Montana's Steve Daines (1.6%). Michigan incumbent Democrat Gary Peters saw his lead narrow by one point to 3.8%.
Meanwhile, the Democrats appear to be in a good position to maintain control of the 435-member House of Representatives, where they have a 36-seat edge. All 435 seats will be on the November 3 ballot.
The Democrats have a solid lead in 214 races to 190 for the Republicans with 31 in the toss-up category, according to RCP, the same tally as last week. The Democrats need to win at least 218 seats to maintain majority control. If the election were held today they would secure 233 seats, according to the RCP's "no toss-up" map.
