WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 03rd October, 2020) US President Donald Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis could alienate independent voters in critical battleground states although his base will remain steadfast until the very end, analysts told Sputnik.
On Friday, White House physician Sean Conley said Trump is fatigued but in good spirits a day after he announced that he and his wife had tested positive for COVID-19. Meanwhile, the Trump campaign said all of the president's events will be moved to a virtual format or postponed.
Trump has come under fire for admitting that he downplayed the pandemic near the beginning of the outbreak. Trump told journalist Bob Woodward in an interview that he knew the virus was much worse than the flu. The president, after clips of the interview were released in early September, said he downplayed COVID-19 in order to not show panic.
California State University Emeritus Professor of politics Beau Grosscup told Sputnik that Trump's diagnosis and condition are likely to tilt at least a few more independent and other swing voters towards Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
"It could push a few more independents toward Biden, as it makes clear the president's irresponsible approach to public health has caught up with him and others who are among the most 'protected',' [with] constant testing, citizens in the nation," Grosscup said. "There is little compassion for the President especially given not only his irresponsible - if not criminal - approach to the virus, but the latest reports as to how much his irresponsible approach has had on global attitudes and behavior towards effective public health measures."
Grosscup said he believes Trump will go back on the campaign trail wearing a mask after he has quarantined for fourteen days, assuming he is virus free. In any event, the ramifications for his campaign could be severe, he added.
"For those who will actually vote on election day, it could be devastating if his bad health makes his ability to serve questionable. It makes poignant national security issues as well as Continuity of Government (COG) issues that should swing voters to Biden," Grosscup said.
Political analyst Bill Boerum posited that the president would likely lose one of his greatest assets because of the virus.
"It definitely will impact the campaign and against Trump. The rallies were a source of enthusiasm for Trump. Even when he recovers, mass rallies will not be coming back. I believe people will be reluctant to attend mass rallies with even the president... able to contract the virus," Boerum told Sputnik.
Immediately significant was the removal of Trump's ability to participate in fund-raising events as well, Boerum advised.
"This will be further eroded by whatever his symptoms become, if he is bed-ridden or hospitalized. I believe his campaign already has had difficulty raising money. This has not been recognized by political observers or political 'pundits' - an untold story. Biden is ahead in raising campaign money," Boerum said.
Eurasian Center Executive Vice President Earl Rasmussen suggested that Trump's diagnosis would also likely disrupt Republican campaign strategy. Trump is a fighter and he will likely overcome this, Rasmussen added, but if he feels worse before the election this could lead to an atmosphere of uncertainty.
"I think that is unlikely but a possible scenario. Vice President [Mike] Pence is experienced and could quickly take over responsibilities. His policies may be different but will likely be more in-line with traditional Republican positions," Rasmussen told Sputnik. "Even if Pence is the onsite person, I can picture President Trump providing comments remotely directly to those attending events and other forums."
The greater threat could occur if Biden, the Democratic candidate, became ill, Rasmussen remarked.
"This will raise even more doubts on his [Biden's] ability to govern. As a result, one would and should be looking closer at [Democratic vice presidential candidate Senator Kamala] Harris and her positions as well as those that influence her," he said.
Biden's lead nationally has ranged from 6 to 8 percent over the past few months, however, because of the Electoral College format, statewide polling is more significant.
That said, Biden leads in eight of the top 10 ten largest swing states, according to poll aggregator Realclearpoltics.com. However, his lead is well within the margin of error in most of them.
Grosscup said Trump testing positive will have "little impact" on his core voters in many of these swing states, especially in the Midwest.
"Trump's base will go down with him regardless," Grosscup said. "His rabid followers will stay with him, it is those working-class Democrats and white [Republican-supporting] women who voted for him in 2016 in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan that matter."
However, in the end, people's sympathy will be on Trump's side and his enemies will look bad if they continue their attacks as they did before, the analysts acknowledged.
"This [contracting COVID-19] will most likely strengthen his base," Rasmussen said.
Boerum said Trump's supporters will remain committed, but the real issue is how close the election is in the "battleground" states.
Another crucial factor, he added, will be the record use of mail-in ballots because of the continuing COVID-19 national emergency.
"I believe the use of mail-in ballots will have a greater impact, the verification of the ballots, the slow count, and the legal challenges to late-arriving ballots," Boerum said. "The Electoral College meets separately in the capitals of the states on December 14. Each state needs to count and certify, what I call 'the election of the electors' before that date."
Trump and Biden traded insults in their first presidential debate on Tuesday, which many experts and viewers saw as chaotic and negative. Most notable was the frequency with which Trump interrupted Biden when the former vice president tried to answer questions.
As a result, the debate commission announced it would make changes to the format of the final two debates. However, now questions loom over whether the debates will even take place.
"Assuming the best scenario, Trump will miss the next debate for sure [scheduled for October 15] but could participate in the last one. However, his rejection of any changes in the debate format may give more momentum to cancelling the last two debates. Of course, it also depends on the health status of Joe Biden," Grosscup said.
The prospect that Biden might also contract COVID-19 made the upcoming vice-presidential debate on October 7 between the candidates' running mates Pence and Harris much more important, Grosscup pointed out.
Rasmussen said the news of Trump's infection would fuel growing sentiment in the Democratic Party to scrap the remaining two debates completely.
"Yes, there are strong feelings within the Democratic Party/Biden camp to cancel the remaining debates even before this news. I anticipate this will only strengthen those calls and will also diminish any adverse public reaction. At least one presidential debate will be canceled but more likely both," Rasmussen said.
Boerum said if Trump is only slightly affected and recovers, he will want the third debate to show he is healthy and strong.
Trump's illness would also raise the issue of presidential succession, Boerum added.
"It certainly is possible that Trump, if very sick, could delegate powers to Pence before the election," Boerum said.
