MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 16th July, 2020) As talks between the United States and Russia over the extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), the only remaining legally binding agreement between the two superpowers on nuclear arms control, descend into uncertainty, experts told Sputnik that the situation will remain unclear until after the November presidential election in the United States, although there is only a small chance that the landmark treaty will be prolonged.
In late June, US Special Representative for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov held marathon talks on the extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). The landmark deal, which was concluded in 2010 and expires in February 2021, paves ways to maintaining stability and predictability in the face of the termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
Yet, the results of the negotiations are under a big question mark since the US continues to insist that China, which is believed to have a far smaller nuclear arsenal than those of Russia and the US, join the nuclear negotiations. China has repeatedly declined the invitation to join the talks, thwarting the United States' hopes of making them trilateral. Beijing has recently urged Washington to respond to Moscow's offer of extending the deal.
Responding on the US' repeated calls to join the talks, Director-General of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Arms Control Department Fu Cong has recently said that Beijing would be "happy" to join the trilateral nuclear arms control talks with Washington and Moscow if the US reduces its arsenal to match China's level. "But actually, we know that that's not going to happen," he added.
The world's nuclear-armed states possess a combined total of 13,400 nuclear warheads, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). About 90 percent of this nuclear arsenal belongs to Russia and the US, while China has only 2 percent. Other nuclear states, like the UK, France, Israel, Pakistan, India and North Korea possess the remaining warheads. The SIPRI estimates indicate that China has 320 warheads, while the US possesses 5,800.
Meanwhile, the deputy chair of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, who signed the flagship treaty while he was the Russian president, has recently expressed his skepticism over the future of the deal because of Washington's position on the matter. He once again reiterated Russia's position, which was voiced by many top diplomats, including Ryabkov, that Russia, for one, is ready to prolong the treaty without any conditions.
As the talks between the two superpowers about their nuclear arsenals remain stalled, speculations have emerged that US President Donald Trump is hardly interested in salvaging the arms control deal before the presidential elections, which are scheduled for November. According to Reiner Braun, a co-president of the International Peace Bureau, the future of the deal lies mainly in the outcome of the vote.
"Let's see what happens when he [Donald Trump] is elected, and there is a small chance that this treaty will [remain] in power, in force," he said.
Despite this, Braun admitted that he has difficulty in seeing Trump commit to extending the treaty, "because it is counter to the will of Trump to be a part of international negotiations, the national agreement system,"
Braun also believes that the US is just finding arguments to avoid the signing of the treaty.
"The main point for me is that the Trump administration doesn't want to have any international agreements and they want to have the freedom for the United States to do whatever they want - to militarize the Earth and space," he told Sputnik.
Before making calls on China to reduce nuclear weapons, the US should first reduce its own weapons stations across the globe, including in Guam, Okinawa and South Korea, according to the expert.
WILD WEST VIEW OF INTERNATIONAL BEHAVIOR
Pat Elder, from the International Coordinating Committee of the No to War - No to NATO group, noted that the US wants to involve China "in a fuzzy new trilateral arms control agreement."
"Insisting on China's involvement is a convenient way of throwing a wrench into the proceedings. Beijing says rightfully the US and the Russians have the Primary responsibility to disarm," he said.
According to the expert, the US under Trump believes in the "ultimate definition of national sovereignty."
"The existence of arms control treaties runs counter to this wild-west view of international behavior," he said.
Elder does not believe that the administration of Donald Trump will allow the US to disarm.
"There is too much money riding on the continued development and enlargement of the American nuclear weapons program," he said.
Meanwhile, Braun believes that in case the agreement is not sealed, the world would not be safe.
"It is worthwhile to keep all international contracts continue. And you know, this is the last arms control agreement we have at the moment. This is really a tragedy," he said.
He recalled that there are new kinds of nuclear weapons that are much more effective and much more point-oriented.
"So we have a new arms race of that and the second danger is coming, above all, from the so-called mini-nukes developed by the United States which makes the nuclear weapons something like the modern artillery, used even in regional conflicts and regional wars, which makes the world totally unsafe because when one side will start with nuclear weapons, the other side will definitely react with nuclear weapons," he concluded.
