MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 26th June, 2020) US President Donald Trump's announcement of the possibility of sending additional troops to Poland may be related to Washington's commercial interest in selling its liquified natural gas to the Eastern European country, with the move likely to drive tensions with Moscow higher, while reflecting the Trump administration's overall dualistic approach to Moscow combining friendly rhetoric and aggressive actions, experts told Sputnik.
Following a summit with Polish President Andrzej Duda in Washington, US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that Poland was willing to pay for the presence of additional US troops on its territory and that soldiers already stationed in Germany will likely be moved to Poland. Trump said earlier in June that he was planning to reduce the number of US troops stationed in Germany from 35,000 to roughly 25,000, and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has said that he hopes Washington will relocate the troops to Poland.
Ahead of Duda's visit, a senior US administration official said on Tuesday that the Trump administration welcomed the fact that Poland had signed contracts to purchase US liquified natural gas, adding that the country would become independent from Russian gas in 2022.
The announcement of troops reassignment to Poland could be related to the US commercial interests, including LNG supplies, Alan Cafruny, Henry Platt Bristol Professor of International Affairs at the Hamilton College, told Sputnik.
"Poland clearly plays a role in the US attempt to increase LNG exports to Europe, through the construction and expansion of LNG terminals on the Baltic. Poland is also an important market for US military exports. Both of these factors account for the US troop presence in Poland," Cafruny said.
The expert also suggested that the announcement may be a demarche at German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who earlier turned down Trump's invitation for a face-to-face G7 Summit later this year citing the coronavirus crisis.
"Trump's statement concerning troop withdrawals appears to have been a response to Angela Merkel's refusal to agree to his proposal for a G-7 meeting in Washington in September," Cafruny said.
The Trump administration has repeatedly slammed Berlin for its reluctance to abandon pipeline gas supplies from Russia and backlog in NATO payments.
Yet, Trump's announcements will have limited impact on Germany and its policies, Inderjeet Parmar, a professor of international politics of City, University of London, told Sputnik.
"First, I think they are finding the US less and less predictable and reliable so therefore they would not want to become completely reliant on any American liquid natural gas and so on. And I think they see themselves as the leader of the EU, which has a much stronger independent strategy towards others as well. So I think those two things are going hand," the researcher said.
Wyn Grant, professor of international politics at Warwick University, echoed his views saying that Germany would unlikely give in to the US pressure and replace Russian pipeline gas with US LNG.
"Germany is not going to switch its gas supplies, provided stability of supply can be assured. The German government has little time for Trump, nor do foreign policy experts there rate him, and Germany would like to have constructive relations with Russia if possible," Grant told Sputnik.
Parmar asserted that Trump's latest announcements were in line with his earlier pledges to create a market for US liquified natural gas.
"He wants to strengthen the economic and financial position and he wants to use that as a way of showing how significantly he has increased US business to his domestic audience and voting base as well," Parmar said.
Art Franczek, the President of the American Institute of Business and Economics in Moscow, similarly argued that Trump's meeting with Duda and announcements made after it may be serving domestic purposes as he seeks to secure a second presidential term.
"Trump is running for re-election. The number one issue for him is to bash China, obviously, but at the same time, he wants to show that he not only gone bash China but he still has to try to bash Russia ... Poland is a part of the political mix. They are trying to show that they are tough on Russia," Franczek told Sputnik.
"It is part of Trump's re-election campaign. The same is true of troops. He may promise to send troops but we should wait for the results of the election," the researcher added.
Professor Grant of Warwick University suggested that the Polish leader, who also faces a challenging presidential race, could also be seeking political gains from new arrangements with Trump.
"This meeting took place in the context of a very tight presidential election contest in Poland, so any promises are designed to boost Duda's chances of being re-elected. The additional troops and the first consignment of gas need to be seen in this light," Grant said.
PLAYING DIPLOMATIC GAMES WITH MOSCOW
Speaking about moving some US troops to Poland, the US president told reporters he still expected to get along with Russia. Nevertheless, the announcement has already alerted Russia, with a senior official at the Russian Foreign Ministry saying earlier on Thursday that Moscow was closely following the latest development and would take all the necessary measures to ensure its national security.
The actions and the rhetoric of the Trump administration had been contradicting one another since the very beginning, Parmar said, commenting on Trump's remarks.
"There has been a kind of general reluctance not to be critical of Russia. But, on the other hand, if you look at NATO it's much stronger than it used to be. The number of its troops and armed forces and weapons systems on the Russian border are far stronger than they used to be as well. So what you've got is the rhetoric which is reasonably friendly, but activities which are actually far more aggressive," the researcher said.
Parmar went on to suggest that such dualistic approach to Russia, along with the persistent and multifaceted pressure on China, could be part of a ploy to thwart the strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing.
"I think that he probably tries to sort of play a particular kind of diplomatic game that many in the US administration are playing, which is maybe try to do something in regard to the friendship and strategic agreement between Russia and China ... I think there is kind of fear there could be a Eurasian unity with China Russia, which I think the US wants to try to prevent," he added.
Grant also pointed out to this duality in Trump's words and actions but suggested that it was rather prompted by Trump's impulsive nature than strategic considerations.
"One general point that can be made about Donald Trump is that he rarely thinks strategically about anything and takes decisions on the spur of the moment. He may consider that he wants constructive relations with Russia, but then undermines them by comments or actions which are unhelpful," the analyst said.
On Tuesday, the Warsaw newspaper Gazeta Prawna reported that the United States would deploy 2,000 servicemen to Poland instead of the planned 1,000 soldiers.
According to Grant, the potential relocation of troops from Germany to Poland may have regional consequences.
"A lot of it is hot air, but clearly any significant troop transfers that did take place would alter the regional balance of power," the researcher said.
Professor Cafruny of the Hamilton College echoed his views suggesting that deploying US troops closer to the Russian borders would further worsen relations between Moscow and Washington.
"It is not clear when � and even if � troops will actually be withdrawn from Germany. If the withdrawal does actually take place and they are transferred to Poland this would clearly one more factor driving US-Russia tensions," the expert suggested.
"The Primary significance of a decision to relocate troops would be for US and NATO deployments in the middle East and Africa. A troop relocation would certainly not help the already worsening relations between Warsaw and Berlin, and President Duda recognizes this," he added.
Professor Parmar of City, University of London, in turn, suggested that relocation of US troops might add to the rapprochement between the US and Eastern Europe, which started in the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
"They've become a more significant part of the European community, which was in favor of the US military power and military interventionism. This could probably cement aspects of that relationship between the US and Eastern European countries and develop it further, particularly with Poland," he said.
