BRUSSELS (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 18th June, 2020) The pressure on UK and EU negotiators has increased after leading officials from London and Brussels ruled out the possibility of any extension to the current Brexit transition period, meaning that diplomats have just over six months to thrash out multiple agreements; the most pressing of which is an all-encompassing free trade deal.
Negotiators from the United Kingdom and European Union held their fourth round of negotiations on the future relationship between London and Brussels from June 2-5, although both sides have been left frustrated with the lack of progress made so far. Both sides have disagreed over fishing rights and the EU's demand for a level playing field on goods and services, which prevents countries from undercutting one another.
The stakes were raised on Monday after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson held talks with the EU's three main leaders: European Council President Charles Michel, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and European Parliament President David Sassoli. In a joint statement following the conclusion of the talks, the EU leaders announced that Johnson had made clear the UK's intent not to prolong the transition period.
"The Parties noted the UK's decision not to request any extension to the transition period. The transition period will therefore end on 31 December 2020, in line with the provisions of the Withdrawal Agreement," the joint statement read.
The transition period came into force on January 31, the date that the UK officially left the European Union, and stipulated that many EU rules would remain in force in the country for eleven months as both sides negotiated to establish their future relationship.
However, despite the lack of progress made to date and the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic, London has firmly committed itself to a clean break with Brussels on December 31.
In principle, UK leaders have until the end of June to ask for an extension to the transition period. The EU has repeatedly stated that it would be open to such a proposition, but Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove said as early as June 12 that London had no intention of taking this option.
"I formally confirmed the UK will not extend the transition period & the moment for extension has now passed. On 1 January 2021 we will take back control and regain our political & economic independence," Gove wrote on Twitter after co-chairing a meeting of the EU Joint Committee.
In the wake of London's decision, EU leaders called on both sides to return to the negotiating table with a renewed impetus to get all the required agreements completed by the December 31 deadline.
"The Parties agreed nevertheless that new momentum was required. They supported the plans agreed by Chief Negotiators to intensify the talks in July and to create the most conducive conditions for concluding and ratifying a deal before the end of 2020," the EU leaders' joint statement read.
According to a Belgian diplomatic source close to the negotiations, talks will intensify throughout the summer months now that both sides have clarity over the date that the transition period will end.
"The real test comes now at the end of June and July. The political heavyweights are going to enter the ring. Choices will be discussed and decisions made. They still have the time between now and the end of October to reach this long-sought out constructive agreement," the source told Sputnik.
The EU has often taken a last-minute approach to its most serious negotiations, meaning that it may be possible for all the required agreements to be signed, Gilles Lebreton, a member of the European Parliament for the French National Rally party, told Sputnik.
"The European Union has often signed difficult agreements by stopping the clocks at midnight on the last day of hard negotiations, to finalize the discussions. It might be the case again this time," Lebreton said.
The French lawmaker added that Johnson was right to rule out an extension to the transition period, citing the two delays to the Brexit process that took place under former Prime Minister Theresa May, who failed to pass her Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill through the Commons.
"Boris Johnson is right to stick to the timetable, whatever happens. He needs to be firm. We have all seen how the efforts at reaching a consensus by Theresa May failed miserably," Lebreton commented.
Francis Cole, an ex-civil servant at the European Commission, told Sputnik that the EU may begin to put chief negotiator Michel Barnier on the sidelines in order to expedite the process.
"At the level of the European Commission, Barnier is being gradually put aside by president Ursula von der Leyen who seems to take over the file personally. It will be easier to convince the 27 heads of state who must give their unanimous consent. Barnier has reached his sell-by date," Cole said.
Johnson's decision to bypass the UK civil service and appoint David Frost as the country's lead negotiator with the EU has also helped speed up talks, Cole remarked.
"His [Boris Johnson's] big problem is not so much the European Commission, but rather the mentality of the civil service in London. They slowed down negotiations, put obstacles in the way. That's why Boris chose David Frost to bypass the civil service and negotiate in Brussels. Frost is the former head of the London Chamber of Commerce; a practical and 'no-nonsense' businessman," Cole stated.
If London and Brussels are unable to agree on a free trade deal by December 31, both parties would begin trading on World Trade Organization terms, which would apply duties and full customs controls on all goods traveling between the UK and EU.
RANGE OF ISSUES STILL TO DECIDE
Johnson's decision not to pursue an extension to the transition period has created a wave of discontent among Scottish and Welsh leaders.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her Welsh counterpart Mark Drakeford sent a letter to Johnson urging the prime minister to extend the transition period. The two leaders boycotted a planned conference call with the government on Friday once they became aware that Johnson would not seek a prolongation, according to the ITV broadcaster.
However, ex-European Commission civil servant Francis Cole said that the internal dissent will do little to impact negotiations.
"The opposition of Scotland and Wales is just communication. They know that the devolution of powers did not grant them international relations. Full stop," Cole remarked.
There are more than three million EU citizens currently living in the United Kingdom, and as of 2018, the Office of National Statistics estimated that nearly 800,000 Britons were living in EU countries.
According to Cole, one of the main issues on the agenda will be resolving the rights of these individuals.
"Another problem is that the Europeans settled in the United Kingdom are far more numerous than the British in Europe. It will be bilateral negotiations between Great Britain and Poland, Spain or France and the other member states that will bring a solution this summer," Cole remarked.
However, both the EU and the UK have shown an ability to find a solution to some of the more challenging issues raised to date, French member of European Parliament Gilles Lebreton said.
"The problems that remain are not insurmountable, despite what the eurocrats and Michel Barnier are saying. The fishing rights are a question of quota and it is part of the negotiations, so what? They must find a middle of the road solution, that's all," Lebreton stated.
In particular, Lebreton cited previous discussions over potential checks and customs examinations on the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which had to the potential to tear up the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to the region in 1998.
In May, the UK government published its proposals to navigate the border issue in Northern Ireland. According to the plans, there would be no hard border with Ireland, although customs checks would be conducted on certain goods leaving ports from other nations in the United Kingdom that were believed to be heading to the Republic of Ireland.
According to Lebreton, this has shown the ability of negotiators in Brussels and London to reach an agreement on difficult issues.
"It is the same as the so-called impossibility to find a border 'light' control solution on the physical border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. They have found it. Nobody talks about it anymore," the French lawmaker remarked.
The next round of negotiations between the UK and EU is set to begin on June 29. The Financial Times newspaper on June 11 cited a UK government representative who said that an understanding had been reached for negotiators from London and Brussels to hold talks every week until July 31, indicating the desire of both sides to conclude the necessary deals.
Despite these efforts, the German government has urged the EU to draw up contingency plans for the potential of the transition period ending with no agreements in place, which would result in a so-called no-deal Brexit.
The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a June 2016 referendum, and four years later, the question of the country's future relationship with Brussels has still not been answered.
Theresa May famously said in 2016 that "Brexit means Brexit." However, the implications of the UK's withdrawal from the EU for people all across Europe remains unclear one year after the former prime minister stepped down from her position.
