BRUSSELS (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 06th February, 2020) A proposal recently made by Johann Wadephul, a member of the German parliament from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, that France should consider cooperation with Germany regarding nuclear weapons has not yet received an official reaction from Paris, but, according to experts, would likely cause outcry from the whole French political spectrum if accepted.
According to Wadephul, France, which, unlike Germany, has its own nuclear arsenal, should also "place its nuclear forces under the joint command of the European Union or NATO." This proposal came right after the United Kingdom, one of the five nuclear states, left the European Union on January 31 and against the backdrop of Germany's long-held aspirations to share France's permanent member seat in the UN Security Council.
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to address the issue during his speech on Friday.
Since World War II, Germany has seemed to be a diplomatic dwarf despite its growing economic dominance. It has always fulfilled the Maastricht Treaty's demands for the eurozone � public debt should be limited to 60 percent of GDP, while the annual deficit � to 3 percent of GDP. Comparatively, France has very rarely met the Maastricht criteria, which is currently hovering at above 100 percent of GDP.
However, Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition government has recently begun questioning this status for Germany. The chancellor even started giving budget lessons to France, providing advice to the successive governments of Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande and now Macron.
In 2018, German Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz suggested that France could share its permanent seat in the UN Security Council, making it common for all European countries.
"If we take the European Union seriously, it should also speak with one voice in the UN Security Council. In the end, the seat of France could be transformed into the seat of the European Union," Scholz has said.
France's response was not long in coming � Paris immediately made sure to the Germans that it firmly refuses to consider such a step. Wadephul's proposal, made a year and a half later, is an anathema to French politicians, both on the right and on the left of the political spectrum, and also very probably to the so-called Marchers � the politicians elected on Macron's lists of La Republique en Marche party.
Although Wadenphul refused to comment on his proposal to Sputnik, it is obvious that the nuclear issue is no longer taboo on the German side of the Rhine after the election of US President Donald Trump. Several voices are already speaking out for a shared European deterrence, or more accurately, deterrence shared with France.
Macron's November interview with The Economist, in which he said that NATO was experiencing "brain death," sparked exasperation among Germany's Bundestag members. Meanwhile, Merkel's government is also criticized by the country's opposition for being totally absent from diplomatic exchanges regarding the middle East, the relations with Russia and NATO or other international matters, leaving Macron to give the impression that he is the de facto leader of the European Union.
"It is no longer the German eagle that we have in front of us, but the German cuckoo! There, in France, will indeed be euro-blissful people to wish that our country enters the path of such, not collaboration, but cooperation. It is the story of a cuckoo and a cuckold," George Michel, a French journalist and ex-military man said, commenting on the issue, as quoted by Boulevard Voltaire news website.
THE ONLY FULL-FLEDGED DEFENSE FORCE IN EUROPE
Today, France is the only country in the European Union that can deploy pre-positioned forces. It paid a heavy blood tax in the recent conflicts � from Afghanistan to Mali and the Sahel region � fighting Islamists. At the same time, developing the nuclear deterrence force has been a priority for Paris.
To give substance to its strategy, France acquired a significant nuclear arsenal, which accounted for more than 500 operational warheads in the 1990s � the number equivalent to that of the United Kingdom but representing only 1 or 2 percent of stocks accumulated by the United States or the Soviet Union during the same period.
Since the end of the Cold War, this stock has been regularly reduced: at the end of 2017, France had 280 deployed nuclear warheads and from 10 to 20 others in reserve.
A military expert and former nuclear battery commander, Pierre Henrot, told Sputnik that Germany's proposal to share France's nuclear force was "ridiculous," and that only Washington could wage a nuclear war within NATO.
"The Merkel government's wish to somehow co-own the French nuclear weapons is ridiculous. The problem lies not in the nuclear weapon itself but in the means of projection. Only the United States has the full array of equipment, satellite coverage, command bodies and know-how to lead a nuclear war within NATO. France's Rafale planes alone would not penetrate far enough into the Russian defense. Merkel seems to have waited until Brexit was behind us to talk about sharing the French deterrence. Of course, money helps ... and the French are short of it right now. So, who knows?" Henrot stated.
The expert added that if Macron accepted Berlin's proposal, it would cause a strong protest of all the French political forces.
"If Macron accepts the idea of sharing responsibility with Germany, there would be an outcry in France, and not only on the right of the political spectrum," Henrot outlined.
French military doctrine does not precisely define the "vital interests" that the nuclear deterrence force is responsible to protect, as, according to the document, it is "the ultimate and sole responsibility of the head of the state to assess" and decide what response should be given in each specific case.
Macron will speak on the deterrence and military strategy on Friday before the trainees of the Military school in Paris. His words will be carefully listened to, given more and more voices across the Rhine are wondering about Germany's deterrence issue.
At a recent press conference with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Macron confirmed that he would raise the nuclear issue during his speech on Friday, noting that the interests of the rest of the European countries were "always taken into account."
"On the nuclear question, it is up to me to define vital interests and I will have the opportunity, no later than Friday morning, to come back to this point at great length during the speech I will have to deliver [at the Paris Military School]. But I want to make it clear here that in my eyes the interests of our European partners are always taken into account. I will come back specifically to the doctrine but also to the procedures that I wish to propose on this subject to our partners in the coming month," Macron stated.
According to Wolfgang Ischinger, a former diplomat and the incumbent chair of the Munich Security Conference, the French deterrence system "should benefit the European Union in exchange for a financial contribution from the member states to its development and implementation," that, in other words, means that Berlin proposes sharing the costs of the French nuclear force. Given that the French Military Program Law 2019-2025 provides for a funding envelope of 37 billion Euros ($40.7 billion) for the country's nuclear deterrence, there is still a possibility that Macron could be tempted by Germany's intent to contribute.
ISSUE OF UNSC PERMANENT SEAT SHARING
The Germans are still under the influence of their past and have never insisted on getting diplomatic representation in relation to their economic might within the European Union. Merkel never contradicts the American ally for long and always tries to persuade the European partners to avoid confrontation.
According to Thierry Mariani, a member of the European Parliament and adviser to France's National Rally (RN) party leader, Marine Le Pen, the balance of forces between Paris and Berlin has changed over the past years, which led to the situation in which such issues as the sharing of France's permanent seat in the UN Security Council and its nuclear force became reality.
"The Germans are changing. Today, they insistently claim the communitarization of France's permanent seat in the UN Security Council, and they speak more and more insistently about participating in the financing of the French nuclear force. As everyone knows, who pays decides! Until now, apart from the UK, France and Germany each had their strengths within the bloc � there have always been economically dominant Germany and diplomatically and politically dominant France due to its UN seat and the strategic nuclear force. We were in balance. Today Germany strongly questions this," the expert said.
Mariani also said that the RN strongly opposed the possibility of creating a common European seat in the UN Security Council instead of the permanent one belonging to France, as well as sharing the nuclear force with Germany, as it would mark the end of French independence.
"For Marine Le Pen and RN, it is an absolute 'no.' Similarly, regarding the French nuclear force, I fear that Macron, who widely distributed the money in an attempt to calm the yellow vest protests, will be tempted by the possibility of sharing the financial burden of the French strike force with Germany. French independence would be over. RN is already in favor of leaving NATO integrated command, so we strongly oppose this Macron's new capitulation, readiness to lose all the French influence on the international scene," Mariani said.
There is no such thing as a free gift in politics, Mariani concluded.
