ANALYSIS - US 'Max Pressure' Campaign On Iran, Lack Of Diplomatic Exit Likely To Boost Tensions

WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 09th January, 2020) US President Donald Trump's pledge to maintain maximum economic on Iran to abandon its nuclear program is guaranteed to escalate already dangerously high tensions in the region, analysts told Sputnik.

Earlier on Wednesday, Trump during an address said the United States would immediately impose sanctions on Iran for missile strikes against US forces in Iraq. US officials have said no Americans or Iraqis were killed in the strikes.

On Tuesday night, Iran launched a missile attack on two bases in Iraq housing US personnel to avenge the United States' extrajudicial killing of Iran's top general Qasem Soleimani. The Pentagon claimed that of the 16 missiles launched, 11 struck al-Asad airbase, four hit a base in Erbil, while four misfired.

International Crisis Group Analyst Naysan Rafati said although Trump's response was relatively muted, the sanctions threat was troubling.

"The US [is still] committed to its 'maximum pressure' strategy, including through the threat of additional sanctions, and Iran committed to 'maximum resistance' against it," Rafati told Sputnik.

While Tehran can claim to have given an overt response to Soleimani's killing, underlying tensions remain, Rafati said.

He also said that the past week's events underscored the need for the United States and Iran to look beyond the avoidance of escalation and instead shift towards serious de-escalation.

California State University Emeritus Professor of politics Beau Grosscup agreed that tensions between Washington and Tehran would continue.

The big question for the United States remained how to combine air strikes and diplomatic efforts in its dealings with Iran, Grosscup told Sputnik.

In the short term, relations between Washington and Tehran were likely to settle into a Cold War-type "deep freeze" absent public diplomacy.

He also suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin could play a central role behind closed doors to ease tensions between Iran and the United States.

Trump during Wednesday's press conference urged Russia, China, the United Kingdom, Germany and France to break away from the Iran nuclear agreement, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Grosscup argued that it was unlikely Russia and Europe would follow Trump's advice.

"Iran has announced only that it will no longer abide by the JCPOA limitations on the number of centrifuges. As long as Iran refuses to surrender or new negotiations allow Trump to put his name on essentially the old arrangements there will be no new deal on Iran's nuclear program under Trump," he said.

Moreover, the professor added, the Iranians will not sit alongside the United States at any negotiating table while air strikes continue.

During the press brief, the US president also called on NATO to become "much more involved" in middle East affairs. The United States has achieved energy independence and does not need overseas oil, thus becoming more flexible and less vulnerable to developments in the Middle East, he said.

Grosscup said Trump's appeal was likely to fall on deaf ears.

"What kind of response will Trump get from NATO allies about seeking to further involve them in the Middle East and against Iran? Only public statements in support of his 'terrorist assassination' but they have no real interest in increasing NATO's or their own involvement other than trying to reduce tensions [and] maintain the JCPOA," he said.

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday that Tehran's nuclear activities would be peaceful after the fifth stage of reduction of obligations under the Iranian nuclear deal.