WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 07th January, 2020) US attempts to trigger a war with Iran including through false-flag operations are likely to fail, former Defense Department adviser Karen Kwiatkowski told Sputnik.
Last week, President Donald Trump ordered the assassination of Iranian Quds Force Commander Major General Qasem Soleimani citing evidence of plotting against American interests. However, after confidential briefings, several US lawmakers have expressed skepticism that the general posed an imminent threat.
"Given that the Islamic State [terrorist group banned in Russia] was largely eliminated and... the need for US troops in Iraq and Syria greatly reduced, this assassination clearly serves those US decision-makers who wish to remain inside of Iraq and Syria, and those who wish to take a war to Iran," she said. "On the other hand, previous false flags in the region intended to incite a US retaliatory attack directly on Iran have failed to work as hoped."
Kwiatkowski said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and neoconservatives in Washington all wanted the United States to be drawn into a new round of serious war in Iraq.
The US-Israel-Saudi Arabia axis, she added, has been operationally planning an attack on Iran for well over 18 months.
Iranian retaliation for the assassination of their top general while he was visiting a third country was comparable to Iran assassinating Pompeo or CIA Director Gina Haspel while they were visiting Yemen, Saudi Arabia or Qatar, Kwiatkowski suggested.
"That kind of grand tit-for-tat will likely not happen, but it puts into perspective how amazingly idiotic the national security decision-makers in Washington and in Tel Aviv really are, and how little concern they have for their own citizens and in the US case, for the US Constitution," she said.
US intelligence was largely in the dark about what direction Iranian policies would take following Soleimani's killing and although Israel clearly had assumptions of its own, it remained to be seen if these would be fulfilled, Kwiatkowski noted.
"These are all 'acts of war' but past Congresses have accepted them... This time, we may see the Senate question Trump and his staff on this act, but as the Senate is dominated by Republicans and pro-intervention Democrats, Trump should not have much of a legal problem there," she said.
The killing of a highly ranked general by the United States in retaliation for the allegedly "wartime" killing of an American contractor was not a proportional use of military force, Kwiatkowski said.
"No doubt, the window of opportunity presented itself, and the urgency of this strike was pressed upon Trump," she said.
The United States had already amassed nuclear tipped bunker buster type bombs, deliverable by a variety of US aircraft, in Saudi Arabia with 60,000 to 80,000 US troops already in the region, Kwiatkowski cautioned.
However, any full-scale US war on Iran was not something for which the US military had a concrete objective, Kwiatkowski emphasized.
"Much like US operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, and Syria, traditional Clausewitz strategy and rationales are impossible to apply. There is no long term objective, beyond CIA fantasies of changing Iran's leadership," she said.
Also, Iran was now "100 percent likely" to retaliate against the United States for killing Soleimani, Kwiatkowski said.
"Figuring out how and when may be tricky. However, when and if Iranians and/or the Iranian government choose to retaliate may be a moot point, as the region is ripe for a third or fourth US or Israeli false flag event in the past 12 months," she said.
Trump faced the prospect of war with Iran after an exceptionally grueling year during which he was impeached by the House of Representatives and still faced a possible impeachment trial in the Senate, Kwiatkowski said.
"President Trump is very likely worn down mentally and physically, and his last important executive decision was the firing of [national security adviser] John Bolton almost six months ago. Now [Trump's] most trusted advisers are family members with no experience in war and peace," she said.
