WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 26th June, 2019) Most Democratic candidates during the presidential Primary debates in Florida this week will likely spend most of their time attacking President Donald Trump's policies although some underdogs or rebels could try to challenge the establishment, political analysts told Sputnik.
The Democratic Party kicks-off its first presidential primary debates in Miami this week with a slate of 20 candidates divided evenly across Wednesday and Thursday nights. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has said the two-night contest in Miami will be one of 12 primary debates, six of which are scheduled to take place this year.
Recent polling has former US Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders and Senator Elizabeth Warren as clear frontrunners in the race. Biden has led three of the most recent major polls, garnering from 26 to 39 percent of voter support, with Sanders getting from 12-15% and Warren 10-16%.
Warren will be the biggest name among the ten taking the stage on Wednesday night. The second night of the debate is more heavily stacked, featuring Biden and Sanders along with up-and-coming South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Kamala Harris, a former California Attorney General, in addition to six other contenders.
Farleigh Dickinson University Professor of Political Science Dan Cassino told Sputnik that lower tier candidates will try to get in fights with higher tier candidates, especially Biden, but all should focus on attacking Trump's agenda.
"The candidates need to come out as anti-Trump as possible in order to excite the base, while not looking unreasonable in a way that might alienate swing voters. The best way seems to be to attack his policies, without attacking him personally," Cassino said.
Cassino expects the top tier candidates to be play defense, avoid gaffes and try and "look presidential" as they have the most to lose.
Biden, for one, is likely to focus all his energy on Trump and avoid taking on the likes of Sanders, he said.
"Biden doesn't seem to have any interest in engaging with Sanders, or any other Democrat: He's focusing entirely on the President. I think it's likely that Sanders will make some veiled attacks on Biden, but I think Biden is likely to ignore them," Cassino said.
Biden, Sanders and Warren need to avoid getting in the mud with the lower tier candidates, Cassino cautioned.
"If I were their strategist, I'd tell them to ignore the other Democrats, and talk about why they can successfully take on Trump," he said
Political commentator Jillian Jonas agreed that all the candidates had to focus on Trump rather than each other to woo their base.
"In the end, all roads lead to Trump no matter who wins the nomination. Democrats cannot afford a repeat of Hillary versus Bernie in the 2016 Democratic nomination race," Jonas told Sputnik.
In addition to Warren, Wednesday night's cast will include former Housing Secretary Julian Castro, Washington Governor Jay Inslee, Senator Corey Booker (New York), Senator Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota), Representatives Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii) and Tim Ryan (Ohio), along with former congressmen Beto O'Rourke and John Delaney. New York Mayor Bill de Blasio will also participate.
On Thursday, Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg and Harris will be joined by six other candidates: Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (New York), Senator Michael Bennet (Colorado), Representative Erick Swalwell (California), Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, author Marianne Williamson and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.
Cassino acknowledged that with so many candidates in the field some may roll the dice to stand out.
"Everyone on stage is going to be trying to generate a viral moment to get coverage the following day. It's a high risk strategy - if an attempted moment fails, it fails big - but it's a gamble the candidates at the back of the pack need to take," he said.
The lower tier candidates would try to excite the Democratic primary base by talking up their policy proposals for issues like college affordability and criminal justice reform, while the higher tier candidates are going to be working on general election issues, especially health care, he noted.
The clashes between so many rivals could well prove counter-productive and increasingly futile, Jonas warned.
Jonas claimed that several of the candidates already appeared superfluous in the face of other more clearly identified and prominent figures in the race.
"If the point is electability over being progressive, then you've got Biden. You don't need candidates like Gabbard or Hickenlooper. If it is a political platform left of the American center, you've got Warren and Sanders," she said.
Political commentator and retired professor John Walsh told Sputnik Sanders and Gabbard stood out from the other hopefuls competing in the debates as the only ones capable of truly challenging the establishment.
Gabbard, he pointed out, in addition to forcefully addressing regime change wars and the danger of nuclear holocaust has been one of the only ones to emphasize negotiation and cooperation with countries like Russia, China, Iran and Syria.
"In 2016 there was a rebellion against the corrupt, pro-war, hawkish Democratic Establishment. Bernie led it and Tulsi gave up a plum position on the DNC to join it. None of the others did because they are all careerists," Walsh said. "Tulsi and Bernie walked the walk in 2016."
