WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 02nd November, 2022) US voters cast final ballots in the midterm elections next week to determine control of Congress going into President Joe Biden's second term, with polls showing Republicans well-positioned to seize the House while the battle for the Senate appears likely to come down to the wire.
On November 8, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate will be up for grabs as Democrats seek to keep their legislative majority and Republicans vie for the ability to implement a policy agenda of their own.
Polls and analysts trend towards giving the Republicans an edge one week out from midterms, although races remain competitive as issues like the economy, inflation and abortion, continue to factor into voters' decisionmaking leading up to Election Day.
With races so tight, officials are also taking steps to ensure that elections are held securely and without interference that could potentially impact results.
Democrats currently maintain a majority in the Senate, with 48 party members, two independents and Vice President Kamala Harris' vote as president of the chamber putting them in control. Republicans hold 50 seats at the present time.
Democrats hold 14 of the Senate seats up for grabs in the midterms, while Republicans hold 21. Although 35 of the Senate's 100 seats will be contested during midterms, several key races are positioned to determine control of the chamber. Senate races are particularly close in state such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all of which are also traditionally considered "battleground" locations in presidential elections.
Current Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey, a Republican, announced in October 2020 that he would not seek re-election. Democrat John Fetterman, the state's lieutenant governor, now challenges Republican surgeon and television star Mehmet Oz for the seat.
The race between Fetterman and Oz remains close, with the RealClearPolitics' (RCP) average of the most recent polls for November 1 giving Fetterman a 1.5 point lead.
In Georgia, Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock, elected during a special runoff election in 2021, faces Republican challenger Herschel Walker, a former National Football League player.
RCP's average has Walker up 1.6 points over Warnock, predicting a December runoff due to the tight race. Under Georgia state law, a runoff election will occur on December 6 if no candidate garners more than 50% of the vote, which is possible in this Senate race because of its competitiveness and the presence of Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver.
In Wisconsin, Republican incumbent Ron Johnson faces Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes. Johnson holds a 3.3 point lead over Barnes, according to RCP's average for November 1.
In Nevada, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto defends her Senate seat against Republican Adam Laxalt, the state's former attorney general. The seat could swing either way, with the RCP average placing Laxalt ahead by less than 1 percent.
Other notable Senate races include the elections in Arizona and Utah. Arizona's Democratic incumbent, Mark Kelly, won a special election for the Senate seat in 2020. Republican entrepreneur Blake Masters is now challenging him for the position, but is down by 2.4 points. A Republican group dumped $5 million into the race to run ads tying Kelly to Biden administration policies and inflation, Club for Growth told Axios on Saturday.
US Senator for Utah Mike Lee is being challenged for his seat not by a Democrat, but by Independent Evan McMullin, who would become the first non-Republican to represent the state in the Senate since 1977 if victorious.
However, an Emerson College poll released October 31 shows 49% of voters supporting Lee and 39% supporting McMullin.
Of the 435 House seats up for grabs, Democrats currently hold 220 while Republicans hold 212. There are also three vacant seats. A total of 218 seats are needed to obtain a majority in the lower chamber.
RCP lists 228 House seats as likely or leaning Republican, 174 seats likely or leaning Democrat and 33 seats as toss-ups. A majority of the toss-up seats, 28 of 33, are held by Democrats.
Numbers in some House races are "not where they should be," former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said in October. Democrats are worried and fearful of where the momentum is headed, Psaki said.
Control of the House is of particular importance for continuing elevated levels of security aid to Ukraine, following a statement by current House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy saying that Republicans will not continue to write Kiev a "blank check" if given a majority.
McCarthy is a favorite to become Speaker of the House if Republicans win control of the chamber.
Republican control of the House, as well as the Senate, could also impede Biden's efforts to codify Federal abortion protections - legislation he promised to pass if Democrats retain their majority - and pass other governing priorities such as an assault weapons ban.
A Gallup poll on Tuesday found that approval of presidential and congressional job performances are at 40% and 21% respectively. The party of the incumbent president typically loses seats during midterm elections when the president's approval rating falls below 50% and Congress's approval rating below 35%, the poll noted.
The midterm will be the first nationwide, federal election since 2020, following which demonstrators stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 to disrupt the certification of electoral results in favor of Biden.
The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is focused on securing both cyber and physical aspects of the nation's election system ahead of midterms, Rob Silver, DHS Under Secretary for Strategy, Policy, and Plans, said in October.
DHS is working on securing election infrastructure such as voter registration databases and voting equipment, Silvers said. The department is also addressing physical security concerns at polling places and vote tabulation centers amid threats to election administrators, Silvers added.
On Election Day, DHS will run a 24/7 watch operation and maintain live contact with state and local election officials, according to Silvers.
Moreover, the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE) has deployed 40 long-term observers across the US and 17 experts in Washington to monitor the midterm elections.
Voting rights in the US are subject to numerous restrictions, including restrictions on the voting rights of inmates, former felons and the disabled, an OSCE interim report analyzing the US electoral environment found. The Democratic and Republican parties are engaged in campaigns marked by "intensely divisive and at times inflammatory rhetoric," the OSCE also found.
With absentee voting by mail possible in all 50 states, claims continue to circulate that absentee ballots are more susceptible to fraud, impacting trust in the electoral process, the OSCE added.
OSCE will release a report on its preliminary findings about the midterms on November 9.
Millions of Americans have already cast ballots through early voting across the US, with more than 7.8 million ballots cast as of October 24 - exceeding the previous record set during the 2018 midterms.
