WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 15th June, 2021) President Joe Biden will fail to parlay any progress made with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva toward dampening Moscow's cooperation with Beijing, analysts told Sputnik.
In a wide ranging interview with NBC aired on Monday, Putin accused Washington of trying to "destroy" Russia's partnership with China. He also said Moscow's relationship with Beijing is "unprecedentedly high" and one both sides cherish.
The interview comes ahead of Wednesday's high-profile summit in Geneva, where the US and Russian leaders are expected to have frank conversations on a slew of contentious issues ranging from Ukraine to cybersecurity. However, at the same time, both sides have recently signaled a desire to normalize relations.
Not to mention, the summit setting - an 18th-century villa where the First Geneva Convention (1864) was held - is one many believe could foster an atmosphere of compromise.
SEEKING NEUTRALITY IN SWITZERLAND
Rapprochement between the two superpowers will be a daunting task given the bilateral relationship has hit an all-time low, a reality underscored by Putin during the same interview with NBC. And there is plenty of skepticism around Biden's ability to negotiate reasonably given the anti-Russian sentiment among his inner circle and the political establishment in Washington.
That said, some experts believe because Washington's number one priority is to contain China at all costs, trying to mend relations with Moscow may be a necessity.
"Biden is beginning to understand that containing China without Russia's neutrality is impossible and that both history and domestic politics won't be kind to him if he fails to accomplish it," San Francisco State University Professor Andrei Tsygankov told Sputnik.
Tsygankov said China's increasingly alliance-like relations with Moscow is one of two power-based incentives behind the Biden administration's bid to improve relations with Russia.
The other incentive, Tsygankov added, is recognition that Russia possesses sufficient capabilities to inflict major harm on the United States and that the Kremlin has the will to act on its power if Russia's core interests are not respected.
According to University of Pittsburgh Professor of International Affairs Michael Brenner, Biden clearly sees Geneva as a crucial step for tempering the hostility that has marked the relationship. The US is calculating that recent gestures - like lifting Nord Stream 2-related sanctions - can "mollify" Russian antagonism toward the West, he added.
"That, in turn, Washington hopes, could cool its [Moscow's] enthusiasm for the strategic partnership with Beijing - making it easier for the US to concentrate on its struggle for global supremacy with China while weakening the latter's hand," Brenner told Sputnik. "However, this ploy is doomed to failure."
The United States, Brenner warned, cannot undue the cumulative effects of nearly 30 years of disparagement and ten years of punitive actions accompanied by batteries of insults in a single meeting.
"Russia's intensifying partnership with China is now a fait accompli," Brenner said. "That historic development creates a whole new constellation of global forces that alters the balance in the contest between the US and China."
The growing tensions have significantly disrupted diplomatic operations in both Russia and the United States. In March - after a barrage of US sanctions, insults and allegations - Moscow invited Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov back home just weeks before Biden's ambassador to Russia returned to Washington.
However, in the run up to the Putin-Biden talks small positive steps have been taken and overtures exchanged. The State Department confirmed last week that it expects US ambassador to Russia John Sullivan to return in the coming weeks.
Tsygankov said that while progress on the diplomatic front is indeed possible no one should expect major breakthroughs like returning properties that have been seized over the years.
"Some steps to normalization will be if both sides' ambassadors return to their duties, some visa restrictions are removed, and staffing levels are increased," Tsygankov said.
However, Los Alamos Working Group Executive Director Greg Mello warned that even loosening visa restrictions will not come easily. The main problem is that Biden is badly confined by the rhetoric of his own Democratic Party, Mello told Sputnik, which wants to see the US president take a confrontational approach with Putin.
Both the US and Russia have pointed to strategic stability and arms control as areas for possible constructive dialogue. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov specifically said they hope to hear Biden's reaction to Putin's proposal on cybersecurity cooperation.
Tsygankov, however, thinks significant progress on cybersecurity is unlikely because the sides' positions are too different, with Russia wanting a pact on non-interference in domestic affairs, which the United States still views as interference with a free internet.
"In terms of relative power, neither side is ready for concessions," Tsygankov said. "There is an approximation of mutual deterrence with respect to potential attacks on critically important infrastructure."
Tsygankov did suggest that a working group could be established to look for ways to address what both sides view as cyber-crimes and violations of their political space.
On the arms control front, Tsygankov said some progress could be made but expectations should be limited.
"Assuming the summit goes well from both sides' perspective, one can expect the establishment of working groups on various dimensions of strategic stability - middle- and long-range nukes, non-nuclear strategic weapons, limits on the militarization of the outer space and Arctic, and others," Tsygankov said.
However, mulling a broad treaty is at best premature, he added, because neither side is ready, not to mention the looming question of China's participation.
"It's not even clear if such a treaty is possible or necessary given that the international political environment is so different from the Cold War," Tsygankov said. "Instead of a new Cold War as an ideological and largely symmetrical global confrontation, we have a series of overlapping and asymmetric great power rivalries with multiple actors involved."
