While being part of China's plan to improve energy security amid the global COVID-19 pandemic, the revival of coal-fired power plants this year could hinder Beijing's ambitious pledge to combat climate change, energy experts told Sputnik
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 16th December, 2020) While being part of China's plan to improve energy security amid the global COVID-19 pandemic, the revival of coal-fired power plants this year could hinder Beijing's ambitious pledge to combat climate change, energy experts told Sputnik.
During the United Nations 2020 Climate Ambition Summit on Saturday, Chinese President Xi Jinping outlined the country's further commitments to combat climate change after pledging in September to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.
"China will lower its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by over 65 percent from the 2005 level, increase the share of non-fossil fuels in Primary energy consumption to around 25 percent, increase the forest stock volume by 6 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level, and bring its total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilowatts," Xi said during the speech.
Despite Xi's apparent strong ambitions and commitment in fighting climate change, local authorities in China approved more coal-fired power plants in 2020 in an attempt to boost national energy security amid concerns over possible energy supply disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
A coal-fired power plant's two 1000-megawatt units went into operation on September 10 in Maoming in southern Guangdong province. The thermal power plant operated by the Guangdong Energy Group plans to expand its capacity to eight 1000-megawatt units by 2023.
According to a report from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Chinese authorities relaxed the restrictions on the construction of new coal-fired power plants in early 2020, ending the curb on such projects that was introduced in 2016. A total of 46 gigawatt of new coal-fired capacity was reportedly under construction and a further 48 gigawatt was in the early stages of planning and development as of May 2020, the report said.
The revival of coal-fired power plants could impede Beijing's ambitious pledge to combat climate change, as the central government and local authorities in China toggle over the issue, energy experts suggested.
"There are currently very widely diverging views between local governments, energy experts and state-owned enterprises about what the new commitments mean for the next 5-10 years, and how fast the shift needs to happen. When the coal industry and local decision-makers expect new restrictions, they will work extra hard to start as many projects as possible before the crackdown starts - this is a part of the cat-and-mouse game between Beijing and the provinces," Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told Sputnik.
Other energy experts explained the resistance the central government in China could face in reducing the usage of coal in the nation's energy mix.
"The constraints to reducing coal use lie in the strong vested interests in the coal industry: the coal mining companies, the thermal power companies, the millions of people working for these companies, and the local governments hosting these companies and people. So the contradiction between central government clean energy aspirations and political realities," Philip Andrews-Speed, senior principal fellow at the National University of Singapore's Energy Studies Institute, told Sputnik.
To reach the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, China has to significantly cut back its reliance on coal, which accounts for about 57 percent of the nation's total annual energy consumption.
Expanding electricity generation from wind and solar would be the key if China wants to reduce its reliance on coal, Myllyvirta from the CREA suggested.
"The answer will involve a mix of all low-carbon energy sources: wind, solar, hydropower, nuclear and biomass. Currently, hydropower is the largest source of non-fossil power generation, but most of its potential has already been tapped. The projections underpinning China's carbon neutrality pledge foresee the capacity of wind and solar power more than tripling during this decade, with nuclear capacity approximately doubling. Most of the increase in electricity generation will come from wind and solar, with these sources increasing from 9 percent of China's power generation to around 25-30 percent in 2030," he said.
China also needs to invest in improving management systems that are capable of handling the increased power generation capacity from renewable sources, the expert pointed out.
"Variable renewable energy is currently 9 percent of total generation in China, which is a level that should be very easy to manage. As the share increases towards 30 percent in 10 years, grid planning and flexibility are the key solutions, and China is also starting to invest in electricity storage on large scale," he said.
It's better for China to set more specific goals on renewable energy's share in the country's energy mix in its upcoming 14th five-year-plan, which usually serves as a guideline for the nation's economic growth, Myllyvirta argued.
"The country has already set the targets for 2030 and 2060, now the most essential thing is to start making progress towards these targets and not leaving the heavy lifting to the later five-year periods. If I have to give one number to watch: the share of non-fossil energy will be 16 percent this year, and the target for 2030 is 25 percent, so for 2025, 20.5 percent would put the country on track," he said.
Andrews-Speed from the National University of Singapore added that it would be helpful to demonstrate the country's commitment to combat climate change, if China's 14th five-year-plan would include concrete plans to close coal-fired power stations and how they will compensate the companies if there are stranded costs.
