BRUSSELS (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 07th September, 2020) With the eighth round of London-Brussels talks scheduled to begin on Tuesday, the UK House of Commons is planning to vote this week on the government's new bill aimed at nullifying key parts of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU that had been signed by former Prime Minister Theresa May, which hampers reaching a post-Brexit deal, set to be finalized by January 1st, 2021.
If adopted, the provisions including agreements on state aid and Northern Ireland customs would be overridden. According to an insider, the move will "clearly and deliberately" undermine October's commitments to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland. The UK government's proposal will reportedly be published on Wednesday.
Another move that threatens the post-Brexit agreement is UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's recent announcement setting October 15 as a deadline for Brussels and London to negotiate their trade relations following the transition period.
"The EU have been very clear about the timetable. I am too. There needs to be an agreement with our European friends by the time of the European Council on 15 October if it's going to be in force by the end of the year. So there is no sense in thinking about timelines that go beyond that point. If we can't agree by then, then I do not see that there will be a free trade agreement between us, and we should both accept that and move on," the prime minister said, as quoted by his office.
According to the prime minister's office, London and Brussels have now reached "the final phase" of negotiations. However, in case the talks fail, the UK and the EU will trade under a model that the bloc has with Australia, which Johnson says will be "a good outcome" for the UK.
Meanwhile, UK chief negotiator David Frost has expressed an even sharper stance than Johnson. According to the diplomat, the UK has nothing to fear from a no-deal Brexit, which means that trade relations between London and Brussels will be based on the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.
Since the sides do not have much time to reach a final agreement, some fear the economic break would be even harder in early 2021 with tolls and other trade barriers.
EU NEGOTIATING TEAM LOSING ITS HAUGHTINESS IN TALKS WITH UK
Michel Barnier, the EU Chief negotiator, has lost a lot of his arrogance in the talks with London, as threats have given way to complaints about a "lack of progress" because of the UK team.
"Those who expected for negotiations to speed up this week will be disappointed. And frankly, I am disappointed too... We have shown flexibility and creativity ... The UK has shown no willingness to seek compromises," Barnier said ahead of the fresh round of talks, adding that it is time for London to reciprocate.
The sticking points remain the same � the role of the European Court of Justice that could meddle in the UK affairs, fair competition in the single market for UK products and access to UK waters for European fishermen.
The EU sets non-negotiable provisions, which the United Kingdom must accept in order to obtain free trade conditions never before granted to a third country � no customs duties and no quotas.
Meanwhile, London wants its drivers to be exempted from complying with European standards while having access to the roads of the single market, like any member states, which is unacceptable for Brussels, seeking to protect thousands of jobs within the bloc, the rights of EU workers and consumers. Within the context, Frost has accused the European Union of being inflexible and making the negotiations "unnecessarily difficult."
Another stumbling block, fishing rights, has led to emotional declarations, such as "get off our waters!" by Tory lawmakers who warned Barnier that he must understand "our fishing waters are ours, hands off."
The UK's exclusive economic zone - the waters that the country will take back control of after Brexit � are huge (200 nautical miles all around), compared to the territorial waters of its neighbors, especially Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands or Belgium. While the EU wants to secure continued access to UK waters for the bloc's fishing boats, London is adamant that UK trawlers will be given priority.
At the moment, the exclusive economic zone of every EU member state is merged into one large zone, which can be accessed by fishermen from all over Europe and is regulated by the bloc's controversial Common Fisheries Policy. The UK, in turn, wants to retake full control of its zone following Brexit.
An ongoing row over post-Brexit fishing rights has sparked fears of a return to the so-called Cod Wars of the 1950s and 1970s between the UK and Iceland about fishing cod in Icelandic extended territorial waters. Those confrontations saw the UK and Iceland clash repeatedly over access to waters in the North Atlantic. Back then, the Royal Navy had to stop Icelandic boats from interfering with UK trawlers.
Another example of such confrontations took place in 2018 when a so-called "scallop war" erupted with French and UK boats angrily clashing over access to shellfish off the coast of Normandy, in French waters.
Given the importance of fishing rights, the European team has made it the key stumbling block, saying that without an agreement on fisheries, there will be no agreement at all.
UK SHOWING NO WILLINGNESS TO COMPROMISE
The European side has been concerned about lack of progress in reaching a post-Brexit trade agreement, as if there is no deal until the end of the transition period, the only rules that will regulate trade between Brussels and London will be that of the WTO, with their high customs duties and extensive customs controls. Given that the European economies are barely recovering from the COVID-19 outbreak, this would mean a "double dip" and a further weakening of the economies already hit hard by the pandemic.
Boris Johnson's latest announcement regarding the October 15 deadline only aggravated the situation.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, in turn, told France Inter radio that there was an urgent need to find an agreement on Brexit. According to the minister, if the bloc wants to negotiate a good agreement, it must not only talk about subjects in which London is interested.
"We must talk about the global subjects of the future relationship with the United Kingdom... The British try to divide the Europeans. They were convinced, when the withdrawal agreement was being prepared, that they were going to be able, here and there, to have complicity ... This is what they are trying to do," Le Drian said.
Commenting on the new deadline set by Johnson, Gilles Lebreton, a French member of the European Parliament, told Sputnik that the UK would remain a true friend and economic partner, whatever the result of the discussions with the European Commission is.
"Boris Johnson was right to stick to the timetable from day one, whatever happens. He needs to be firm and announces now that if no agreement is reached by October 15, Britain might satisfy itself with the WTO rules and a 'no-deal' with the EU. Hearing the increasingly rigid answers on both sides, this is now the most probable decision," Lebreton said.
According to the lawmaker, the issues that hinder the talks are not insurmountable and the coming weeks will be decisive.
"The European Union has often signed difficult agreements by stopping the clocks at midnight on the last day of hard negotiations, to finalize the discussions. It might be the case again this time, but I doubt it now. But even if it is a no-deal on January 1, nothing forbids the UK and the EU to apply the World Trade Organization rules and negotiate gradually after that agreements, probably on a bilateral mode, between individual member states and the UK," the lawmaker added.
Meanwhile, Francis Cole, ex-civil servant at the European Commission and close adviser to Nigel Farage from the UK Independence Party, told Sputnik that the UK is probably set up for a "no-deal" option.
"The discussions are accelerating suddenly. In the London House of Commons, they are now closing all the loopholes of the Withdrawal Agreement signed by Theresa May, obviously preparing for a 'no-deal,' despite the presence of Michel Barnier in London on the same day. David Frost even let it be known that Britain might be better off without a deal. The EU says, of course, the opposite," Cole said.
According to the politician, the Conservative government takes advantage of the crisis in the Labour party and its lack of cohesion, as well as the nearly total disappearance of the Liberal Democrats, to force a decision. In addition, the immigration issue, which was pivotal in the referendum decision to leave Europe, is becoming relevant again, with thousands of undocumented migrants crossing the channel by speedboats from France. As of now, these migrants cannot be deported because of the EU commitments to human rights in the Lisbon treaty.
"The conservative government wants to hasten a Brexit decision to tear up all the European obligations and organize proper deportation," Cole added.
As for the fishing rights, which have become an emotional issue within the conservative party, the politician expressed confidence that London would be able to regenerate its fishing industry.
"I am sure the UK can regenerate its fishing industry and benefit from it, but the actual problem is how to police the new territorial waters, and stop EU fishing fleets to barge in," Cole said.
Given that there are only less than 6 weeks left before the October 15 deadline and positions are still too far apart on every issue, the politician said that the most likely scenario is a "no-deal" Brexit. According to Cole, the UK can leave on WTO terms and start negotiating tariffs and customs rights for specific sectors on a one on one basis with the individual member states.
