Experts Defend Phased COVID-19 Lockdown Easing in UK to Avert Possible 2nd Surge in Deaths

LONDON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 07th May, 2020) The United Kingdom's stringent lockdown measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be eased in the coming weeks despite existing anxiety regarding a possible "second spike" in deaths, and experts are calling for a gradual lifting of restrictions with "maximum gain and minimum risk."

Carol Propper, a professor of economics at Imperial College London and a fellow of the Institute of Fiscal Studies, said that concerns over a second surge in deaths remained a priority, making it imperative that the lockdown be eased gradually.

"A second spike is what is driving the government and other bodies' concerns at the moment. There is no point in coming out of lockdown to have a second spike. So, I think that any lockdown coming out of that we are going to be seeing is going to be gradual for just that reason," she said during an online panel discussion, answering a question by Sputnik on whether it made sense to ease the lockdown when not so much time had passed since the daily death rate began to decline.

According to Propper, it is crucial now to make a thorough assessment and decide which sectors could be opened first with "maximum gain and minimum risk," given that more transmission cases happen indoors.

Responding to the same question from Sputnik � on whether ending the UK lockdown policy was viable � Michael Marmot, the director of the UCL Institute of Health Equity and an adviser to the World Health Organization, also called for caution, stating that widespread testing and containment is needed to be implemented.

"We, obviously, want to open up as quickly as possible but not more quickly than that. Widespread testing ... monitoring of contacts and the isolation and quarantining of contacts is an important part of allowing us to open up," he said.

Marmot stressed that UK strategies to curb the pandemic did not depend on complete global lockdown.

"So we have got strategies of containment that do not depend on wholesale lockdown of the whole economy. That is vitally important.

We are likely going to have to wear masks in public. That is what we are doing throughout East Asia... And we are going to have to put in place these measures, crucially, of widespread testing, tracing of contacts and isolation of contacts and other protective measures at the same time," Marmot said.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has likewise said that "maximum caution" is required as citizens gradually come out from the COVID-19 lockdown imposed on March 23. After an initially alarming period that witnessed wide-scale panic across the UK and repeated accusations that the government's policies had seen the National Health Service (NHS) ill-equipped to deal with the crisis, Johnson stated on April 30 that the country was "past the peak" of COVID-19 deaths, despite the following week recording an additional 25,000 infectees and around 5,000 deaths.

The UK death toll of over 30,000 is also the worst recorded in Europe, being second only to the United States in global rankings. The UK's death rate has, however, begun to level off from the beginning of May onwards �� a fact that would appear to give credit to the wide-ranging policy of shutting down schools and non-essential workplaces, as well as restricting outdoor recreation and travel for individual citizens.

Dissension also remains on when, and indeed if, lockdown measures are to be curtailed. Thursday saw First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon arguing for the extension of existing containment measures in Scotland, stating that any easing of restrictions would be "very, very risky."

Likewise, the new leader of the opposition Labour Party, Keir Starmer, has repeatedly called for the government to clarify its "lockdown exit strategy" and a cross-party "national consensus" in the parliament this week. The prime minister is otherwise expected to reveal his government's full exit strategy this Sunday � a policy that will likely attempt to elaborate on returning non-essential employees to work whilst maintaining adequate social distancing measures.