Stalled Talks With Gantz May Buy Netanyahu More Time, But 4th Election Risky for Both

MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 17th April, 2020) The stalled talks between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his rival, Benny Gantz of the Blue and White party, on a unity government may be the former's ploy to buy more time, but both opponents are likely to face serious challenges should a fourth election take place, experts told Sputnik.

In mid-March, Gantz won a mandate to form a government with the recommendations of 61 lawmakers in the 120-seat Knesset, a rather thin margin. Lacking a few seats for forming a centrist coalition government, he entered into talks on a national unity government with Netanyahu at the latter's invitation in order to jointly address the national crisis prompted by the spread of the novel coronavirus disease, COVID-19.

Yet, the parties failed to reach a unity government deal before the deadline, and Israeli President Reuven Rivlin on Thursday sent the mandate to the Knesset, tasking lawmakers with forming a government within 21 days. This also effectively gives Gantz and Netanyahu three more weeks to strike a deal. Otherwise, Israel may already head to a fourth round of voting after the previous ones failed to produce a coalition government.

At this point, nobody can say for sure if the continuing negotiations between the two rivals would yield any result, Prof. Eyal Zisser, vice rector of the Tel Aviv University, told Sputnik.

"It's hard to say, because Ganz lost most of his political cards when he decided to join Netanyahu and tried to establish with him a coalition government. Netanyahu feels much stronger politically and this is why he is less flexible," Zisser said, noting that whether the country would be plunged into its fourth election might be decided in the course of next several days.

Gideon Rahat, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute and a professor in the Department of Political Science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, similarly noted that, probably, the only people who knew whether a unity government deal may be reached were Gantz and Netanyahu themselves.

"Netanyahu holds the key to it and, of course, the big question is whether he is buying time like he did in more than a year. He buys time again and again. What we will see is him trying to buy some more time or maybe even to protect himself for some more time from having to deal with the allegations against him in the court," Rahat asserted in his comments to Sputnik.

Zisser, at the same time, did not rule out that the fourth election may be an endgame for Netanyahu.

"Yes, Netanyahu is now stronger politically because of the coronavirus crisis and also because many of Gantz supporters left him after he joined Netanyahu," he said.

The expert noted, however, that Netanyahu might, after all, be trying to reach a deal with Gantz over the concerns that the Supreme Court's pending ruling may prevent him from forming a government serving as prime minister due to his corruption trial.

An opinion poll published by Israel's Channel 12 on Monday showed a surge in Netanyahu's popular support amid the coronavirus crisis and unity talks.

According to the survey, if elections were held now, Netanyahu's Likud could win as many as 40 seats, which would have enabled the party to form a coalition government with its traditional right-wing allies.

Rahat, however, debunked the idea that another election would play into Netanyahu's hands as Likud, instead of one major opponent, would be challenged by two different competing camps after the opposition split in the wake of Gantz's move to enter coalition talks with Likud.

"He wouldn't benefit because if he would have to run against the divided opposition, it would be problematic for him," the expert said.

He suggested that in the possible next election, Gantz would run against Netanyahu separately or together with the Labor party, while Yair Lapid, a former ally of Gantz's Blue and White, might run together with former defense chief Avigdor Lieberman, who chairs the secular nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party.

"Yair Lapid and Avigdor Lieberman ... [may] run with the secular ticket or the anti-religious ticket. And I think this would be a strong ticket," Rahat asserted.

The expert explained that the anti-religious approach might be particularly appealing due to the spread of the coronavirus, since representatives of the Ultra-Orthodox religious community have been disobeying the coronavirus rules and synagogues remained open even as a partial lockdown was imposed and cases continued to climb, which some believe led to the surge in infections. There is also strong public criticism against Israeli Health Minister Yaakov Litzman, an Ultra-Orthodox rabbi himself.

There are now almost 13,000 COVID-19 cases and 148 deaths reported in Israel.

According to Zisser, Gantz's prospects in the next election, should it take place, were dim after he broke one of his key election promises not to consider joining the government of Netanyahu under any circumstances, citing the latter's indictment.

"Gantz is finished. After he was ready to cooperate with Netanyahu I doubt if those who voted for him last time (and actually voted against Netanyahu) will vote for him again," the expert stressed.

Rahat, on the other hand, asserted that Gantz did not really have much of a choice in the matter, as his bloc lacked seats to form a government, while the coronavirus crisis that hit Israel called for action.

"He would be able to say that, well, you know, I tried everything I put my self-respect and my interests aside and I did my best with clean hands to get into a unity government, but I didn't want to give up on specific principles ... His positive message was that he will defend a liberal democracy, and that is what he is trying to do in his coalition agreement," the expert said.

Rahat underlined that Netanyahu's only gain from the fourth election would be buying time.

"This time, the next elections would not be in the next few months because of the coronavirus so he will buy more time. If this is his main strategy then that is good for him whatever the result of the elections would be," he concluded.