OPINION - Turkish-Kurdish Battle in Northeast Syria May Be Stiff, Multiple Casualties Possible
GENOA (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 09th October, 2019) The looming fight between the Kurdish forces and the Turkish troops in northern Syria is likely to be very fierce and result in multiple casualties, Mahmoud Afandi, the secretary of the Syrian opposition movement Popular Diplomacy, told Sputnik.
On Saturday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Ankara could launch a military operation in neighboring Syria, east of the Euphrates River, in coming days, in order to clear the border area of Kurdish militants, create a security zone, and accommodate Syrian refugees. Meanwhile the United States, who used to support Kurdish forces in northern Syria, has started to withdraw troops from the area. The White House stated it would not "support or be involved in" Turkey's operation.
"Now the question is: what will be the consequences and losses? Most likely, it will be a stiff battle. Kurds have a lot of weapons and an excellent military discipline. They also know the territory well," Afandi said.
The only smart solution for the Kurds now would be an agreement with Damascus, he said.
"But most likely, the United States would not allow it. They [Kurds] did have a chance to make a deal with Damascus, when they started negotiations on it with the Russian help just after the US announced for the first time its intention to withdraw troops. However, they did not go on with the talks after some time, being influenced by the Americans. Now they are trapped," Afandi said.
Earlier on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said Washington continued to provide Kurdish fighters with financial aid and armaments.
The decision to withdraw and make way for the Turkish operation was dictated by the NATO partnership between the United States and Turkey, Afandi believes.
Trump's decision is seen in Ankara as a green light to proceed with at least part of their plans with regard to northeast Syria, Gallia Lindenstrauss, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, specializing in Turkish foreign policy, told Sputnik.
She noted, however, that there was still "a lot of frustration with regard to Turkey" in the Congress and administration, which means that relations between the two countries will remain stranded.
Afandi noted that the Turkish operation could be justified as a measure of self-protection by the existing Adana agreement between Turkey and Syria. Its first article claims that Syria, on the basis of the principle of reciprocity, will not permit any activity that emanates from its territory aimed at jeopardizing the security and stability of Turkey.
The Adana agreement was signed by Syria and Turkey on October 20, 1998, with the aim to restore bilateral relations following a crisis that erupted due to Syria sheltering militants linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is officially listed as a terrorist organization in Turkey. According to the agreement, Syria had to halt PKK activities on its territory, which included a ban on logistical, material and financial support for the group, as well as prohibit the establishment of camps, shelters and facilities for militant training within its borders. Turkey, in turn, gained the opportunity to take appropriate measures to deter the terrorist threat.