Tories Likely to Draw 'Wrong Lessons' From Past Mistakes When Picking New Leader - Expert

MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 21st October, 2022) Tories are likely to draw the wrong lessons from both Boris Johnson's and Liz Truss's tenures as UK prime minister when choosing the next head of the government, Director of the Democracy Institute think-tank Patrick Basham told Sputnik.

A race is underway within the ruling Conservative Party to pick a new leader after Truss stepped down on Thursday following six tumultuous weeks in office after she succeeded Johnson. Both of them resigned amid public scandals, plunging party's support among the British voters to historic lows. The new prime minister will be announced on October 28.

Potential candidates will need at least 100 nominations from Conservative lawmakers to enter the race. Since there are 357 Tory members of parliament, the maximum number of candidates is limited to three.

"In policy terms, I expect the Tories also to draw the wrong lessons from both the Johnson and Truss governments. They probably will conclude that only a very moderate, bland, rhetorically inoffensive prime minister can appeal to the majority of British voters who have soured on the Tories," Basham said.

The Conservatives want to get through the process as quickly as possible, in contrast to the previous leadership election that lasted from mid-July to early September. However, Basham believes that the ruling party misunderstands what went wrong that time.

The issue, according to Basham, was not the competition's length but the quality of candidates, who by and large were perceived as "promising uninspiring, 'Johnson Lite' governments under their respective leaderships, which did not attract voters at all."

Now, the party will most likely throw its weight behind someone who is not a committed Brexiteer and will keep high government spending and taxation, continue "inane and illogical energy policies," maintain economic sanctions against Russia as well as will not cap legal migration and address the issue of illegal border crossings, the expert said.

Following Truss's resignation, media have been speculating about who will succeed her, naming former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt, Defense Minister Ben Wallace and Secretary of State for International Trade Kemi Badenoch, as well as Boris Johnson.

As things stand now, Wallace decided not to take part in the race, while Mordaunt became the first one to officially throw her hat into the ring. So far, Sunak, Johnson and Mordaunt have emerged as leaders in terms of known support among their fellow lawmakers.

When speaking about the likely candidates, Basham described Sunak as "the choice of the Tory party establishment" as he is expected to stick to the party's current political and economic positions.

"The British Deep State is also keen on Sunak because he is a globalist and he will not rock the boat on domestic or foreign policy before the next British election when the Deep State assumes that its preferred candidate, Labour party leader Sir Keir Starmer, will be victorious," the expert said.

Johnson, who has the proven ability to win elections as well as residual popularity within the party, is seen as a less likely winner since many Tory lawmakers dislike him and blame him for the party's rapid decline, the expert said.

"His return to power would make it quite difficult for the party to move beyond the failures and scandals of his previous government," Basham added.

Basham himself suggested that Badenoch could be the one who was best suited to lead the Tories to victory in the next election for several reasons, including her youth, gender and immigrant background, which would make it harder for the Labour and media to brand her as "a sexist, a misogynist, a racist, and an extremist, which is what they call every politician on the right of the political spectrum who defends traditional values, a secure border, and a rational immigration policy."

"Far more importantly, the comparatively inexperienced Badenoch demonstrated during this summer's leadership contest, where she came fourth, that she is smarter and has greater powers of persuasion than her older, more experienced peers," Basham continued, praising her combination of "anti-woke, pro-free speech, pro-free market, common sense conservatism as well as her "youthfulness, engaging personality, and relative distance from the larger failures of the Johnson and Truss governments."

As the Truss government collapsed, Labour's Starmer did not waste time and called for a snap general election, citing the economic crisis caused by what he described as the "chaos" of the Conservatives.

Considering their polling numbers, Tories are not expected to acquiesce to Labour's demands. However, Basham said there was a "no more than one percent" chance that the next Tory leader manages to win the respect and imagination of the voters, and tries to capitalize on this advantage by calling an early election.

In any case, Basham expects the next prime minister to stay in office until the next electoral contest, otherwise "the (Tory) party will become a complete laughingstock not only to Labour and Liberal Democrat voters but to most Conservative voters, too."

"So, the next prime minister will be the horse that the Tory party rides either to electoral victory or defeat," Basham concluded.