MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 11th August, 2020) Following the most contentious Belarusian presidential election in its modern history, many have taken to streets across the country protesting the official results, potentially risking plunging Belarus into political and social turmoil, with Western countries potentially seeking to influence the situation via different methods, including a new round of sanctions, experts told Sputnik.
The election ended with incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko winning over 80 percent of the vote, according to preliminary results. Yet, not everyone believes in the validity of the results, certainly not the campaign of another presidential candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who claims that she is the one who has won the majority of the vote. This creates a potentially explosive situation, with some already saying that the rule of Lukashenko is ready to collapse and all that is needed is some pressure, including from the outside.
While Lukashenko has enjoyed congratulations from most of the former Soviet republics as well as Turkey, China, and Venezuela, the West does not seem to be in a particular hurry to recognize him as president. Mark Sleboda, an international relations and security analyst, thinks that the rest of the non-Western countries will follow suit.
"Following China, Kazakhstan's, and Russia's lead, I think eventually most of the non-Western world will accept the official results of the election in Belarus, though many may wait and hedge their bets until protests in the country either peter out or, less likely, result in a change of government that makes it unnecessary," Sleboda told Sputnik.
According to the analyst, the Western countries are in "regime change mode," meaning that even if Lukashenko manages to weather the current wave of public discontent, his international standing will be undermined even further, leaving him with less space for political maneuvering.
"Western sanctions being imposed against him and the Belarussian government are likely, and this will further economically weaken Belarus, back Lukashenko into a corner where he will be unable to continue his game of playing Russia and the West off each other for advantage, and thus increase Russia's leverage over Belarus," Sleboda said.
The expert has added that the European Union and the United States are aware of that development but unlikely to pursue a different course due to their domestic politics.
"Recognition of the official results of the election in Belarus by any Western government would almost certainly be played as them 'giving a gift to Putin' by their political opponents at home," he said.
At the same time, not everyone agrees the West, in particular the US, will bother with additional sanctions against the current Belarusian authorities.
"I do not believe the U.S. will introduce sanctions against Lukashenko or Belarus as a result of the election. This is not a matter affecting U.S. national security. I suspect that there will not be any public comment about the result, except perhaps to caution both the government and the protesters to take a peaceful and non-violent approach to the controversy," Bill Boerum, a political activist and civic leader from California, told Sputnik.
The current protests have demonstrated an unprecedented level of social awakening, for the first time since it became independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, as they are not enough to change the country's course, experts say.
"Unless the protests of the official results grow from the hundreds to several thousand that it is now by all accounts, to hundreds of thousands, and sustain that public presence and momentum, it is unlikely that they will change the official results of the election and Lukashenko will remain, President of Belarus, if weakened domestically and internationally," Sleboda said, noting that despite media reports, Lukashenko still has strong support in the country, especially in rural areas.
Boerum, on his part, thinks that the protests are a significant phenomenon.
"Going forward the legitimacy of the opposition will be enhanced if it conducts itself in a non-violent manner," he said.
The relationship between Belarus and Russia has not been particularly impressive lately, with both countries having grievances toward one another. Still, both sides find themselves in a situation when they have to move past their difference to make their relationship at least somewhat workable.
"Lukashenko has cleverly left Moscow with little options but gritting their teeth and accepting 'the devil they know' over the chaos of street revolution which has the potential, no matter how slight, for the country to be geopolitically flipped to the West like Ukraine," Sleboda said.
The Belarusian president, however, is hardly in a position of strength, especially in the face of likely western sanctions.
The expert believes that Lukashenko now "must forge a new one with both the Kremlin and his own people quickly, or he will go down in flames within the next few years, and possibly take Belarus with him."
