The French cabinet reshuffle has sparked numerous reactions among both supporters of President Emmanuel Macron and the opposition, with the former finding it smart and the latter declaring it a joke
BRUSSELS (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 08th July, 2020) The French cabinet reshuffle has sparked numerous reactions among both supporters of President Emmanuel Macron and the opposition, with the former finding it smart and the latter declaring it a joke.
On Monday, Alexis Kohler, the chief of staff to French leader, unveiled the country's new government, headed by little known Jean Castex. The change of government is taking place as a court launches an inquiry into the Edouard Philippe government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, viewed by many as quite lacking, which makes a plausible reason for making some cabinet changes. Another rationale is said to be Philippe's popularity which has managed to eclipse Macron's, making him a potential political rival. In that regard, Philippe's replacement is not expected to present a similar problem.
Analyzing the cabinet reshuffle and the economic situation in France, Charles Gave, an economist, financial funds manager and the founder of the Institute of Liberties think tank in Paris, told Sputnik that Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire's speeches about reviving the economy after the COVID crisis evoked a smile, as the minister did not control the currency or the country's budget and, therefore, could hardly give a real impetus.
According to the economist, despite the application of the Keynesian fiscal stimulus � a way to increase government spending financed by government borrowing � for 40 years, France's economic growth has been lower and lower with the cash flow of businesses in the country, gross self-financing margin, being half that of Germany or the United Kingdom.
"Meanwhile, the government explains to us that we must stimulate consumption, without realizing that growth comes from companies and not from government spending ... But increasing state spending gives politicians the impression that this will allow them to be re-elected. This is the application of the magic thought process: the recipe does not work, so we are doing more. It is like the trader who loses money on the stock market and then doubles his stake," Gave said.
Despite the fact that Europe's monetary policy is not working, the European Central Bank (ECB) will double the stake. However, creating money does not mean creating wealth, the economist said.
"Could we witness a rapid economic recovery, as the markets indicate, very optimistically? Please note that I would rather describe the current rise in stocks on the stock market as a 'misery increase.' If the central bank goes wild and threatens the basic confidence in the currency, the only thing to buy are corporate stocks that have nothing to do with the state. It may be surprising, but you have to take the stock market risk to protect yourself. We live in a crazy period in Europe. Better to buy Asian stocks. At least in Asia, they have not monetized COVID like they did in Europe," Gave added.
According to the specialist, France lives in its bubble, as the authorities do not realize that the whole sector of small and medium businesses and micro-enterprises is on its knees. The scale of the crisis will be clear only at the start of the school year, when the relevant figures will be revealed. In France, 12 percent of jobs are in the catering industry, restaurants, cafes and others, and two-thirds will close.
"And meanwhile, president Macron is preparing for his re-election in two years with his government reshuffle. It is high treason to the French population. Technically, as Macron has nothing to fear on his left, he does his little 'Sarkozy bis' act and completes his butchering the center right party (LR). It is so visible that it is tiring. And then we amuse the gallery with the appointment of lawyer Dupont-Moretti to justice. The institution is demonetized, politicized and this decision seems to have been concocted by a communication agency; it is completely artificial. Macron is narcissus. What strikes me is that this is the first time that we have had a president who does not like his country," Gave concluded.
Commenting on the reshuffle, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, the leader of the Gaullist Debout la France (France Arise) party and a 2017 presidential candidate wrote on Facebook that people wanted to change the country's policy but keep the same prime minister, while Macron did the exact opposite. According to the politician, the president suppressed the position of prime minister "by taking a docile stranger who will obey him, with a chief of staff that Edouard Philippe had refused." Dupont-Aignan slammed the new cabinet as "a government of communication" that would pursue the same policy, have "same patches on the problems, same artificial solutions, nothing new."
"In Justice, the appointment of lawyer [Eric] Dupond-Moretti is an insult to honest people or women. He declares that he does not want to put anyone in prison ... It is terrible what is happening in our country, it is the door open to an even more lax justice. At the handover ceremony, in the presence of his predecessor Belloubet, he began by declaring that he was concerned about the situation of the criminals in jail. The Macron system has found in Dupond-Moretti its best defender!" Dupont-Aignan added.
Gilles Lebreton, a member of the European Union representing West France, told Sputnik that the so-called mini-reshuffle was a disappointment for an alleged "total renewal." According to the lawmaker, while three "comic characters" � ex-Justice Minister Nicole Belloubet, ex-Interior Minister Christophe Castaner and ex-government spokeswoman Sibeth Ndiaye � were replaced, two new "comic characters" have been appointed � Culture Minister Roselyne Bachelot and Justice Minister Eric Dupond-Moretti described as a "vociferating tank."
"For the rest, the old team remains without surprise. [Gerald] Darmanin cannot be worse at the department of the interior than Castaner, but his problems in justice, with a complaint for rape, might reduce his tenure. The promise of a strong ecology department is not even kept, which is saddening the Greens of course. Macron seems hard pressed ... What is more, he has created himself a formidable competitor in the person of Edouard Philippe, the former PM, who has always remained LR [Les Republicains]. E. Philippe waits for his time," Lebreton added.
Meanwhile, Pierre Vercauteren, a political scientist, a specialist on France and a professor at the UCLouvain university in Belgium, told Sputnik that the reshuffle was the government's final stretch to prepare for the next presidential elections, as there is no questioning of the main political axes but rather some new inflections, with a desire for quick completion, for example, pension reform or taking into account environmental imperatives.
"For the rest, the government reshuffle is very clever. The ex-LRs [are] within the government, the Republicans are doing very well: Le Maire is comforted and Gerald Darmanin, an energetic man, goes to the interior. Roseline Bachelot, ex-minister of Jacques Chirac, becomes minister of culture. The Macron team cannibalizes the right," Vercauteren said.
The specialist added that Dupont-Moretti's appointment as the keeper of the seals was a surprise, calling it "a good take of war for the Macron group."
This reshuffle, according to the professor, also proves the weakness of Macron's party, LREM (La Republique en Marche), that does not have many large formats to propose for a ministerial job. There are far too many neophytes at LREM, he added.
At the same time, Vercauteren said that prime minister Castex was a good cast, as he knows the country's interior well since his tenure as former mayor of the Prades commune in the country's southwest. In addition, he knows how to work with Macron and could help the government in dealing with the yellow vests.
"Castex also has a decision capacity and is respected by the social partners. This will help president Macron, especially for negotiating his pension reform with the trade unions. He will have to work fast: his government only has a window of opportunity of 12 to 15 months to pass legislation," Vercauteren added.
The political scientist also said that Macron could hardly suffer from the shadow of the former prime minister as it was in the days of Chirac and Edouard Balladur, prime minister under Francois Mitterrand's presidency who had promised the former that he would not run in the 1995 presidential election but did not keep the promise.
