ANALYSIS - US Exit From Open Skies Unlikely To Severely Damage Treaty's Value For Remaining Parties

MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 07th July, 2020) Washington's withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty will unlikely have severe consequences for the treaty's value for the rest of its signatories, although this is expected to reduce chances for lowering tensions with Russia and might even lead to further escalation, experts told Sputnik.

On May 21, US President Donald Trump announced his country was quitting the deal due to long-standing alleged non-compliance by Russia. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo specified shortly later that Washington would withdraw in six months unless Moscow commits to observing the pact. Russia denied US claims of breaching the pact and said later that Moscow saw no reason to trust Washington's claims that it could reconsider the decision to pull out.

Marc Finaud, the head of arms proliferation at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, suggests that the Open Skies Treaty complements rules set in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Vienna Document regarding transparency of military movements and will still be useful for its signatories even after the US exit.

"The Open Skies Treaty can indeed retain all its usefulness for the remaining states parties as a means of providing transparency and confidence in the non-offensive character of military movements and exercises. It complements the existing system of mutual notifications and invitations of the OSCE Vienna Document," Finaud told Sputnik.

Finaud called the Trump administration decision "self-defeating," noting that Washington will not only lose access to the bulk of military information, but also risks to trigger a further escalation in relations with Moscow.

"It is an incomprehensible self-defeating move since the United States will lose access to information about military activities in Russia. It is another case of unilateralism and defiance of multilateral arms control efforts that are based on mutual benefits. Washington can of course keep other channels of communications with Moscow, but withdrawing its inspectors from this framework will reduce contacts and opportunities to lower tensions or prevent misperceptions that can lead to escalation," the expert stated.

The expert said that both the United States and Russia should make concessions to prevent the heightening of tensions, hinting at the possible revival of the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty as an attempt to reassess the existing differences between Russia and NATO.

Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Nonproliferation, told Sputnik that the amount of data, which Russia would lose access to after US pullout, will not critically affect the value of the Open Skies Treaty.

"OST [the Open Skies Treaty] is quite valuable even without the US, given that the majority of Russian flights have been over Europe and only relatively small share over the US. Russia will lose some important data, but the decrease will probably not be critical. That decrease will have to be weighed against the value of data collected over Europe and the political value of preserving one of the last confidence-building regimes," Sokov stated.

At the same time, the expert stressed that Washington's pullout would lead to asymmetrical access to military data, as the US would continue to receive information from its NATO allies.

"The biggest challenge to the survival of the regime will be asymmetry of access to data: US will continue to enjoy full access to data NATO will collect over Russia. I simply cannot fathom a situation when all European NATO states will deny Washington the data they have at their disposal. Some might, some will not under any circumstances. Of course, they will not transfer raw data from OST aircraft, but overall data sharing will include everything from OST flights," Sokov said.

The expert suggested that Russia could also soon withdraw from the treaty given the existing tensions between the countries, stating that it would depend on the results of the upcoming presidential election in the US.

"Everything can be resolved, but political climate favors conflict, not cooperation. Consequently, I think there is a high probability that Russia will withdraw from OST as well � perhaps next spring or summer. Much will depend on the outcome of the election in the US, other political developments, but so far I do not see the ground for optimism," he concluded.

Senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey Joshua Pollack, in turn, noted the treaty's remaining importance for ensuring security in Europe, while the exchange of data between Russia and the United States could be held through other channels.

"Without the United States, Open Skies cannot be effective as an arms control verification tool, but it can still serve other purposes related to European security. There are plenty of communications channels between Washington and Moscow, so I do not think that should be a major reason for concern about the US exit," Pollack said.

The expert also noted the importance of the outcome of the US election for further developments in the issue, adding that the Trump administration was not interested in considering any alternatives to the deal.