RPT: ANALYSIS - N. Korea Symbolically Shows Growing Frustration With South By Destroying Liaison Office

MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 17th June, 2020) The dramatic demolition of a joint liaison office by North Korea is mostly a symbolic gesture that shows its mounting anger at the South, but all the latest developments on the Korean Peninsula promise no soon return to the previous comparatively peaceful relations, experts told Sputnik.

Earlier in the day, North Korea blew up the inter-Korean liaison office in the industrial complex located in the border town of Kaesong. According to the official Korean Central news Agency (KCNA), the move reflected "the mindset of the enraged people" angered by activists from South Korea who have sent balloons with leaflets criticizing policies of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un across the border.

This comes after North Korea announced that it would from now on treat South Korea as "enemy" and threatened retaliation for the latter's inability to stop the leafleting campaign conducted by North Korean defectors.

COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS UNLIKELY

The demolition of the building was a political move showing North Korea's dismay with South Korea and erasing all the progress achieved by the neighboring countries since their historic summit in 2018, Antoine Bondaz, a research fellow at France's Foundation for Strategic Research think tank, told Sputnik.

"The destruction of the building is highly symbolic: coming a few days after the 20th anniversary of the first inter-Korean summit, it is the first time the country has destroyed an infrastructure closely linked to inter-Korean relations. Despite the threats in 2019, the Keumgang tourist complex built in partnership with South Korea and unoccupied since 2008, for example, has not been destroyed," Bondaz said.

At the same time, the expert noted that the destruction of the joint liaison office per se would not cause significant technical problems and did not prevent officials from the North and the South from communicating in the future.

James Edward Hoare, a research associate at London's school of Oriental and African Studies and former senior UK diplomat in Pyongyang, similarly noted that the demolition of the liaison office was mostly a symbolic move on the part of North Korea, which is formally referred to as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

"The office has not really functioned for some time and it is in DPRK territory. It says that the North does not want anything more to do with the South because it has allowed anti-DPRK balloons. If they want to talk, they can find channels. It is a symbolic gesture," Hoare told Sputnik.

According to Bondaz, North Korea is hardly expecting that this move would help it win any concessions from its neighbor, but a more hostile approach to Seoul may also serve Pyongyang's domestic purposes.

"North Korea is putting forward a well-known enemy dialectic that makes South Korea the scapegoat for its internal problems. The COVID-19 pandemic has in fact had a major economic impact, making it possible at the same time to strengthen national cohesion and satisfy the interests of part of the elite, especially the military," the researched said.

Hoare, in turn, suggested Pyongyang's move is in fact aimed at Washington as the nuclear talks between the two remain deadlocked and the US focus has clearly shifted to addressing the COVID-19 crisis and anti-racism protests at home.

"I think that this is really aimed at the US. They do not want to attack Trump or the US directly in the hope that they can persuade the US to re-engage. The ROK [South Korea] is a surrogate target. The DPRK knows that if it wants to, it can probably easily get the ROK back to talks, especially while Moon [Jae-in] is president [of South Korea]," the former diplomat explained.

SCALE OF NORTH'S POSSIBLE MILITARY ACTION UNCLEAR

Meanwhile, the General Staff of the Korean People's Army has said that North Korea was studying the possibility of deploying its army to zones demilitarized in accordance with intra-Korean agreements. The KCNA reported that the North Korean army would "immediately and consistently" implement any decision or decree of the party and government.

According to Bondaz, North Korea is likely to keep its word and take some military action as announced, but its possible extent is a question.

"The second issue is to anticipate the dynamics of military escalation. In case of military action in the DMZ, South Korea will be obliged to take reciprocal action. What is to be hoped is that a potential incident does not lead to a sharp rise in tensions on the peninsula," he said.

The researcher noted that the relations between the two countries had been deteriorating for quite some time as Pyongyang did not see South Korea as playing a facilitating role in the now stalled negotiations with the US or being able to offer it significant economic concessions any longer.

All these recent developments, however, do not necessarily constitute a dramatic U-turn in the relations between the Koreas, Hoare noted.

"It shows a growing sense of frustration with the general way things have developed, especially with the US. And Moon shows no sign of not wanting to have better relations with the North. So if they get some change, they could go back to being nice � if not, they will continue to build up the rhetoric and make symbolic gestures," the expert suggested.

Yet, a return to the status quo in bilateral relations seemed unlikely in a short run, according to Bondaz.

"A short-term improvement between the two Koreas now seems highly unlikely. Despite the broad victory of the presidential party in the April 2020 parliamentary elections, South Korea does not have the room for manoeuvre to convince North Korea of the need to maintain good relations," the researcher explained.

Bondaz underscored the importance of stability on the Korean Peninsula and argued that South Korea wanted to avoid a military escalation in the region.