MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 26th May, 2020) The decision of US President Donald Trump to launch the withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty will undermine not only the US national security, but the international security framework as a whole, experts told Sputnik.
Last week, Trump stated that the US will pull out from the treaty due to alleged violations of the agreement by Russia. The accord, signed in 1992, allows all 34 countries that have ratified the treaty to conduct unarmed surveillance flights over one another.
In response to the US decision, Russia has denied the US accusations and said it intended to further fully comply with all the provisions of the Open Skies Treaty as long as it is in force, and expected other signatories of the deal to respect it as well. At the same time, Washington's withdrawal was met with wide-spread criticism both in the US and globally. France, Germany, Belgium, Spain, Finland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Sweden, among others, have all expressed regret over the US decision. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has urged the United States to reconsider its move.
YET ANOTHER MISTAKE IN US POLICY ON INTERNATIONAL TREATIES
Instead of pulling out from the vital agreement, the US should have addressed its concerns over Russia's compliance within the framework of the treaty, Matthew Bunn, professor of Practice of National Security and Foreign Policy at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy school of Government, told Sputnik.
"I believe the U.S decision to withdraw from the Open Skies treaty is a mistake, which will undermine rather than strengthen U.S. national security. Legitimate concerns about Russian compliance should have been addressed through joint initiatives by a coalition of other treaty parties,'' Bunn said.
Erika Simpson, professor of international politics in the department of political science at Ontario-based Western University, in her comments to Sputnik agreed with Bunn that the withdrawal will negatively affect the international security framework.
"Since taking office, the U.S. President has erratically dismantled the pillars of global security. He seems intent on starting limited conflicts that could lead to nuclear war. Withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty is yet another blow to North American security as well as world peace," Simpson, who also serves as the president of Canadian Peace Research Association, said.
However, the Open Skies Treaty is not as important for international security as some may portray it, Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow and the director of the Research Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution, told Sputnik.
"It is not a huge deal. Russia and the US both have other means of monitoring each other's major military activities. However, I see it as one more piece in the gradual erosion of arms control and the gradual, ongoing downward trajectory of US-Russia relations. I regret both these developments and therefore would prefer that Open Skies survive," O'Hanlon said.
Despite the US decision, the Open Skies Treaty is unlikely to cease to exist as the signatories plan to remain committed to the accord, Bunn noted.
"There unlikely be any alternative treaty. The existing Open Skies Treaty may well continue without the United States, if the other parties believe it continues to serve their interests. It should be noted that frequent and high-resolution satellite photography is becoming more and more widely available, and provides at least a partial substitute for Open Skies overflights," the Harvard professor said.
US PAVES WAY FOR WITHDRAWAL FROM NEW START TREATY
According to experts, by exiting the Open Skies Treaty, the US might be preparing the ground for the pullout from the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), the last remaining arms control accord in force between Moscow and Washington.
The treaty, signed in 2010, is set to expire next February. Russia has repeatedly invited the United States to extend the New START for another five years without preconditions. However, the Trump administration has signaled that it favors negotiating an amended arms control regime that would also include China and possibly the United Kingdom and France. Beijing though said this month that it did not intend to partake in any trilateral nuclear arms control talks with the United States and Russia, despite Washington's constant requests.
"The withdrawal will create a very negative atmosphere for discussions of potential further arms control agreements to follow New START, which the Trump administration says it seeks ... I think the survival of New START is hanging by a thread. Extending New START would be very much in the national interest of both the United States and Russia," Bunn said.
The two countries should "use the period of predictability" provided by extending the New START to negotiate new agreements on arms control, the Harvard professor underlined.
Mark Sleboda, an international relations and security analyst, is an agreement with Bunn that the future of New START remains in limbo.
"Pulling out of Open Skies is merely a prelude to not renewing the New Start Treaty, the last major arms control treaty, which expires next year. Despite Russia's increasingly desperate and vocal entreaties, the US refuses to begin any necessary discussions for renewing it. Indeed they have given every indication they intend to let it expire and restart the arms race in earnest. Without Open Skies in force, it will be easier to let New Start lapse with the argument that there is no ability in place to verify compliance and ensure transparency," Sleboda told Sputnik.
However, the expert believes that the US pullout from Open Skies in reality is aimed at Beijing, which Washington sees as a mounting threat to its security.
"The second rationale at work with the US unilateral withdrawal of the Open Skies Treaty is the fact that it really has little or nothing to do with Russia, it is primarily about China. This is the exact same playbook for the Trump administration's unilateral withdrawal of the INF Treaty limiting land-based short and medium range ballistic missiles and launchers: blame Russia for violating the treaty on some trumped up accusations, that most experts on both sides agree could and should have been dealt with in the treaties' consultative framework, as the justification for unilaterally withdrawing from the treaty, then immediately begin geopolitically operating in the new freedom of maneuver against not Russia, but China," Sleboda underlined.
Washington seeks to close a perceived "missile gap" with Beijing by already starting the production and deployment of missiles off China's coast, according to the expert.
Those actions are triggered by the belief in the US government that it no longer has naval primacy over China, the analyst added.
"The withdrawal from the Open Skies treaty as a prelude to letting New Start expire is similarly primarily motivated by geopolitical concerns with China. Although China has only a fraction of the nuclear arsenal of the US and Russia, the US wants the limits on the number of nuclear warheads and missiles it can deploy removed. The Pentagon has already deployed 'more useable low yield' nuclear warheads on US submarines and feels an increased number of these would be useful in a naval confrontation with China in the South China sea," Sleboda said.
As China is not restricted by arms control treaties, the US seeks to forego all existing treaties in this field as it believes that that "a new multi-player global arms race has already begun," according to the security experts.
"The US wants these last Cold War era arms control treaties gone because it wants an open arms race with China and Russia. It believes that it can win that arms race, either economically or in use," Sleboda noted.
After announcing its decision to pullout from the Open Skies Treaty, the US is set to leave the agreement within six months.
In a month or two, Hungary and Canada, as the Open Skies Treaty depositories, should convene a conference in connection with Washington's withdrawal from the deal, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Sputnik on Monday.
However, no information is available so far, according to the Russian deputy foreign minister.
Now, it is important to rule out the transfer of data received by the countries participating in the Open Skies Treaty to third countries that are not parties to the accord. If the data is transferred, it will be a gross violation of the "letter and spirit" of the treaty, Grushko has told Sputnik.
