NEW DELHI (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 24th May, 2020) The latest border skirmishes between India and China are a reminder that one of the world's longest unmarked frontiers still has a potential for tensions boiling over into something more destructive, Indian experts have told Sputnik.
The neighbors fought a deadly Himalayan war in 1962 and their soldiers have since repeatedly scuffled along the so-called Line of Actual Control, which they patrol according to their different perceptions of where it was drawn.
As early as in May, the two countries traded accusations of aggressive trespassing near the Pangong Lake in Ladakh and in the high-altitude Naku La Pass near Tibet in Sikkim. The face-off resulted in minor injuries to a dozen troops after they pelted each other with rocks.
"These border skirmishes � although they are very minor � might in the near future turn into something major," Namrata Hasija, a research fellow with the New Delhi-based Center for China Analysis and Strategy, has told Sputnik.
Beijing has become much more assertive in its foreign policy after President Xi Jinping first presented his vision of China Dream in 2013, which includes taking back Sikkim and Ladakh � called Little Tibet in China � after they were lost in "unequal treaties," Hasija said.
The clashes that took place on May 5 and May 9 are part of that larger picture, she argued. China has been "upping the ante" in the past two to three months, holding live drills in Tibet and ramping up economic and military cooperation with India's rival Pakistan.
The coronavirus crisis has put a damper on China's ambition but its ongoing project to build an economic corridor with Pakistan as well as joint military exercises near the Indian border and the promise to sell an aircraft carrier to Islamabad are a matter of concern for India.
"When we will see this flare-up is a different question because right now the world is battling� Covid. But China, if you look at all the activities it has done in two months, they are not putting down their China Dream. I think we will see more such activities along the borders in the coming years," Hasija said.
This month's escalation has again sparked debates about whether a "limited war" between the two rivals was a distinct possibility. The notion was last evoked in Chinese media three years ago when their troops engaged in a months-long standoff on the Doklam plateau.
Although not part of India, Doklam lies close to a narrow strip of land called "chicken's neck" that connects New Delhi to northeastern states and is seen as a strategic corridor. India sent troops in 2017 to support Bhutan's claim, raising the prospect of an armed conflict with China.
Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor in Chinese studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, told Sputnik that Chinese commentators were again discussing outlooks for a Sino-Indian war along the border, but argued it was unlikely.
"China may be tempted to wage a 'limited war' as India has refused to agree with China at the World Health Assembly meeting or has raised the South China Sea issue. However, such war appears to be remote given Indian conventional and strategic deterrence capabilities," he said.�
India and China have both pulled troops to the border after the recent skirmishes but there have been no reports of large-scale military mobilization by either side. Cumulatively, Kondapalli said, a thousand troops were deployed to the disputed western part of the border.
He added that China stood to lose a lot in the conflict, including its rising power and strategic objectives. Beijing has invested billions in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which India argues encroaches on its western territories.
Nevertheless, the tensions are far from over. Chinese infrastructure construction projects � roads, railways, airfields, fiber-optic cables, 5G towers and hydroelectric projects � continue to put military pressure on India.
While China's assertive behavior in the South China Sea and on Taiwan has been met with pushback from the United States, there is no military alliance between the US and India, making the border a potential target for further "exertion," the expert said.
